Sunday, June 8, 2025

POLITICS BY OTHER MEANS.( A diplomat's views)



BY K P PASWAN.

It was during the grea Hindu gathering known as the KUMBH in Prayagraj, I was accompanying the family members of an American Physicist with a Nobel in Physics. A devout Quaker with outstanding knowledge of Hindu scriptures happens to be my mentor, While travelling to New Delhi we overheard conversation among a group of passengers belonging to a neighbouring country. These conversation was heard while passing over Iran.

 One of the passangers was lamenting that the administration of Donald Trump has fallen into the hands of communal minded Hindus. At that time Ms Tulsi Gabard was being heard in the Senate for confirmation as the Director of American Intelligence. Mrs Gabbard is known for her deep knowledge of Hindu scriptures, At the time of hearing she swore by placing her hand on the Geeta. 
It is mentioned that the former American Secretary of State Tony Blinken was an anti Indian while Marco Rubio is an anti Pakisan and certainly not anti Indian.


style="text-align: justify;">At the Kumbh there were discussions on physics, politics and the economic   The journey of these great brains went unpublished and after witnessing these scientists having holy dip   was impressive and surprising. I am writing a blog titled as IN SEARCH OF A DEITY, this is likely  to be completed in time and may be presented a copy to my mentor and another copy to Carlo Rovelli a famous French physicist who is telling scientists that the cosmic dance of Lord Shiva repesent the flows of time but my own mentor thinks that the holy verses of Rigveda are flows of time. While a famous physicist who has become a pastor in South Africa wants to erase the concept of time to make the Deity more powerful. This scholar is also well versed in the  Upnishads.
                   Here we are concerned with politics. In this politics by other means Ms Tulsi Gabbard may be caosidered a major participants.

Leader of opposition in India has only one agenda. He wants to know the relations between Adani and Modi, Several incompetent politicians who are supporters of the leader of opposition raised this strange question in the parliament and created rukus when theey failed to get an answer. These India lawmakers never bothered to know the relations between Trump and Elon Musk and Trump's close relations with other business magnets.

Now readers may be curious to know the role of Ms Gabbard in the murky Indian politics. Ms Tulsi Gabbard was confirmed with convincing majority in the American Senate and now she is the head of powerful Intelligence Agency of the USA.

USA INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY is the powerful agency which is responsible for shaping and predicating the status of the mighty nation.American greatness has been a great idea but it has failed to build upon it and it is said that the end of America' unquestioned hegemony has already began. But what is the reality?.
The global economy is now multipolar and so too is global politics The US confronts autonomous allies as well as new political ideologies and actors unimagined at the high point of the American history. Advanced industrial society is  obsessed with the phenomenon of decline. Both the US under Trump and the Europe recurrently justify necessity of political and institutional innovations and activitism as a response to the threat of decline. America under Trump present themselves as fighting declinism.

The reality of declinismis however may be found in the official published views of th United States Intelligence Community. Thefirst report known as the GLOBAL TREND( Part 1) was published in 2008 this  report entitled GLOBAL TREND 2025 made this predictions " The US will remain the single most powerful country but will be less dominant The report was further revised in 2012. It declares " No country whether the US, China or any other big countries will be a hegemonic power, The empowerment of individuals and diffusion of power among states and from states to informal networks will have a dramatic impact, Largely reversing the historic rise of the US since WW1.
The reports focuss on the growth of powerful and internationallly active non state actors like business, religious organisations and above all criminal networks.

And Ms Tulsi Gabbard as the new head of this intelligence community has not altered the findings of the report.

America's image in India is at a favourable 70% and as the latest survey Pew Research Centre would indicate. It is a relationship that resonates in the popular mind and for an inspirational middle class, the American dreams attracts and beckons in myriad way.
       RAISINA DIALOGUE.                               
POLITICS BY OTHER MEANS. Mrs Gabbad is the right person to reveal the relations between Adani and Modi.  I was surprised to see that none of the stalwarts who questioned Adanis'friendship with Modi dared to meet Ms Gabbard. News channels supporting the Dynasty maintained studied silence. In fact no body in India even tried to draw the attention of Ms Gabbard. Most probably Narendra Modi will be lost in the crowd following the general election of 2029 and if somehow(unlikely) the dynasty has a friendly government than the dynasty may need the support of Adani for survival. If anti Modi forces are convinced that there is unholy nexus between Modi and a few Indian business magnets than the new FBI chie Kashyap Vinod Patel and the new Chief of American Intelligence community Ms Gabbard shall remove the cloud. But the fact of the matter is that  a few disgruntled politicians who are misguiding members of the dynasty are playing dirty games.
     FINAL THOUGHT.
 Raisina dialogue is important in the sense that for the first time a Chief of American Intelligence was participating in the debat. America;s role in a new political role has been elaborated in the report GLOBAL TREND (1&2) and as stated earlier Ms Gabbard has neither added nr expanded the report.  Trump is influenced by this findings and for this reasons he is abusing political heads of the world . But it appears that Modi;s baitors have no courage to ask specific question to a trusted lieutenant of Trump.

Wednesday, June 4, 2025

NEITHER RAM NOR IMAM.

BY K P PASWAN


 We had a number of PMs in India who worked within the meaning of democratic principles and made a place in history  The first PM Pt Nehru is still remembered as highly educated with scientific temper and not for any grand contribution in any field. A number of Technical institutes were opened but these steps were not enough for an underdeveloped country to impress the world. His policy of mixed economy and the five years plan failed to make India an emerging economy. He tried to become a Statesman when Cold war was gaining strength.But he failed as with mischievous smiles the American Secretary of State Faster Dulles mocked India under Pt Nehru.  Another American diplomat Else Worth Bunker overshadowed the Indian PM. And the humiliation of India reached its zenith in1962 when China  launched operation Land Grab and India suffered humiliating defeat.  He died in 1964 as a depressed man. 

Coming to  Atal Bihari Bajpayee, he was a patriot and  a flopped Hindi poet( 1998) As  the PM of democratic India, he headed a coalition of nearly two dozens political parties.  He is  still remembered by a large section of society for his speaking power and his ability to appease everybody  including traitors, patriots and antisocial elements.

He started his political career during the period of Jawaharlal Nehru. He won and lost  election several times, his main opponent as per records was Mrs Shubhadra Joshi who defeated Vajpayee many times but Vajpayee bounced back from different constituency. His political party Jansangh was known for pro Hindu stands. Balraj Madhok  was a formidable critics of Vajpayee  Madhok had to  quit the party or most probably   was shown the door. Vajpayee waited for the top position for long but he never got an opportunity to lead the country.  Certain political figures became PM with help from other smaller parties but Vajpayee was denied the premiership. It is surprising because Vajpayee was perhaps the most experienced politician of contemporary India.

This blogger cleared the UPSC and got the service of choice so  during this period I was in the best service of the time . I  quit the service under extreme pathetic condition. An young bride of 22 years educated in Miranda House touched her final destiny in a French Air crash and she is sleeping peacefully at the bottom of Atlantic.  I am no longer in the service , however the strict discipline does not   prevents me to remain a sincere critic. 

Before abusing K P Paswan in filthy language please study the nature of administration under this PM.

  Post Pt Nehru and before Narsingh Rao India witnessed three traitors as the PMs who compromised the security of India and acted as well wishers of Pakistan.

There was V P Singh who laid the foundation of social tension and we find Indra Kumar Gujral as the PM, who in the guise of Gujral Doctrine opened the door for ISI agents from Pakistan.  At last Vajpayee got an opportunity to lead the nation but he had to sacrifice his stand on Hindu religion.  Grand old party that is Congress lost its charm and the reason was the absence of a charismatic leader. With spread of education and the improved system of communication it was difficult for  the Congress party to remain in power. So now it was Vajpayee to steep in and occupy the chair of PM.

 We dont find any radical economic and political reforms but in order to remainin power , he virtually followed the ideology of Congress party. Narsingh Rao a former PM had already opened the Indian economy and Vajpayee had nothing to do further . With opening of Stock markets top business magnets of India were adjusting themselves  as per new environments. No credit should be given to Vajpayee for keeping the economy stable. 

 But it was his policy towards Pakistan which reflected his weakness not seen in the period of either Pt Nehru or Narsingh Rao. However there was difference in international politics. Communism collapsed and Russia lost its status of a Superpower. Cold war was hibernated and a new political order  engulfed the world. In this new world politics  there were several centre of powers and it was beyond the ability of Vajpayee to  bring India at per with new political order. He was only conscious of his image and nothing else. 

 Nuclear experiments in Pokhran was meaningless as India was already a nation with Nukes and the credit goes to Indira Gandhi. Further Pakistan was being picked by the US to face the new global politics.  Vajpayee journeyed  to Islamabad in a BUS but his counterpart Gen Musharraf was not impressed and the cunning General inaugurated an era of horrendous killing in India warning Vajpayee that  Pakistan could destabilize India. Vajpayee gave grand welcome to Gen Musharraf in Agra even after knowing that Gen Musharraf was a competitive enemy and not a political rival.

 During his period a large  number of young commissioned army  officers who received their training in National Defence Academy were allowed to be butchered by Pakistani soldiers without any border skirmishes. With Pakistan Vajpayee played a game of love and hate, a legacy of Nehru era but this policy was going to cost the Indian PM who who sought to turn himself from a bumbling office holder into a victorious commander Vajpayees opponents were waiting to pounce. 

Kargil war with Pakistan was  anticipated long ago. A willy General Musharraf knew the image building exercise of Vajpayee. Musharraf was not elected democratically ,he grabbed the power by toppling th government of Elder Sharif brother. Vajpayee was unprepared for this war. While Pakistan did not mind its suffering and humiliation India was not prepared for humiliation. It was a war which cost Vajpayee his post and the party suffered humiliation .The grand old party bounced back. It is still not clear the foreign policy of this Hindi poet who claimed to have  vast experience. While Vajpayee released Kandahar hijackers in exchange of Indian passengers but India had to set free a good number of dreaded terrorists from Pakistan who are still active and operates from Pakistan. V P Singh also released terrorists from Kashmir in exchange of the daughter of the most communal Home Minister.

AND THE FINAL THOUGHT. 

 From Texas I was watching the last rites of Vajpayee. I was surprised to see a former Home Minister who encouraged genocides in J&K and released a dreaded terrorist in exchange of his kidnapped daughter. He was paying the last homage to Vajpayee.  

Once Vajpayee  addressed a group of  eighteen officers, I was one of them. His words still haunts me. He told us "We will remain confident,tough and confident and consistent in our fight to destroy the terrorists completely."  For all the steel in his voice  his words did not inspire confidence. So after witnessing the former Home Minister attending the last rites of Vajpayee, as a lessor mortal I concluded that Vajpayee fought for himself. He condemned N Modi but within years Modi won absolute majority and formed the government.By sacrificing  large number of young army officers Vajpayee failed to get what he wanted, Nobel for peace was preserved for war monger Obama.

Vajpayee did not fight for Ram and Imam so he got neither RAM nor IMAM. 





Sunday, May 25, 2025

WEAPONS IN MODERN WARS.

  By K P PASWAN

 We are witnessing different kinds of-genocides and terror activities. Civilization is filled with such type of conflicts, only the nature of conflicts and  weapons have changed.  Human race  survived with  weapons made of stones and spears  in ancient time and continues to survive with  Submarines and  Nuclear arsenal in modern time. We are becoming  more and more rational in our approach and dont care much about  any supernatural deity, responsible for our existence. Surprisingly we dont know anything about the birth of the universe. And a large number of people whether educated or not have little interest  in the origin of the universe as there is no body to tell any thing about the parents of the universe Yet wonder of modern technology forces us sometimes to know the mystery of the universe. Several scientific theories habe been presented to give the idea that the universe may or may not be the offspring of a supernatural deity.

From time immemorial human beings have developed weapons made of stones and iron for hunting animal for foods. With passage of times these weapons are now characterised as destroyer of human beings and in the last six centuries these weapons played important role in the colonization of different lands in different parts of the world. Colonization was not possible without horrendous killing of the natives and the genocides of the defeated people by better and lethal weapons in the hands of colonizers..

 India was ruled by robbers as they had sophisticated weapons  while the  natives fought with arrows and  spears made up of irons. When Alexander invaded India in 326BC, his army consisted of horse riders with spears in their hands while Indian kings had elephants with bows and arrows  and fought with Alexander's soldiers like wrestlers.

 Deadly weapons were manufactured based on science based technology. These weapons were used in the beginning of the 20th century by the Western countries . There were fierce competitions among the colonial powers to enforce hegemony and more than half of the world was colonized by a few countries of modern Europe. an>

Roles of Science.Science played important roles in the development of modern deadly weapons. In the beginning of the 20th century sophisticated assault guns were introduced, Steps were taken to introduce better communication system. Railways were introduced by Great Britain in its colonies and  Britain was boasting of its rail development but France and Germany were not legging behind. Navy vassals were operated by steam engine but better communication was still a distant dream. Meanwhile Americans were thinking to manufacture aircrafts as the cars were already introduced in the US. WW1 witnessed sophisticated weapons  playing havoc in the affected nations. Surprisingly they US soldiers fought war with assault rifels borrowed from France and UK. Before the start of WW2 fighter jets were introduced and steps were  taken in the US and UK and Germany to manufacture atom bomb. Navy and the war planes played vital role in the WW2.

The US and Weapons.America's traditional hostility to central state power meant that it was a surprisingly  reluctant military powe.r After WW1 the US rapidly disarmed leaving  only its naval power intact The US did not set about translating  its economic potential  into a truly  globe-embracing  full spectrum  military dominance  untill    FDR took the decision to expand  the army, air force and navy simultaneously. In military terms  the US was a junior partner till the WW1 In the bloody battles of  of the St Mihiles and in the Orgonne forest  Americans fought with the British and French weapons not the other way around.

The US changed the nature of weapons  From deadly assault rifles to destructive Nukes the US emerged unchallenged manufacturers of deadly weapons. Heavy tanks, fighter jets and Missiles decides the outcome of a deadly war. After WW2 there was only one Superpower and it was the US followed by USSR but the US  started dictating the politics of the world. In the manufacture of deadly arms a few nations of Western Europe also tried to challenge the hegemony of the US. France and Germany are also manufacturing fighter jets and missiles. German made heavy tanks  are equal in strength with American made heavy tanks named as leopard

At present Ukraine is fighting Russia and Israel is fighting the terrorists who are  being financed by a rich Iran. Modern and sophisticated weapons are being used in Ukraine and in the Gaza patty. Now we are witnessing pilot less Drones and Cyberattacks  causing more harms than tanks and traditional weapons. China is also not legging in producing fighter jets and missiles. Chinese strongman Xijinping has declared that the time was ripe for China to play central role in the world.

 TERRORISTS AND WEAPONS. modern weapons  have given a new lease of life to certain groups of terrorist organisations  like Al Qaeda and ISIS , not to speak of Talibans, Hamas and Hezbullah. The terrorists have in their possession all types of weapons except Nukes and the days may not be far off when the terrorists in Pakistan and N Korea  snatch Nukes from the army. In Pakistan ,Army itself is sponsoring terror attacks in most parts of the world but specially in the middle east. Easy availability of deadly weapons has increased insurgency The sickening rhythm of suicide bombings in Sudan and in different parts of the middle East is quickening again.  In the Middle East Tribal conflicts are based upon suicide bombing.Insurgency in any part of world is not possible without  smuggling of arms by insurgents.

 

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 Modern warfare forces the fighting nations to witness the door to hell.  The movie Star wars inspired to manufacture  weapons  which travels as fast as the sound. Russia has in its possession the Thermo nuclear device known as the Tsar Bomba while the US has the capacity to disturb the gravity of the entire solar system. It was deadly weapon which prolonged war in Vietnam, Afghanistan. And modern weapons have destroyed Ukraine and the Middle East. Fortunately manufacturing arms is linked with a prosper economy and only few countries are economically strong to introduce  and manufacture arms capable enough for Apocalypse. We must bear in mind that two bankrupt and starving nations have Nukes but they cannot fight hell owing to weak economy.



Monday, May 19, 2025

HATED AND RESPECTED POLITICIANS.

 BY K P PASWAN.


At present there are three politicians in power who are hated by a large number of people. While  Vladimir Putin of Russia and Donald Trump. the president elect of the US are hated and respected throughout the world, Narendra Modi, the PM of India is hated by his opponents in India and respected all ovr the world except Pakistan and few Islamic countries.

 Here we are going to discuss about Putin and his political ideology responsible for his increased unpopularity

 Putin emerged as the strong man of Russia after death of Boris Yeltsin , the first political head of non Communist Russia.  It is rightly said that Gorbachew inaugurated an era of democracy in Russia, Boris Yeltsin destroyed it and Putin is trying to revive the past glory of Russia by democratic principles. These so called principles are his own creations.

Putin is being hated and criticised for various reasons and most of these reasons are not based on true facts. Prolonged battle in Ukraine despite of despite of substantial territorial gain has increased his unpopularity. Before the Ukraine war Putin told a western journalist that the US was already a Superpower so there was no need for another Superpower. So Putin accepted that Russia was not a competitive enemy of the US. During the era of Cold war Russia was known as Soviet Union  which consisted a large number of small republics which were annexed by Lenin and founded a fragile USSR. So there were only two superpowers ,the Soviet Union and the USA. With the collapse of Communism Soviet Union disappeared and Russia along with a good number of former republics emerged, these former republics are now independent nations some of them have joined NATO and EU.  During Cold war western Europe feared Soviet Union which  posed serious existential threat to non Communist Europe. Unfortunately even after collapse of Soviet Union the same fear persisted as is evident from the futile attempt to expand NATO which became obsolete in absence of  a powerful Soviet Union.


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But what the case has illuminated is the ultra cynical,hostile  world view that informs Russia's truculence  a view in which there are precious few values or rules. Russia under Putin  is a more chaotic  and frightening place  than the resurgent ,authiritarian but orderly country  that it is often thought to be  It is a frightening with huge power. 

Quite apart from its vast territory and nuclear arsenal  Russia has the world's largest hydrocarbon  reserves--now its chief foreign policy lever--plus a permanent seat on the UNSC. All that makes Russia an coperation vital  to the West efforts  over global problems like climate change,N Korea and most pressingly the future status of Ukraine on which Putin is unlikely to be helpful and restraining Iran'snuclear ambitions,

The knowledge that he can thwart  Western design ,allied to the self confidence  endangered by  Russia economic revival despite of sanctions and his strangulation of domestic oppositions has allowed Putin to indulge  his sense of grievance at  Russians diminished status.

Trump administration has evidently decided that Russian insouciance ever what was in
effect a miniature act of  Nuclear Terrorism on the street of Moscow. was a provocation too far.

 Despite the echoes of Soviet era spat, this stand off  does not, as some excitable commentators are persuaded,herald the onset of a new Cold War. Even if it is in some respect  more worryingly  unpredictable  than the Soviet Union,today's Russia does not have the old  empire's economic or military might, nor its rival ideology . But the Cold war analogy  is instructive in one way. Even as they pretend to destroy  one another the West and Soviet Union  struck deals and  traded in energy in diluted form, the same combination of  opprobrium and  and real politik  is needed  in relations with Russia now. For example despite the instinct in Kremlin  that all diplomacy is zero  it might be possible to encourage the Russians  to help more with Iran  by pointing out  that if Iran had no bomb  programme. Trump might not to press forward with a controversial missile  defence in Eastern Europe.

The idea that  Russia might quickly  become a Normal country,like the hope that  Putin might turnout to be a  democrat has been discredited. But Russia is still a country  the US and the Western Europe must do business  with even as  as its excessess are restricted.

As Putin outmanoeuvres Biden, Trump applauds. With the advent of Trump, the Russian television  which has been pumping out anti American propaganda  quickly seized  on a new narrative With the fall of Democrats  Channel One TV of Russia declared  that Biden found himself in  a puddle while Putin  displayed diplomatic mastery  at the world level. It did not mention the global humiliation faced in Syria where the bigots supported by Turkiye forced All Assad to flee and sought shelter in Russia. Mr Trump's policy added  to the mystery of his   apparent infatuation with Mr Putin and fuelled anxiety  about Russia's ability  to undermine the American democracy. Yet for pro  Western Russian liberals  the pamicked attitude of some  of America's mainstream media  was equally discomfiting. It seemed a mirror image of  Russia's own hysteria about  the role of America  in sowing chaos and staging colour  revolution in Russia's back yard.

 CONCLUSION. Russia is on the threshold of economic revival but it is no longer a dreaded military power and cannot  be an existential threat to the West. There is no question of nuclear escalation by Putin.  Russia is needed to maintain stability in the post coldwar politics of the world. Its actions in Ukraine are condemnable but Russia cannot be discarded.




Tuesday, May 13, 2025

FIGHTING HELL.

 By K P PASWAN


  1. Recently India and Pakistan were engaged in fierce  war for a few days. Pakistan is a self proclaimed theocratic state with few feriends and with a large number of cointries excelling the crippling economy of Pakistan.
  2. Before proceeding further it may be remembered that from Nehru to Modi, Pakistan has never won a war against India and the credit must be given to the Preachers nasquarading as soldiers in Pakistan are preaching religious laws. In the same language it is said that from Nehru to Modi India has never won a war against terrorists funded by Pakistan and the credit goes to traitors scattered all over India. In other words we may say that Pakistan has never won a war against India and has always won election in Pakistan and may win war of terror with India..
  3. Cross border terrorism is not a new thing for India. Division of India on the basis of religion has been a boon for Pakistan and a curse for India. Fortunatly entire world is fighting religious based terrorism and no country not even the mighty US is immune from attack of terrorists. Most interesting part is that every big terror attacs is being attributed to intelligence failure which is wrong and not based on facts. Massacre of sports persons from Israel in the notorious Munich Olympic was not due to intelligence failure but it was premature conclusion of some big poweres that a terrorist like Yasser Arafat would not resort to horrendous killing. Chain smoking PM of Israel Golda Mair neutralised every terrorist who participated in the carnage and the CIA and M16failed to read the mind of the great PM of Israel.

  1. With the terror attacks upon the twine towers actions based on modern technology and now on the basis of AI are being taken to thwart  evil designs of terrorists. However it is always not possible to foresee the terrorist,s designs, as seen this is  in the middle east UK and in certain parts of India. UK followed by India is producing dreaded terrorists who are found active in various countries.. Before the advent of PLA led by Yassir Arafat there was no basis for religion based terrorism. It is said that the HAMAS's actions on the 6th October 2023 was not anticipated by MOSSAD. It is not only funny and interesting but lacks credibility. Israel is fighting its enemies from the date of its birth and the Hamas's actions must not be seen as an isolated case. Now HAMAS and the Hizbollahs have been weakened and Iran which is used to fund the terrorists is facing global humiliation as every top terrorists belonging to HAMAS, HIZBOLLAH have been neutralised and now there is acute crisis of leadership in the terrorist organisations in the West Asia.
  2.  The situation is different in India. From ancienttime , India as we know has been the meeting place of people of moden Somalia to modern Ukraine. Destiny of India has always been shaped by traitors and antinationals. Hinduism the religion of majority in India failed to spread all over the world as there was no central authority. Kings were engaged in destroying each other and the Hinduism failed to unite its followers. It is therefore surprising that Hinduism is still alive and its philosophy is attracting learned persons from all over the world. My own mentor in the US is a White American Nobel Laureatue in Physics. Himself a devout Christian he has outstanding knowledge of Hindu scripture and thinks holy verses of Rigveda as the flow of time, Another French Physicist Carlo Roveli ,a Catholic declares the cosmic dance of Shiva as the flow of time
  3. Coming back to communal tension in India, a few Youtubers assert that India was not divided on religin considerations. These selfproclaimed intellectuals  accuse the majority community responsible for social and communal tension
  4.  It appears that we are yet to learn from France,Germany and the UK which have become like Arabian countries. American VP J D Vance thinks the UK as an Islamic counttry with Nukes. President  Trump does not give even slight mportance to UK. In India a particular state is acting like a country of the middle east while   CM of another state is  notorious for entertaining illegal immigrants to keep herself in power.
  5. NEW GLOBAL ORDER. Post cold war era there is no logic in following the old principles of  unipolar or multipolar world. There are now several power centres affecting the image of the US as a superpower. Two nations with crippled economy like N Korea and Pakistan have Nukes but not recognised either by the US o Russia as centre of power. Pakistan a theocratic state is virtually bankrupt and surviving on the charity of the IMF and China, a simple arithmatical calculation proves that Pakistan shall never be able to repay its external debt till the end of civilization. Being a theocratic state it thinks it is cardinal duty to fund and incite terror attacks in India. Recent small scale of war between two countries makes it amply clear that Pakistan can never win a battle with India, so with help from Indian intellectuals  and traitors it is possible to  keep India in check by inciting terror activities.
  6. And Pakistan is doing the same thing.

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Thursday, October 10, 2024

A SPINELESS U.N.O AND THE WORLD.

 

 BY K P Paswan


 Donald Trump the former president who is again in the race for the WH once described the UNO as obsolete and a picnic spot.   After the end of WW2 there is no peace in the world and fruitless wars like Vietnam, Kuwait, Iraq and Afghanistan were fought and at present bloody wars are going on full speed in Ukraine and in the Palestine. After the collapse of USSR, cold war also disappeared and the world entered into an era of bloody conflicts. Before there was no globalization of terror but now  terror outfits are here there and every where and what is surprising they are mutating at an alarming speed. We may divide the operations and functions of the UNO in three parts.

From 1950 to 1965 was an era of different type of conflicts. Korea and Germany were divided and  and Japan was bounded by a defense treaty with the US. Colonial powers were declining and newly independent states were clamoring for more foods and freedom. The world was divided into two camps. The Communists were working under the rule of politicians like Stalin of USSR followed by Khrushchev and China was under Mao. There were small countries like Albania, and Cuba with impossible dreams, there were a few more Communists like Romania and undivided Yugoslavia. Opposed to communism were countries like the US, UK and the European countries like France, Italy and a few others.  Former colonial powers were losing their economic stability and the newly freed nations were impressed by the false propaganda of communist countries.  India under Pt Jawaharlal Nehru remained the chief spoke person of those countries known as the non-aligned countries supporting neither USSR nor  the US

The UNO was working in the interest of the world but its functions suffered owing to creation of Security with five permanent members having power to any proposal not liked by either the US and USSR. In a way the UNO received jolt when several security organisations like NATO, CEATO, CENT, the Warsaw Pact and a few other security organisations were founded.  The UNO was becoming helpless as these defense organisations protected its members from being grabbed by Communists. The USSR reached agreement with communist countries and the birth of Warsaw pact was witnessed. Formation of these defense treaties greatly undermined the authority of the UN O. What is the worse that major part of the cost for the maintains of the UN was borne out by the US which emerged as the richest country in the world. There are several organs of the UN like WHO, International Court and other important organisations depended upon the US for survival. CUBA CRISIS. In 1962 Khrushchev was the strong man of the USSR. He was an experienced hand who worked with Stalin but was not violent. His over ambition resulted in the infamous Cuba crisis. At the request of Fidel Castro, the president of Cuba the USSR deployed nukes and other dreaded missiles in Cuba and the Soviet Union was in a position to encircle the USA and virtually threatened its sovereignty. In the month of Dec1961 the USSR successfully tested thermos nuclear bomb known as the Tsar Bomba with capacity to lampoon savagely the US. Kennedy was the president of the US and it appeared for a while that show down between two superpowers was inevitable.

 If we look  back over the Cuban crisis  we know  we escaped  devastation , but at the time of the Cuban crisis  we were really on a hair  trigger, and only through the responsibility  and good sense of Kennedy and  Khrushchev  and their advisors that  we avoided catastrophe. The nuclear power of the two military giants Russia and the US have the explosive equivalent of   one of the US Air force ,s daisy cutter bombs for each inhabitants  of the US and Europe Utter devastation would have  resulted had this all gone off. UNO T remained a mute spectator and failed to express the opinion of the world.

The threat continued till the end of the Cold war. But looking a century ahead we cannot expect  the present political assignment  to stay constant  In the last century Soviet Union appeared and disappeared  and there were many regional wars. Finally Soviet Union disappeared in 1990 and Russia emerged. F we survive the climate change than within one hundred years, since nuclear weapons cannot be dis invested Even we don’t consider the nuclear threat alone than there is severe  chance , perhaps 50% chance , of some catastrophic setback to civilization by deadly conventional weapons. , there is quite expectation that  that there will be another stand off  as fearsome as the cold war era , perhaps involving  more participants  than just two  and therefore more unstable.

The UNO in its present form is a white elephant. At present there are more than 53 Islamic nations, some of them oil rich while majority of them suffer from poverty and lack of modern education. These people are being guided by their religious scriptures and cannot tolerate open democracy. But surprisingly they are swarming to western countries and are disturbing social and political system of the hosting countries, Emergence of right-wing politics may be attributed to such migrants. We fear Crusade type of genocide as the radicals among Muslims are bent upon creating their influence in western countries. UNO instead of setting guidelines for them is openly siding With them even if these radicals indulge in terror activities. The terms like genocide, slaughter and horrendous killings have no meaning in a society which is bent upon surviving against all odds. Recently the Secretary General of the UNO has been sanctioned because of siding with Iran a country known as the chief source of finance for major terror outfits in the middle east. It is the first instance and is not going to end unless reforms are initiated to make UNO more

Sunday, October 6, 2024

INDIA,CHINA AND THE US.

 

By K P Paswan.


It is not only difficult and impossible to predict the outcome of the American presidential election. But whoever wins he or she will have plenty of works to do. But most important will be relations between the US and China Xi Jinping has heralded a new era in global politics. New POTUS will try to project the American strength while calling for close cooperation on

If Trump occupies the Oval Office than he will realize that the Chinese authoritarian capitalist model is not supposed to survive in a global free market and China is not only distrusted but hated for its Gift Trade Trap. But he has to acknowledge that China is the single most powerful economic actor in the global economy and the US was responsible for the rise of China by sacrificing Japan. But he will have solace that in a new global order China cannot thrive Sooner or later China may be  need  fundamental political reforms , in absence of which China cannot  sustain its state capitalist system. While the US economy remains the world’s largest, China’s ability to  to use state owned companies to boost the party’s domestic and foreign  influences ensures that the emerging giant  is on track to surpass US within ten years The US is hardly irrelevant. The dollars remain the global reserve currency , a privilege  that will likely  last for decades to come. Wealthy Chinese are purchasing lands in the US and their presence in California on large scale  is being disliked by majority of Americans as the Chinese are the largest group of illegal migrants. For the American Russia and the US are competitive rivals and Russia must not allow to cross the limit of a Regional power. But Russia has never claimed as a Superpower and after the end of Cold War Russian economy is in shamble. It is fighting an expensive war in Ukraine and due to rich in oil and natural gas its economy has not collapse and on the contrary it has withstood the American sanctions and has hypnotized the entire world

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More space for India is needed. There is apocryphal story  that the present Indian PM visited a country which is also a member of EU. He visited  a site where the workers were building a canal, He asked his host why the workers  using shovels and wheelbarrows rather than modern equipment, he was told that the project's purpose was to generate jobs. Time has changed but the reality remains  that  it is far easier for Modi  to command Indian officials  to create and protect jobs New Delhi offers  direct financial and political support for its strategic industries. Xiaoping protects  Chinese companies charged with  stealing the intellectual property of  foreign firms. No such protection is granted in India
At the same time leaders of other  emerging power  with a strong democracy like India  is following China’s lead in  building system  where government embraces  commerce while tightening control over  domestic policies 

 Slow and steady growth of economy in India  must not be overlooked. By toppling the Modi government  the US and its allies assume that the long arc of  human development bends  towards liberal democracy but what if they are wrong in the context of India.
The level of protection is important in an age  when the most important  variable globally  will be the pace and  and scale of technological change. Technological upheaval is poised  to displace  hundred of thousands of workers  in the developing world  including many  who only recently  risen from poverty, India may be cited as an example. Modi's government finer control  of its economy  will help absorb  some of the shock  that will have bigger effects elsewhere.
 A few American economists have termed the Indian economy as joke as they are inspired by a former governor bank governor of India who made mess of Indian banking system. an Indian American is the president of the World Bank and he does not indulge in gibberish talk of Indian economy  India is overpopulated and highly polarized. 

India and the US are neither rivals nor competitive enemies. US is witnessing many developed countries with awe and wonder. Economy has become multi polar and China which was actually made by the US is posing serious threat to US hegemony. Fortunately China is not a Superpower and is not in a position to disturb the balance of power.In order to maintain its status as the only Superpower the US cannot tolerate stable government based upon democratic principles. Entire Latin America is at the mercy of the US. With the collapse of USSR, Africa is confused. China cannot be trusted and former colonial power UK has become economically sick. Africans are migrating to European countries for better future but irony is that these immigrants are not welcomed in the European countries as majority of immigrants follow a religion alien to European countries. India may play balancing act in several fields. Illegal immigrants from neighboring Bangladesh is presenting alarming political and economic situations but there is no fear of large scale immigrants from Africa and Latin America. India is exporting hard wares, medicines and foodstuffs to different countries of Africa and there is no dissent against India. India has friendly relations with oil rich Islamic countries and the only and chronic problem for India is Pakistan a bankrupt and self proclaimed theological country with Nukes under its possession. Pakistan is unlikely to get away from heavy external debt till dooms day. Rich Islamic states are fed up  with extending financial help to Pakistan. The US may use Pakistan to foment trouble in India and in Iran. At the same time the US wants a credible  friend if not an ally and India is proving a friend of that nature. In the past Russia rescued India from many humiliations but changing dynamics of diplomacy demands closer tie between India and US and that is happening.
 In the Ukraine crisis India remains neutral despite of the facts that Ukraine supplied deadly arms to Pakistan to kill Indians. American sanctions have failed to cripple the Russian economy as almost every member of EU is indirectly helping Russia to violate sanctions. Russia is a winning position in Ukraine even though it suffered several setbacks. But the end of Ukraine crisis depends upon dialogue between Putin and Zelensky and India has taken initiative to  bring Russia and Ukraine on the negotiating table. With change in guard in the WH we may expect an end of Ukraine crisis.
 
The world may have replaced uni polar world and a few political scientists are fond of calling the world Multi polar. But it needs elaboration. As the US remains the only superpower 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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