GOLDEN TRIANGLE IN INDIA.

By K P Paswan.

 Here is a small state in the North West region of India which has been virtually abandoned by the PM Narendra Modi. It is a state being governed by bribery and nepotism, practices failing to deliver basic human services, Religion wise. there are two group of people Hinduism and Christianity. Meitei who subscribe Hinduism.  Manipur politics produced a gall that rose like the stench   of the garbage that has accumulated on the capital IMPHAL street because officials cannot figure out where to put it. Indian constitution which guarantees government position all religions was intended to balance the interests and needs of a diverse cosmopolitan nation. But in reality, it provides semi-permanent employment for self-dealing elites in political parties that look after themselves, rather than greater good.  The misrule had sent the state ‘s economy into free fall, and half the residents in Imphal lived in poverty. After Meitei, Kukis are the largest minority group. Mizoram is a Kuki dominated state and except Mizoram Kukis are not welcomed in Nagaland and Meghalya. Kukis in Manipur are illegal migrants of Myanmar, driven away by the aggressive Buddhists.  Mrs. Ang Sui the Nobel in peace was educated in a prestigious college of New Delhi and speaks flawless Hindi. The million-dollar question, why the military rulers of Myanmar are also dead against the Kukis. It is so because they are highly expert in poppy cultivation. It was the first PM of India who tried to become an Iconoclast but became a source for all the evils of the North West. Kukis enjoy the status of Scheduled Tribes and occupy most of the cultivatable land. Top political figures who enjoyed the patronage of Congress  have switched over to the ruling party at the center

HELPLESS BUREAUCRACY.  Officers of Indian Administrative service are posted in these states. A true and interesting incident is narrated. A few I.A.S officers were victims of extortions in these Kukis dominated areas. Three of them resigned and once again appeared in the civil services. One of them became an IPS and is posted in Hindi belt while two others joined private firms. As recently as in 2022 one of the IAS officers shouted at the top of his voice in the capital of a state at “I must have murdered several Dalits in my previous life, that’s why I got this bloody cadre’’.  Who is responsible for this lamentable state of affairs? Unless drastic measures are taken by the central authority nothing can be done. Indira Gandhi bombed a particular state she should have bomb the place to the stone age. Nothing has changed and nothing is going to change,

 Since the Meitei Hindus  are at the receiving end, they also demanded the status of ST and that was guaranteed by the judiciary and this infuriated the illegal migrants who were helped by Mizoram. Mizoram is a small state but launched a war against India for a separate sovereign state and the boldest PM of India Indira Gandhi bombed Mizoram. In my view it should have been bombed to stone age. Later on, Mizos realized the consequences of demanding a sovereign state and unwillingly accepted the Indian constitution but Mizos are being guided by foreign missionaries and non Mizos are looked down as strangers. Kukis were driven by the govt of Myanmar. While they infiltrated into Manipur, several facilities like the status of St to the Kukis were already available.

 Now enter the Golden Triangle a term used most probably by the British it is a group of countries comprising Myanmar and Thailand and which are infamous for poppy cultivation. The famous Opium war in China must be seen in the context of flourishing of Opium trade in Myanmar. But with introductions of the concept of a welfare state along with democratic principles, the Golden Triangle lost its value but the failure of industrialization of Myanmar. Thailand and surrounding countries resulted in unemployment on a large scale. In Thailand tourism assumed the status of an industry but in Myanmar rice, oil and natural gas continued to be the source of income Myanmar is rich in oil and natural gas but the industries are being controlled by foreigners especially the Americans for whom all methods are necessary if you make profit in a big way

There are certain countries in Latin America and Asia infamous for harvesting narcotics. Political structures of entire Latin America centered around certain Drug Cartel notorious for drug trafficking and gang wars. Some of the narcotics are less potent and less profitable but narcotics grown in Afghanistan and Myanmar is highly profitable and much in demand. Some of the influential politicians are involved in harvesting Cocaine.

 Mexico, the neighbor of US is famous for Drug Cartels and former president of Mexico is accused of receiving bribes from drug lords. There is notorious Golden Crescent comprising Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran. Drug addicts and drug trafficking are common in these coiuntries and attempts to end this triangle has ended in failure. It is so because that drug lords enjoy political patronage, in Afghanistan, drug lords decide the political structures of the country. Narcotics grown in Afghanistan are exported illegally throughout the world.

PM of India Mr Modi is maintaining studied silence over Manipur, he has no option but to remain silent. If Modi is replaced by another politician, there will be nothing for him but follow the policy of Modi. The kukis in Manipur are not welcomed except in Mizoram which still dream a separate and sovereign state, Foreign missionaries are very active and with active help from certain political leaders, the Mizos are keeping their agitation alive. If the Meitei are recognized as Scheduled Tribe than it will be blow to the illegal migrants from neighboring countries. Meitei will have equal rights and the poppy cultivation will not be monopolized by the kukis. Some of the influential Meitei are also engaged in cultivation of poppy and they will not share the booty with others. Solutions at this stage is not possible.  India has porous border with Myanmar’s Ang Sui, the popular leader of Myanmar wanted to become a deity of the Buddhist country, instead she is not welcomed by her own people.   Myanmar is  a country where drug trafficking was never dealt with iron hand. The Kukis are in a better position to revive the poppy harvesting in Manipur as per their wish. Both the grand old party and the political party at the Centre are in some way or other are linked with the Kukis. Unless Indian soldiers penetrate deep into Myanmar and destroy the strongholds of Kukis, Revival of golden triangle remain a  possibility. PM Modi cannot do any thing neither the opposition parties who are more opportunists than patriots

FINAL THOUGHT. Bilateral and if necessary trilateral talks consisting of India, China and Myanmar is required to address the situation. China is also supplying weapons to anti nationals to foment troubles in the North East. Oppositions are shedding crocodiles’ tears for certain imaginary atrocities committed by Meities and Kukis against each other. Rapes and killing of rivals are common all over the world if the war is for drug cultivation.  After successful revival of Golden Crescent in Afghanistan, the arrival of Golden Triangle may be slowed but cannot be totally stopped,

SANCTIONS, PAST AND PRESENT

 

By K P Paswan.

 We hear a lot about political, economic and even social sanctions, being used as lethal weapons against certain nations ruled by belligerents’ autocrats or even democratically elected government. This is the age of globalization; no country is completely self-sufficient. A few countries produce oil and natural gas which is essential for the entire world. US still imports fertilizers from Russia despite of sanctions. A small Qatar is being ruled by an autocrat who thinks himself above the mightiest political figure of this plant and the reason is that Qatar has lot of oil and natural gas. A few countries are known for manufacturing drugs necessary for survival for the human race. These drugs are being sold to all the countries. Previously international trade was being regularized by UNCTADE which has been replaced by the famous or infamous WTO. It is difficult to regularize international trade as the money launderers and smugglers have devised way and means to avoid these regulations.

There is no centralized to monitor genuine sanctions. Both N Korea and Myanmar are under house arrest owing to sanctions, while Myanmar is crying loudly, N korea is being supported covertly by China, Russia and Iran. India was sanctioned when the late PM Indira Gandhi conducted nuclear test but sanctions imposed upon India was symbolic. India is not an aggressive state but determined to protect its sovereignty from a greedy rogue neighbor and an overambitious China. With an open democracy Indian economy is witnessing sustained growth despite of sanctions and many ups and down.

  It is difficult say when and who initiated Sanctions but from certain historical facts it appears Sanctions were imposed by certain countries upon their opponents.

 Let us consider the fate of  Athens, the capital of modern Greek 2400 years ago. It decreed trade embargo on neighboring Megara, but the ensuing 27 years struggle left Athenians humiliated and Megara’s ally Corinth, triumphant, this is found in the history of Greek, that may be the first instance of sanctions failing, but there are plenty of more recent cases In the 20^th Century, they were used ever more often, especially by American Presidents.  Japan was sanctioned by Franklin Roosevelt in 1940, Eisenhower smacked them on Great Britain to end the Suez venture. Jimmy Carter punished the Soviet Union in 1980 with a wheat embargo and an Olympic boycott. Ronald Regan imposed them in protest at Martial law in Poland

 Congress in US too came to see sanctions as an easy cheap way of expression. In 1996 for example Belize, Colombia, Italy Mexico, Panama and Venezuela were all under American embargo beastliness to Whales or Dolphins’. In the next five years US imposed 85 new sanctions on foreign states

Sanctions may feel better than nothing, they are less feeble than scolding an Ambassador than sending in the marines. They provide a fission of moral satisfaction. And some times they work --- ending Britain’s Suez foray, for example.

Spotting the failure is easier, The League of Nation’s sanctions did not protect Abyssinia against Italy. The UN did not do better with Saddam Hussein Harsh regimes are still working in Iraq under American embargo. Never mind Myanmar and Sudan and never mind Cuba sanctioned in 1962. Regime change may not necessarily end of sanctions but behavior change may suffice the morality of punishing poor people who live in a boycotted autocracy is dubious. It makes the regime more popular or powerful. Saddam Hussain ensured that sanctions hurt chiefly the innocents. Security provides an excuse for rationing, permits and licenses creating corruptions, favoritism   and a black market which the regime can control. Floridian’s complaints were added to the more familiar ones of American farmers and business man. Whose markets shrink with every wheat embargo or investment boycott. Sanctions in US alone cost near nearly 15 billion dollars and they affected 200000 workers. No wonder that sanctions especially unilaterally imposed ones like America’s ban on trade with Cuba, cause frictions among the allies.

 Sanctions may have other results too. Armed embargo turned South Africa into a huge maker, then exporter of guns and encouraged Pakistan to go nuclear. In Haiti the misery the caused in 1990 washed thousands of refugees up on America’s coast. Sanctions are not necessarily futile They may have some value simply in expressing condemnation. But they work best when clearly defined and with an achievable end. If that is not achieved, as in 1990 when the UNO ordered Iraq, in vain to withdraw from Kuwait than it can at least be argued that using force is justified. It helps too, if a mechanism for ending sanctions is made clear at the outset.; they are easier to impose than to lift, and the sanctioned regime is   unlikely to make even small concessions if these are not greeted with some easing of the boycott. Moreover, after years of ritual blacklisting fatigues set among the boycotters. If they are to work, sanctions must be imposed by as many countries as possible.

The fashion is now for SMART sanctions which try to isolate and hurt the regime and its cronies, not the innocents But the people sanctioned must mind. One other problem arises from the new urge  to isolate odious leaders. Such people already tend to be remote from reality. They are surrounded by yes men  and often ignorant of   other countries Increasing their isolation may be dangerous, It is not farfetched  to argue that  the nastiest  wars of the 29^th century could have been averted  had the aggressor known what would be followed If the part of the blame for two WW, Korean, Falkland and the Gulf wars, lay with the failures of others  to convey the  appropriate message , part also lay with  the isolation and ignorance  on which the aggressors  based their misjudgments.  Arguably offending nations should be brought to closer reality, not driven deeper into   the realm of ghastly fantasy. History holds lesion for the sanctioners as well as the sanctioned.

 FINAL THOUGHT. At present Iran is fearing worst kind of sanctions. Iran’s economy is based upon oil and natural with less manufacturing activities in other fields Iran may face sanctions as this oil rich country is bent upon acquiring Nukes at all cost. It does not fear existential threat but the overambitions of a few religious leaders may put entire Iran under house arrest. Worst fear is that US and its allies may consider a variety of alternative options from cyber-attacks disabling Iranian infrastructures to massive sanctions on third parties doing business with Iran.

COALITION POLITICS AND INDIAN ECONOMY.

 By K P PASWAN.

 

India is the largest democracy of the world. The country is following the parliamentary system of democracy. President is ceremonial head of state and also the Commander in Chief of Indian army.Prime Minister belongs to the political party which commands majority in the lower house known as LokSabha. From 2014 on-wards there is only one political party, the ruling party (BJP)  commands majority in the lower house but for certain bills which are to be also passed by the upper chamber known as Rajyasabha. The ruling party does not enjoy majority in the upper chamber and has to depend upon others like minded parties for support.

After assassination of Indira Gandhi. India witnessed the emergence of coalition government. Political leaders of these small and regional parties were disgruntled politicians, they knew nothing about emerging economy. All the public sectors were falling sick and these coalition government made situation worse by funding these sick units, the result was Reserve Bank had to print more money and inflation crossed double figures. Credit goes to bureaucracy and the strong management of banking sectors that the country was saved from economic doom. Before 1999 there was talk of globalization of economy but common man was not concerned about opening of economy, they cared for their livelihood. In absence of large private sectors there was growing problems of unemployment among qualified technocrats. Growing population  was already causing concern and lack of basic health related infrastructures, led to malnutrition and starvation death.

With opening of Indian economy situation began to change, new groups of leaders were aware of extraordinary progress made by Japan, China and a few countries of Latin America. But MNCs were cautious enough to invest money unless they were convinced of political stability. Coalition Govt had no alternatives but to accept the new reality. 

Having said so we examine the economics  of the country. Unfortunately, in the past when coalition government was formed, Indian economy declined. During the period of a particular PM who was nominated by different coalitions parties India had to mogadge its reserved to  end the chaos in economy.One particular PM who is a leading economist and former Governor Of Reserve Bank Of India, mismanaged Indian economy as he had to sacrifice certain  economic principles as these were not liked by leftist partners. Coalition politics led to widespread scams, certain banks were used to launder money by vested interests and owing to conflicting opinions no penal actions were initiated at an early stage. The money launderers and Scoutmasters fled to foreign countries. India is fighting for their extradition.  

Despite of such hurdles under his guidance further economic reforms like de investment of sick manufacturing units were initiated. Under him Banking sectors witnessed extraordinary reforms but taking advantage of reforms in Banking sectors certain groups indulged indulged in banking frauds from which the country is yet to be recovered.

 India is a land of poor, agriculture is the mainstay of life and harvest depends upon good or bad Monsoon. Even when there was coalition government modern technology was imported to boost agriculture products. The result is that India has achieved self sufficiency in food grains.However after 2000 the world  witnessed growing disparity of economic growth between West and the rest of the world. There was coalition government at the centre and India fought with Pakistan known as Kargil war. But Indian economy was opened and foreign investment was seen in sectors like IT, Textiles Fertilizers and automobiles It was not coalition politics but economic compulsion that every constituent party supported economic reform

Economic growth under coalition politics increased purchasing power of common man and inflation was not allowed to cross double digits.  Introduction of MNREGA resulted in increased rural employment.The period also witnessed migration of unskilled labors from less developed areas to more advanced states. After 2015 there is a strong one party government at the centre but several states are under coalition or being ruled by a different government.  Maharashtra, Karnataka, two Telugu speaking states Tamilnadu Kerala are being ruled by different parties while  Hindi speaking states Chatisgarh Jharkhand and Rajsthan are being ruled by Congress with other political parties. But there is no apathy for economic reforms. States are fighting with centers on the basis of social justice, caste based discrimination.

Economic growth in the coalition also witnessed the modernization of Indian defense system New Jet fighters were purchased. An ultramodern aircraft career was purchased from Russia. 

KOVID and ECONOMY. For India it was a race against time before the outbreak of Kovid 19 Indian economy along with economy of a few nations like Japan. Brazil and Argentina were emerging as strong as Chinese economy. Indian economy started taking regular shape in coalition government and reached its zenith under the period of NarendraModi, who enjoys absolute majority in parliament. But pandemic has crippled the economy of entire world.

FINAL THOUGHT. Overall economic growth was  slowed down but did not face the economic doom in the era of coalition politics.

POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT IN PROMOTING OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP.

 BY K P PASWAN

 In contemporary world young entrepreneurs mean highly qualified professionals educated in reputed financial and technological institutes with sufficient resources to start new big or small manufacturing activities.. Most of them are picked up by reputed MNCs which have branches in different countries. But these MNCs don’t go to countries plagued by internal conflicts and political instability. Even after disappearance of colonial powers, most of the countries once ruled by foreign powers suffer from abject poverty, malnutrition and lack of basic health related facilities. In most of the developing countries political environment is badly polluted by corruption and above all sectarian conflicts. Than there is vulgar display of certain fundamental rights like right to protests against the policies of the government even if it means violence and street fighting.

 An impartial survey of certain countries shows that favourable  political environment of a country attracts MNCs and other entrepreneurs. This is happening in Latin America. Several countries like Panama, Colombia and a few others were known for brutal governments running on drug money, but several corporate houses were given attractive tax incentives. The result is that not only American corporate houses but even the European entrepreneurs are flocking to Latin America and these countries are no longer suffering from poverty and starvation.

 But the poor are not the real beneficiaries of these countries, they are victims of corrupt political system. The governments provide cheap labors to these corporate houses and profits are divided between politicians in power and the MNCs.Liberal tax regime and corruption are favourable platforms for some entrepreneurs to expand their activities. Astronomical rise of China as economic superpower cannot be attributed to open democracy but a congenial political system in which there is no place for free speech. There is political stability in China but that stability is due to one party’s rule. Neither president nor prime minister is democratically elected on the basis of universal franchise China is filled with new and old corporate houses. This country used to be a Communist country and still claims itself as communist regime. Realty is somewhat different. Tax incentives, cheap laborers and above all possession of private property and disciplined banking system are not the fundamentals of communist ideology but these ideologies are being espoused by the current regime in China.

 Learning lessons from the collapse of communism, China with the help of western powers molded its political system, not hostile to capitalism. The result is that along with flourishing of modern entrepreneurship Chinese people are no longer poor as there is no report of starvation and malnutrition, these are the claims of the present regime and we do not know the reality. Economic prosperity of China has created intense zealously all over the world as similar political environment prevailed in many countries but they are unable to attract foreign investment. Only plausible explanation is that entrepreneurs and large MNCs were tempted by economic incentives which were not available in other countries

 In most of the African countries it is not the political and social environment but amount of bribery offered by foreign investors to the politicians in power who create political conditions in favor of entrepreneurs. Several heads of states in Africa are facing corruption charges. Former president of South Africa is facing jail sentence for favouring Indian entrepreneurs. In the middle east neither political nor social conditions are favourable for new industries, but the foreign entrepreneurs skilled in oil explorations are investing heavily in creating infrastructures for oil generation.These entrepreneurs are paying bribes as protection money to  influential autocrats in power. However autocrats rulers are also spending heavily to raise the standard of living of  common people.

 Political environment in promoting  industrial activities is certainly contributing factor for removal of poverty in other parts of the world. Expansion of manufacturing activities means employment opportunities for skilled and unskilled workers.  MNCs from developed countries are moving to less developed countries to save taxes and also expanding their business, German MNCs in China are doing far better than other entrepreneurs belonging to US and other countries of Europe.

Political instability has become relative in modern world. Social environment  in erstwhile Soviet Union and Africa have different explanations. These small former communist countries in Eastern Europe are rich in natural resources but common people suffer from starvation. Political situation in Ukraine and other former communist countries  is not congenial  to attract foreign investors. Polish people are immigrating to US and the situation is worse in some African countries. Refugees from some African countries are desperately going to developed nations of EU as the political environment is neither favourable to people nor to entrepreneurs of countries from which these poor people originate.

Political environment of a country in modern world is greatly influenced by other factors. Coronavirus was first reported in China and within short period the pandemic clouded the entire world. It was feared that a large number of MNCs would move out of China to other underdeveloped countries like India, but it did not happen. Certain manufacturing units shifted their activities to Vietnam and not to India.

 Political environment in India under an honest PM is friendly and foreign investment has shown marked improvement. But the Coronavirus greatly savaged the emerging economy of India it is so because that big foreign powers were not discouraged by Chinese government to move out of China. XiJinping the strongman of China establishes ambitious goal. The political environment in China is to get conspicuously better the widening gap between China and developed countries.  There have number of growing of popular protests over matters such as corruption and giving fertile lands to foreign entrepreneurs. But Xi jinping is not about to change course of actions. He focused on maintaining social stability.

India’s trade relations with China is a glaring example of favorable political and social environment. Export to China from India is to the extent of 1.9 billion dollar while import from China is about 3 billion dollars. India is contributing to the growth of China due to this trade deficit.

In the case of Afghanistan,  and a few other poor countries, proper political and social environment for attracting investors cannot be created. Afghanistan has left its industrial progress at the mercy of an unproven Almighty while Haiti is suffering from natural calamities. Several small countries are paradise for tax evaders. They are creating environment favorable to money launderers. Surprisingly some of the top corporate houses of US and EU are extending logistic and financial incentives to these small countries

FINAL THOUGHT. These days, foreign entrepreneurs are virtually forcing political heads of different countries to create favorable political conditions in their interest. This tendency cannot be stopped as even the dictators want to boost anti-poverty planning even if it means earning money by indulging in corrupt practices. It will not be an exaggeration to say that entrepreneurs are encouraging such politicians and creating  favorable political conditions in their favor.