A SPINELESS U.N.O AND THE WORLD.

 

 BY K P Paswan

 Donald Trump the former president who is again in the race for the WH once described the UNO as obsolete and a picnic spot.   After the end of WW2 there is no peace in the world and fruitless wars like Vietnam, Kuwait, Iraq and Afghanistan were fought and at present bloody wars are going on full speed in Ukraine and in the Palestine. After the collapse of USSR, cold war also disappeared and the world entered into an era of bloody conflicts. Before there was no globalization of terror but now  terror outfits are here there and every where and what is surprising they are mutating at an alarming speed. We may divide the operations and functions of the UNO in three parts.

From 1950 to 1965 was an era of different type of conflicts. Korea and Germany were divided and  and Japan was bounded by a defense treaty with the US. Colonial powers were declining and newly independent states were clamoring for more foods and freedom. The world was divided into two camps. The Communists were working under the rule of politicians like Stalin of USSR followed by Khrushchev and China was under Mao. There were small countries like Albania, and Cuba with impossible dreams, there were a few more Communists like Romania and undivided Yugoslavia. Opposed to communism were countries like the US, UK and the European countries like France, Italy and a few others.  Former colonial powers were losing their economic stability and the newly freed nations were impressed by the false propaganda of communist countries.  India under Pt Jawaharlal Nehru remained the chief spoke person of those countries known as the non-aligned countries supporting neither USSR nor  the US

The UNO was working in the interest of the world but its functions suffered owing to creation of Security with five permanent members having power to any proposal not liked by either the US and USSR. In a way the UNO received jolt when several security organisations like NATO, CEATO, CENT, the Warsaw Pact and a few other security organisations were founded.  The UNO was becoming helpless as these defense organisations protected its members from being grabbed by Communists. The USSR reached agreement with communist countries and the birth of Warsaw pact was witnessed. Formation of these defense treaties greatly undermined the authority of the UN O. What is the worse that major part of the cost for the maintains of the UN was borne out by the US which emerged as the richest country in the world. There are several organs of the UN like WHO, International Court and other important organisations depended upon the US for survival. CUBA CRISIS. In 1962 Khrushchev was the strong man of the USSR. He was an experienced hand who worked with Stalin but was not violent. His over ambition resulted in the infamous Cuba crisis. At the request of Fidel Castro, the president of Cuba the USSR deployed nukes and other dreaded missiles in Cuba and the Soviet Union was in a position to encircle the USA and virtually threatened its sovereignty. In the month of Dec1961 the USSR successfully tested thermos nuclear bomb known as the Tsar Bomba with capacity to lampoon savagely the US. Kennedy was the president of the US and it appeared for a while that show down between two superpowers was inevitable.

 If we look  back over the Cuban crisis  we know  we escaped  devastation , but at the time of the Cuban crisis  we were really on a hair  trigger, and only through the responsibility  and good sense of Kennedy and  Khrushchev  and their advisors that  we avoided catastrophe. The nuclear power of the two military giants Russia and the US have the explosive equivalent of   one of the US Air force ,s daisy cutter bombs for each inhabitants  of the US and Europe Utter devastation would have  resulted had this all gone off. UNO T remained a mute spectator and failed to express the opinion of the world.

The threat continued till the end of the Cold war. But looking a century ahead we cannot expect  the present political assignment  to stay constant  In the last century Soviet Union appeared and disappeared  and there were many regional wars. Finally Soviet Union disappeared in 1990 and Russia emerged. F we survive the climate change than within one hundred years, since nuclear weapons cannot be dis invested Even we don’t consider the nuclear threat alone than there is severe  chance , perhaps 50% chance , of some catastrophic setback to civilization by deadly conventional weapons. , there is quite expectation that  that there will be another stand off  as fearsome as the cold war era , perhaps involving  more participants  than just two  and therefore more unstable.

The UNO in its present form is a white elephant. At present there are more than 53 Islamic nations, some of them oil rich while majority of them suffer from poverty and lack of modern education. These people are being guided by their religious scriptures and cannot tolerate open democracy. But surprisingly they are swarming to western countries and are disturbing social and political system of the hosting countries, Emergence of right-wing politics may be attributed to such migrants. We fear Crusade type of genocide as the radicals among Muslims are bent upon creating their influence in western countries. UNO instead of setting guidelines for them is openly siding With them even if these radicals indulge in terror activities. The terms like genocide, slaughter and horrendous killings have no meaning in a society which is bent upon surviving against all odds. Recently the Secretary General of the UNO has been sanctioned because of siding with Iran a country known as the chief source of finance for major terror outfits in the middle east. It is the first instance and is not going to end unless reforms are initiated to make UNO more

INDIA,CHINA AND THE US.

 

By K P Paswan.

It is not only difficult and impossible to predict the outcome of the American presidential election. But whoever wins he or she will have plenty of works to do. But most important will be relations between the US and China Xi Jinping has heralded a new era in global politics. New POTUS will try to project the American strength while calling for close cooperation on

If Trump occupies the Oval Office than he will realize that the Chinese authoritarian capitalist model is not supposed to survive in a global free market and China is not only distrusted but hated for its Gift Trade Trap. But he has to acknowledge that China is the single most powerful economic actor in the global economy and the US was responsible for the rise of China by sacrificing Japan. But he will have solace that in a new global order China cannot thrive Sooner or later China may be  need  fundamental political reforms , in absence of which China cannot  sustain its state capitalist system. While the US economy remains the world’s largest, China’s ability to  to use state owned companies to boost the party’s domestic and foreign  influences ensures that the emerging giant  is on track to surpass US within ten years The US is hardly irrelevant. The dollars remain the global reserve currency , a privilege  that will likely  last for decades to come. Wealthy Chinese are purchasing lands in the US and their presence in California on large scale  is being disliked by majority of Americans as the Chinese are the largest group of illegal migrants. For the American Russia and the US are competitive rivals and Russia must not allow to cross the limit of a Regional power. But Russia has never claimed as a Superpower and after the end of Cold War Russian economy is in shamble. It is fighting an expensive war in Ukraine and due to rich in oil and natural gas its economy has not collapse and on the contrary it has withstood the American sanctions and has hypnotized the entire world

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More space for India is needed. There is apocryphal story  that the present Indian PM visited a country which is also a member of EU. He visited  a site where the workers were building a canal, He asked his host why the workers  using shovels and wheelbarrows rather than modern equipment, he was told that the project's purpose was to generate jobs. Time has changed but the reality remains  that  it is far easier for Modi  to command Indian officials  to create and protect jobs New Delhi offers  direct financial and political support for its strategic industries. Xiaoping protects  Chinese companies charged with  stealing the intellectual property of  foreign firms. No such protection is granted in India

At the same time leaders of other  emerging power  with a strong democracy like India  is following China’s lead in  building system  where government embraces  commerce while tightening control over  domestic policies 

 Slow and steady growth of economy in India  must not be overlooked. By toppling the Modi government  the US and its allies assume that the long arc of  human development bends  towards liberal democracy but what if they are wrong in the context of India.

The level of protection is important in an age  when the most important  variable globally  will be the pace and  and scale of technological change. Technological upheaval is poised  to displace  hundred of thousands of workers  in the developing world  including many  who only recently  risen from poverty, India may be cited as an example. Modi's government finer control  of its economy  will help absorb  some of the shock  that will have bigger effects elsewhere.

 A few American economists have termed the Indian economy as joke as they are inspired by a former governor bank governor of India who made mess of Indian banking system. an Indian American is the president of the World Bank and he does not indulge in gibberish talk of Indian economy  India is overpopulated and highly polarized. 

India and the US are neither rivals nor competitive enemies. US is witnessing many developed countries with awe and wonder. Economy has become multi polar and China which was actually made by the US is posing serious threat to US hegemony. Fortunately China is not a Superpower and is not in a position to disturb the balance of power.In order to maintain its status as the only Superpower the US cannot tolerate stable government based upon democratic principles. Entire Latin America is at the mercy of the US. With the collapse of USSR, Africa is confused. China cannot be trusted and former colonial power UK has become economically sick. Africans are migrating to European countries for better future but irony is that these immigrants are not welcomed in the European countries as majority of immigrants follow a religion alien to European countries. India may play balancing act in several fields. Illegal immigrants from neighboring Bangladesh is presenting alarming political and economic situations but there is no fear of large scale immigrants from Africa and Latin America. India is exporting hard wares, medicines and foodstuffs to different countries of Africa and there is no dissent against India. India has friendly relations with oil rich Islamic countries and the only and chronic problem for India is Pakistan a bankrupt and self proclaimed theological country with Nukes under its possession. Pakistan is unlikely to get away from heavy external debt till dooms day. Rich Islamic states are fed up  with extending financial help to Pakistan. The US may use Pakistan to foment trouble in India and in Iran. At the same time the US wants a credible  friend if not an ally and India is proving a friend of that nature. In the past Russia rescued India from many humiliations but changing dynamics of diplomacy demands closer tie between India and US and that is happening.

 In the Ukraine crisis India remains neutral despite of the facts that Ukraine supplied deadly arms to Pakistan to kill Indians. American sanctions have failed to cripple the Russian economy as almost every member of EU is indirectly helping Russia to violate sanctions. Russia is a winning position in Ukraine even though it suffered several setbacks. But the end of Ukraine crisis depends upon dialogue between Putin and Zelensky and India has taken initiative to  bring Russia and Ukraine on the negotiating table. With change in guard in the WH we may expect an end of Ukraine crisis.

 

The world may have replaced uni polar world and a few political scientists are fond of calling the world Multi polar. But it needs elaboration. As the US remains the only superpower 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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FEAR OVER INDIAN POLITICAL SYSTEM.

 

By K P PASWAN

There is widespread apprehension that a few foreign powers may try to destabilize the political system in India forcing N Modi to vacate hs position for somebody else. This fear is not without logic. In the neighboring countries politicians in power were unceremoniously removed and in one case the PM had to seek temporary stay India. Modi is dependent upon his dubious colleagues for absolute majority. The ruling pary enjoys the support of 240 MP who were elected  by people for the ruling party but these lawmakers are of flexible loyalty and they will not mind switching sides if its beneficial to them. Than there is the grand old part which faced several splits in the paste but retained the name GOP and is an important part of an alliance known as INDI. It is an organization of old sinners, some of them are on bail while others have applied anticipatry for bail and is likely to be granted by the judiciary. 

Under such circumstances it is not difficult for a superpower  to incite unrest throughout the country on filmy ground with help from leftists and rightists.There is no scarcity of people who would go to any extent to destabilize the political system. A few retired bureaucrats with impressive followers on the Quora think Modi as the weakest PM and needs to be replaced. But they have their own agendas in their mind. These gentleman forget that the county also had three traitors as the PM who compromised security system to the enemy of India and they were parts of that administration. And Modias a PM proved more patriot with down to earth approach than those traitor

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Here we examine in brief whether the US will be benefited with the change of government in India The straight way answer is Yes. Indian import of defense related hardware from the US may increase displacing other nations like Russia and France.The US is the largest trading partner of India. This country that is India like the US is highly and dangerously polarised society. In the case of a  coalition of unwilling government  US will be in a position to influence the Indian government.    Next what are options for the US to incite unrest in India..Every thing is caste oriented in India. Forward and backward communities are divided into hundred of casts/sub casts and they predominate the society than there are highly marginalized Scheduled casts generally known as Dalits, there are also people categorized as Scheduled Tribes. Reservation at every stage of appointment has benefited these marginalized castes. One interesting point to remember is that the forward and backward castes are known for committing atrocities against the Dalits but there are exceptions. It is for the US to explore the possibilities of dissatisfaction among the different communities. India  is the only secular country in this world, the minorities  enjoy democratic rights not available in the Islamic countries. The US is the greatest enemy of Islam but it is famous for exploiting the religious sentiments of Muslim communities. The US often cautions India about religious intolerance but forgets that communal rights in Europe between the Christian and Muslims are common while in India communal rights are not seen on large scale. So the US may try to influence the Indian minorities by pointing imaginary fear of communal rights.and the administration being run by the majority.

T. It is an opportunity for the interested foreign power to engineer street protest . The time is ripe for social and political unrest in India. PM N Modi is no longer the most popular political leader of India. He has emerged as a strong statesman of the new political order but the emerging economy has not bounced as expected.The Covid 19 dampened the spirit of the administration but the common  Indian would not understand the effect. They want freebies and freedom of unrestricted  speech. With caste census in progress, India has become the only country to endorse apartheid. For SC and ST structural reform in reservation system is needed but it has become a practice to denounce these marginalized communities and there is tendency and demand to give SC?ST status to other communities .One fellow representing the dynasty has expressed his surprise that in beauty contest there was no girl belonging to backward community.This fellow appears to be mentally disturbed and is aspiring to lead the country Such type of neurotic person will be welcomed by foreign power as the new PM of India.

FUTURE GOVT,Post Modi India may not be bad for new govt of unwilling coalition. But they wont be able to improve economy. They have incompetent economists and former retired bureaucrats who think they might be able to improve economy. When every caste in India has different needs than no principles of economy will work . With revolution in IT there is mushroom growth of engineering colleges imparting training in computer technology but they cannot alter the nature of needs of common people as they want more and more money  and they dont know their aims. But what if new technology is introduced and needs advanced knowledge of computing? 

 In three states agrarian unrest has become chronic. Minimum secured prices for different crops may deplet the national treasure. If all the freebies demanded by different sections of society accepted than India may become another Pakistan, nukes but very poor economy. Still a large section of people want political power and they will go to any extent to grab political authority with help from foreign power.

India is neither a regional power nor an economic power. It was not a sovereign nation before the British colonised the Indian subcontinent. India witnessed partition and the hangover of the partition  on the basis of religion shall not be forgotten. The majority community commonly known as Hinduism is gradually shrinking. Chang of political power shall not affect the common people but it may change the political,social and economic landscape and that is what a few foreign powers want. Modi is not a bad PM but he is being projected as the murder of democracy but no body is telling us which democracy is being murdeed.

 India has a history of choosing PM from a group  of less known politicians. Let us hope that an aspiring politician who is jumping,thumping and bumping and who tells us that in the beauty contest there was no girl belonging to SC,ST, and other castes,  discarded by coalition of unwilling.It is greatest discovery but not impressive.

 

 

 

 

 

ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS IN BRITAIN.

 BY K P PASWAN.

Change of Guards in the 10 Downing street is not without problems.  The  PM is facing the  same problems like illegal immigrants and economic strains. Fortunately the Spaniard Jeremy Corbyn has not replaced Sunak as Corbyn was once described as a psychopath. But Starmer cannot expect miracles, with Cobra brigade under his command he failed to contain the riots not seen recent months in UK.

 When he storms turn out to be less severe than the the warning  there are always sigh of relief. Illegal migrants has drastically changed the political landscape the entire Europe. Social tensions are rising at a rate of dangerous ISIS, economic crisis is seen and felt by everyone. The days are not far off when the ordinary constables will be equipped with deadly weapons to control the violance

: justify;"> If the fans of the European union felt better  Geert Wilder  came to short in Dutch  election , they also took heart from the absence of  anti EU firebrands  among the leading contenders of  for this fall's German election Than came the outstanding performance of  Marine Lee Pen against  Macron. Not so far the English will soon remember that  elections are never the end of  anything, they are a beginning. Forcing voters to abide by rules they dont like  or fear the border's are unsecured, there are good reasons to doubt that  anti UK fever has broken. Starmer faces opposition  on both the far right and the far left Brexit negotiations are proving ugly. In the US the vice president Vance has openly said that UK was first Islamic country with Nukes. And Vance s not far from the naked truth.  

In this age of globalization  there is the question of identity plastics. Globalization dont just move  goods and it is alive  and well, partly because  the problems  that provoked is still with us, It moves people , feeding public anxiety  by shifting the racial , ethnic linguistic  and religious make up of communities , sometimes abruptly. Trump wants to come to power  by leveraging fears  about illegal immigrants stealing  American  jobs. the same fears have gripped the UK. Immigration was also at the heart of Brexit Developed countries have to worry  about waves of illegal immigrants  knocking at the door in search of better life. In many of these countries like the UK and France these illegal migrants live  just next door. Even in countries  with unchallenged boundaries ,racial tribal, ethnic  and religious differences  can become fault lines  when technological change  create economic turmoil. Political opportunism is universal.

The emergence of a middle class all over the world  is one of history's great success. More than two billion people have been  lifted out of poverty,literacy rate has surged and health care is now widespread. But the headlines have all been about  reaction in the UK and in the EU. Globalized trade has hit  manufacturing and technological changes  have transformed the working place. Jobs are being are being eliminated  and the world's original middle classes are shrinking. The native borne recent  immigrants  seeking work in he UK. The debt crisis has plunged UK  into austerity  and others into stagnation  just as the surge of  Middle Eastern refugees  fed fears of crime  terrorism and the loss of national identity.

The debate over illegal  immigrants is subtler  than it seems.But the fears can hardly be dismissed In London illegal population more they doubled to some 220000during the 90 and has since grown to perhaps 425000One result is the swath of local  measures aimed at illegal immigrants. Among the immigrants Pakistanis are hated, Indians are disliked and illegal immigrants from Africa are abused. During the period of Sunak stern measures were proposed to contain the arrival of illegal immigrants but the minister was dismissed and the Labor party created ruckus in the parliament. Economically Pakistanis are not contributing to the economic growth but they are strong and fanatic in religious matters.  Indian Hindus are contributing to the economic growth and religiously they are certainly not fanatic and there are Sikhs who are happy to keep the demand of Khalistan alive and are contributing to the economy of UK. Surprisingly Pakistanis are getting refugees status and enjoy certain religious freedom not available in Pakistan. They are real bigots and source of  dreaded terrorists. Patronizing these immigrants  suggest it is dangerous to appear soft on immigration Than there is the  integration dilemma. When the new PM called an integration summit  immigrants applauded, the new PM was rallying government, business and society  to bring immigrants into the mainstreams. Cobra meeting called following the deadly riots were boycotted by the leaders of minorities  as they are incensed by changes in the international laws  that will make it harder for the foreigners especially the illegal immigrants  to come to Germany.

Freedom of speech  so highly valued in UK  that those protest against this are locked up.That was the contradictory message that  sent out nearly ten years ago when  three Muslims radicals were jailed for six years for their role in a heated protest  outside the Danish embassy in London.the men allegedly  had links to Al Mujahedin , a militant Islamic group is now banned.. These sentences are likely to  deepen the suspicion  some Muslims from Pakistan that  their faith is under attack forgetting that they are living in a country which is mother of parliamentary democracy. Now Geert Wilder has issued clarion call to draw more cartoons of the religious figures and it will be interesting to know the reaction in Britain.Muslims in Britain also demands introduction of Sharia and the establishment of an Islamic parliament.The government is striving  to stamp  out support for  terrorism among the Muslims.

Entire Europe is facing the problems of illegal immigrants. They are creating laws and order problems and are indulged in terror activities. But such situation was created by European countries by encouraging the entry of immigrants. Germany is suffering because of Syrian refugees who are posing serious threat to national security. Europe is heading towards social anarchy

TERROR VERSUS TERROR.

 

By K P Paswan.

 Iran regularly hurls rocket to Pakistan, but this time Iran sent missiles inside Pakistan destroying a terror out fit and killing a few civilians. But Pakistan does not give real causality.  Pakistan thought that it was  humiliation and retaliated by missiles inside Iran killing at least nine people. So what is common and uncommon. Both are Islamic nations but with different religious ideology. Pakistan is a self-proclaimed theocratic state and the Sunnis Muslims are in majority. Economically Pakistan is an undeclared bankrupt country, searching for a money lender to borrow more and more money. Iran on the other hand is super rich and a country wherein the Shias are in majority. Pakistan is not an oil producing country but Iran is perhaps is a country with the largest deposit of oil and natural gas.

 Both Iran and Pakistan glorify terror but there is difference. Iran has no poisonous Wahhabi religious ideology to export; this country is funding terror groups which are fighting Israel. But what a surprise, The terror outfits like the Hamas and Hizballah are dominated by the Sunnis and these terror outfits are secretly hated by the Sunnis majority Islamic states. Pakistan, on the other hand thrive on terror and in doing so, it itself became victim of terror. Pakistan is funding stateless terrorists to foment troubles in India and these terrorists are giving night marish sleep to Indian security personals.

Pakistan has Nukes. Des it make Pakistan a strong nation? The answer is big no. Some of the conventional weapons are more devastating than Nukes. Before nuclear talks between the US and Iran in Doha last year, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sent a message to Biden, the president of the US. The Ayatollah asked the mighty president that a bankrupt and beggar like Pakistan and N Korea have been allowed NUKES but the same is being denied to Iran, why? And the American president still has not responded. In the popular mind, attempts to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions also mesh neatly  with the narrative of Western powers holding back Muslims. Why Iran cannot have nukes if Pakistan can?. The rulers of archly Sunni and conservative Saudi Arabia in particular, have long viewed Iran as a dangerous rival. In the 1990s they blamed Iran for stirring unrest among the kingdom’s largest Shia minority and in response helped bankroll Saddam Hussein’s war against the Islamic Republic of Iran. During the recent Israel Hamas war, some Saudi youths made the mistake of sticking the poster of M Nasrullah, the chief of Hezbollah on their windscreens, Saudi police promptly arrested them

American’s invasion of Iraq produced a cascade of responses that bolstered the resistant front in Iran. The intrusion threatened to drive a wedge between Iran and Saudi Arabia It empowered the long – long  disenfranchised Shia majority , a natural bridgehead for Iranian influence. And obviously removed Saddam Hussain’s army, the main military obstacle to the projection   of that influence  farther afield. Iran, unable to bear the Saudi’s hegemony in the Islamic world funded the Houthi radicals in Yemen to revolt against the Sunni President Mr Hadis and as a result the Sunni president was deposed and the Houthis launched attack upon Saudi Arabia.

Few Muslims elsewhere are aware that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, aside from being supreme leader of the Iranian revolution  and running the administration of the country  also styles himself as  Leader of the Islamic world . But this is not acceptable to the Sunni dominated countries.. It is also clear that  a powerful sector ofv  Iranian opinion is  so fundamentally  anti US that it will never change. Islamic countries may be ble to convince the Biden administration that  the best way to ease the tension between a Shia Iran and a Sunni Pakistan is  that the US  itself to be more flexible

So Pakistan’s possession of Nukes is not in the interest of Pakistan and if tension between Pakistan and Iran escalates, Iran may launch pre—empties strike to destroy the nuclear reactors of Pakistan.

Pakistan as a theocratic state tried to lead the Islamic nations, the same dream is also seen by Turkey and both of these Islamic are not reach. Turkey under Erdogan succeeded in reducing poverty but Pakistan’s mismanagement of economy led economic recession which has become economic recession forever. National administration in Pakistan is being controlled by the army. The army has utterly failed to control the terrorists. While in the case of India, Pak army is succeeding in fomenting troubles in J&K  the {ak army cannot match Iranian resistance. It may be noted that Kul Bhushan Jadhav, an Indian citizen being accused of Indian spy was captured by the Iranians and handed over to Pakistan, But this religious bond is going to be a thing of the past. Iran has refused to bail out Pakistan from economic recession., and is no more an ally of Pakistan. Iran is also encouraging the Baloch separatists to cause anarchy in Pakistan. So everything is not well between Iran and Pakistan

 Iran is an overambitious nation. Despite of being ruled by lunatics and religious fanatics, Iran is a modern and developed nation. Progress made by the late King are also the most inspiring achievement of Iran. Restricted freedom of speech with widespread education among women are achievements, not seen in other Islamic nations. The Arab spring failed to make inroads in Iran. And a super rich Iran is justifying to assert its influence beyond its border.

 Conclusion. It is time for the two countries to sort out their differences. China is the trusted ally of Pakistan while the US indirectly is helping Pakistan, but in case of even a small war, Pakistan will suffer badly, neither China nor the US will go against Iran. Iran is causing troubles in Gaza and in the Red sea and no Islamic country would come to the rescue of a beleaguered and bankrupt Pakistan. For India it is an opportunity to explore the possibility of befriending Iran. India is keeping the Taliban in good humor. In the long run, friendship with Iran is going to play an important in the diplomacy of the subcontinent. Pakistan cannot be a friend of India, the reasons are obvious. China has virtually  forced Pakistan to toe its lines. In the course of time, it is possible that Iran may follow the foreign policy of India.