DIPLOMAT’S EYES. BIDEN AND PUTIN FACES EACH OTHER.

By K P PASWAN,

It is certainly hypothetical question, if there is direct military confrontation between US and Russia. Both are nuclear  powered nations with capacity to destroy this planet many times. Both loved to hate each other and both are afraid of growing military and economic growth of China which is slowly expanding its undefined political and economic agenda all over the world.

In the video conversation, president Joe Biden warned Putin not to invade Ukraine. Biden threatened tougher economic sanctions in case of Russian military adventure in Ukraine. This reflects, reactionary warning of a weak president as Russia will never invade Ukraine.

In the context of Russian massive military build up to warn the Comedian who is now the elected president of UKRAINE to not join NATO. Now expansion of NATO aims at  fighting the growing threat of religious terrorism, unknowingly encouraged by former Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany. If expansion of NATO means inclusion of Ukraine than this country in future may present itself a threat to American political ambitions. Russia will not allow expansion of NATO to threaten the sovereignty of the present Russia. 

Virtual meeting between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin has averted impending crisis as neither US or EU is in a position to invest heavily just to protect Ukraine, famous for all sorts of crimes including arms supply to terrorists and drug trafficking to spend for lavish style.

 Both US and Russia are drifting towards China for different reasons. US is bent upon deriving maximum benefits from trade with China while Russia wants to counter US monopoly over world politics, this is really interesting phase in contemporary international relations.For same reasons both these superpowers will never fight with each other.

 Joe Biden and Putin are aware of Cuban crisis during the period of J Kennedy when Nikita Khrushchev tried to deploy deadly weapons in Cuba which threatened the sovereignty of US. Khrushchev had to withdraw in a humiliating manner. This time situation is different as it is US which is trying to surround Russia with hostile forces in the name of expansion of NATO.

Russia and US are battling the wrath of pandemic which has mocked the destructive nature of nuclear arsenal as the virus is more dangerous than the combined nuclear strength of both of these powers. Both Russia and US will create political and economic problems  for each other but will refrain from direct face off as the collateral damage shall never be repaired and the world politics will easily fall into the hands of criminals.

In recent years US has suffered severe setbacks in different parts of the world, but mainly in central Asia and far and East. US has failed to dislodge All Basar Assad as the president of Syria and the destruction of Iraq in the name of imaginary chemical weapons has tarnished its image, Iran is another headache. Russia may create political problems for US while negotiating new nuclear deal with Iran by US. Iran, being ruled by Ayatollahs is more modern and secular than some of the so-called Sunnis majority states with whom US has strategic collaborations to counter the Russian influence. Both Russia and US know that radicals in Islam cannot be tamed as they are serving the purposes of several prosperous nations.

 In Afghanistan, terrorists carrying heavy rewards on their heads are running the administration with American help and Russia finds itself in peculiar position as in Afghanistan it is China and not US which is involved in dirty politics.

 Russia has also created problems in far and east.  Russia and China has extended all types of support to tiny North Korea which is threatening  to not only  US but Japan and South Korea too. Russia may fish in trouble water by supporting China’s stand on  Taiwan as China has claimed Vladivostok of Russia as its own parts. Russia shall not allow China to create problems for Russia with strategic help from US.

 EU and rest of Europe may witness political and economic upheaval in near future. Germany has always been a prosperous state but badly failed to become a leading military power. Germany played important role in both the world wars only to be defeated and humiliated by winners. With collapse of colonialism, European countries can survive by cooperating both in economic and political fields. EU was created for this purpose but a willy Angela Merker twisted and tailored major decisions taken in Brussels in favor of Germany. By opening border for refugees from war torn countries of the Middle East, entire Europe is clouded with the threat of religious based terrorism. Angela Merkel cared little for other than Germany and her successor may loss the clout enjoyed by Germany. 

 France and Germany never expressed sincere condolence to US after twin tower attack, Donald Trump was aware of complicated international relations and did not pay much attention to terrorist activities in France and Germany as these two countries benefited much from famous NEW DEAL, but in return neither France or Germany proved reliable friends of US. Germany under Angela Merkel developed profitable trade relations with China and Russia, but Putin’s dislike for Angela is a known fact and reasons may be traced back to pre-unification era of Germany, New Chancellor may not be able to follow the policies of his predecessor as Germany cannot sustain economic prosperity by following hostile policy towards China and Russia. 

US is not in a position   to neglect Germany as entire EU has trade relations with China and Russia and any slight pressure upon Germany will adversely affect the economy of entire Europe,

 In the same manner US would use Ukraine a pawn to brow beat Russia but the hostility is unlikely to result in a major conflict with Russia. France has never been an ardent supporter of US and president Macron will not support US’s political ambitions by expansion of NATO  to include Ukraine as France has no enmity with Russia.

 Nuclear deal with Iran was supported by entire EU and was opposed by  Donald Trump  who scrapped the deal. Fed up with economic sanctions rulers of Iran may reach an agreement with US and thereby undermining the influence of EU.

UK is always a trusted friend of US,  post Brexit, UK will have to depend heavily upon US for logistic support.

 Ukraine is one country hated by Russia and disliked by the West, but Ukraine occupies strategic position and US may find an opportunity to humiliate Russia. UK sent the Royal destroyer at the behest of Pentagon in the Black sea immediately after G -7 meeting. UK , once again sent the destroyer to South China sea in the month of September 2021 just to placate US, Constitution of AKUS is nothing but serious attempt to take maximum advantage of trade by adopting hate and love policy to China, Australia refused to buy French submarines at the behest of US and leaving France to realize that it has no role to play where US interest clash with France.

INDIA AND AFGHANISTAN. US is following, too some extent pro-Taliban policy in Afghanistan and is not allowing Russia and India to expand its sphere of influence. Pakistan with its fragile economy may not be able to sustain its political activities in Afghanistan for a long time. Avoiding debt trap, internal borrowing appears to be only viable solution if an impending economic doom is to be averted in Pakistan.  In the name of extending humanitarian aids to Afghanistan, India has unsuccessfully tried to achieve some  political success but has failed. Putin’s visit to Mew Delhi is likely to clear the cloud of suspicion between India and Russia and US would go to any extent in  discourage India to acquire S—400 missile system which is more effective than American missiles that is S-- 35.

 Joe Biden is not a dynamic president, he is facing internal and external problems and is unable to dictate the politics of the world. US has under its possession deadly economic sanction.With this weapon US would not allow Putin and XiJinping to dictate the world. 

 FINAL WORDS, There is no threat of an apocalyptic confrontation between two super powers either in near or even in distant future.

 

OMICRON AND THE FATE OF HUMAN RACE.(up dated)

 

BY K P PASWAN.

It was presumed that mass vaccination of people to combat the deadly Coronavirus was the beginning of the end but there is no end in sight. Detection of a new variant B,1,1,529, supposed to be more destructive than Delta plus reflects the mutation ability of the elusive virus. New variant christened by WHO as OMICRON and declared a variant of concern is posing the greatest challenge to science,as the essential characteristics of this new variant is not known.

New variant was first reported in South Africa and its neighbors like Botswana, Lesotho and was carried to Hongkong, UK and a few other European country. But its real origin is not known. A report from Netherlands claimed that that variant was present in Netherlands much before it was reported in Africa. Anthony Fauccy, the outspoken and controversial expert in US jumped to the conclusion that new variant might have entered US undetected. Entire Europe and US are in the grip of Delta plus. There is no scarcity of vaccines which are certainly not perfect, but efficient enough to hibernate the virus. There are virologists who declare that new variant has the ability to reduce the efficiency of vaccines, at the same time they advocate mass vaccination.

These experts by indulging in conflicting opinions are creating confusion all over the world, but nothing can be done as epidemiologists and virologists are in great demands for wrong reasons. With limited but latest data, Omicron variant is not going to become a serious threat to our attempts to fight the virus, which has virtually convulsed the entire world.

UNTOUCHABLE SOUTH AFRICA. New variant was detected accidentally by a private practitioner named Ms Angelique Coetzee in South Pretoria who witnessed unusual but mild symptoms among her few patients, some of them were vaccinated but they were exhibiting  unusual mild symptoms and were treated at home.That virtually settles the problems pertaining to brutality of Coronavirus. As soon as South Africa reported a new variant, in a knee jerk reaction several western countries declared South Africa as untouchables and suspended flights to and from  South Africa.

 South Africa has better health infrastructure than all of the advanced countries of Europe, but vaccination covered only 6% of population. Just as entire Europe is battling the deadly  Delta plus variant, the whole of Africa is in the grip of HIV, that is the reason for the heavy loss of lives as HIV patients are immune compromised. Unlike EU, South Africa is not a hoarder of vaccines and is purchasing vaccines at high rate. South Africa is using Astra Zeneca, J&J and mRNA to vaccinate entire population. As per reports from South Africa and UK, Omicron might have emerged from an untreated HIV patient or from a persons suffering from  flue.

  Whether current vaccines, especially mRNA needs modification is difficult to predict.  WHO is certain about the high rate of transmissible, but renowned experts are supporting mass vaccination. It is clear that certain groups are bent upon creating misinformation. Omicron has 30 to 50 mutations in the spike protein region and makes the variant potential to develop an immune escape mechanism. If this is proved than mRNA vaccines may be slightly affected but may not need modification. However Pfizer went ahead and manufactured vaccines exclusively for OMICRON but there are no takers.

 There is report new variant of OMICRON BA--2 which is highly transmissible but not more than dangerous of original OMICRON, but South African experts claimed that the new variant even highly transmissible, does not escape immunity, meaning vaccines protect against the infection caused by new variant. There is no effect on Oxygen level nor loss of smell  was noticed. Doctors in South Africa claimed that unvaccinated people are vulnerable to Omicron and danger is being exaggerated by media and certain epidemiologists who have also emerged with new variant.

HOARDING. Entire Europe and certain countries are hoarding vaccines. Infection in Germany is alarming as the causality is mounting and the successor of Angela Merkel is advocating lock down followed by mass jab. Situation in other European countries is not different.

 US suffered heavily and Joe Biden’s promised to free US from Delta plus by 4^th July2021,  but failed to keep his promise.Infection has virtually lowered the ranking of the president. US president is unable to convince the groups of people, who oppose jab on religious ground that their lives matter more than their faiths and religion has nothing to do with composition of vaccines. US judiciary is favouring  people with death wish, who oppose mandating vaccines and mask. Mounting death has given an opportunity to former president Donald Trump to launch blistering attack on the health policy pursued by the administration. Anthony Fauci is giving sermons every day but with no effect. It is not known, on what ground, Fauci is telling the Americans that new variant OMICRON had already arrived in US, if it is so than genomic sequencing failed to detect the variant in time. Once he doubted the urgency of booster but now he supports booster for every adult Americans.

Infection in Czechoslovakia and Hungry is out of control and massive hoarding of mRNA and J&J vaccines have failed to ameliorate the situation.

 It appears Russian Vaccines Sputnik and  Chinese made vaccines have failed to produce desired result. These two countries are not giving correct data of death due to infection.

The latest confusion is with regard to booster or additional dose. It is crystal clear, the  Coronavirus is fast turning into an infection for the unvaccinated. Europe is suffering because rich countries have hoarded vaccines and are unable to convince the people that vaccination is the weapon to defeat the virus. There is nothing like vaccine nationalization. US has best vaccines but certain groups of American people are opposing jabs and mask mandate on religious grounds.  Appearance of Omicron indicates that like Spanish flue Corona is not going to disappear and will remain active as endemic.   What is the long-term solution?

Epidemiologists and Virologists cannot suggest permanent solution as they cannot predict the behavior of corona virus. They are in the habit of making tall and false claims. By declaring South Africa as untouchables, these experts have unsuccessfully tried to hide the failure of affluent countries in controlling the infection..

In South Africa,the deadly virus is yet to be contained. Same situation prevails in US. India with only one vaccine AstraZeneca is doing quite well. Another vaccines Covaxin is suffering from problems relating to production and distribution. Vaccination of the entire population of the earth including children above the age of five  is going to be a herculean task. It is not known the duration when the vaccines fail to sustain immunity, so booster ose is being proposed in US and also in some other countries of the earth

In US booster dose is to be administered to all adults with special emphasis on patient/persons with comorbidity. Initially booster dose was recommended for persons above70. WHO and some other real experts have denounced booster as scam as there are billions of people who have not received first dose. A close study of treatment pattern reveal that booster may not succeed in eliminating the infection, need of the hour is  to vaccinate every adult with full doses and an additional dose may be given to highly vulnerable people. Some of the pharma giants are bent upon minting money by compromising the precious lives of people. Those who oppose vaccination may be punished by making their life hell. New Chancellor  of Germany has given the slogan “Get jabbed or get infection and die”.

  Nature has its own way to punish the hoarders and the enemy of poor. Hoarding of vaccines by rich countries has boomeranged. By hoarding vaccines, they have deprived the poor nations of Africa and Asia of the benefit of vaccination. 

It is also reported that efficacy of vaccines may remain intact if mask is mandated, but a large number of people in US and EU are  dead against any protective measures. Violent street protests in entire Europe and Australia against lock down and restrictions mean more infection and more deaths.

  Now there are effective but expensive pills like Molnupiravir,Paxolovid and Sotromivab ( Recently approved in UK) to treat the brutal variant of virus. These drugs are expensive and  beyond the reach of poor people. 

FINAL THOUGHT. It appears that Coronavirus with all its variants are gradually fading, but nothing is certain. 2022 is likely to see universal vaccines capable to crush all types of variants. This is the hope of human race

PAKISTAN WITH WEAK ECONOMY.

 

 By K P PASWAN.

Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan surprised the world by declaring that Pakistan had no money to run the administration. It is strange that a country which has   nuclear bomb under its possession with heavy expenditure on army cannot run the administration. If it is truth than it means no country in the world render financial help Pakistan, not even China or Islamic nations as the reasons for an empty coffer of Pakistan is known to the world.

Pakistan happens to be a rogue neighbor of India. While India is fast emerging as an economic power, Pakistan is facing bankruptcy.  Pakistan is an Islamic state as this nation was created on the basis of religion. After it got independence along with India in 1947, Pakistan had seen strange drama, elected government was followed by military rule. Whenever there is political stability army stages coupe badly affecting economic activities. Pakistan is not rich in natural resources and in the name of export it has nothing to offer. Being an Islamic state, it has received massive help and investment from oil rich Islamic nations, but is has failed to emerge as an economic power of the sub-continent

 Pakistan has too some extent made rapid industrial progress well as is evident from emergence of small-scale industries which are doing well. These industrial units are importing raw materials from other countries, but their manufacturing capability cannot be underestimated. Widespread corruption, heavy expenditure on army, acquiring nuclear arsenals just to frighten India and funding extremists resulted in heavy strain on economy. One of the reasons of a weak economy of Pakistan is its rivalry with India. Purchasing sophisticated weapons to neutralize India is nothing but figment of imagination. Pakistan has now tall buildings modern education, independent judiciary and no special treatment to religious hate preachers . Under such circumstances Pakistan would have emerged as an economic giant among Islamic nations, but situation is just the reverse.

 Pakistan  has developed political intimacy with China which is investing in BOLT to benefit Pakistan, but closer look reveals a different pattern which in the long run may prove detrimental to Pakistan’s economy. China wants hassle free transportation of oil and minerals from Iran and other oil rich countries, but Pakistan is not going to be benefited in the long run. Mass displacement of people belonging to Baluchistan and adjoining areas is creating social problems. Pakistan’s intimacy with China just to counter India which has an open democracy,is not being appreciated by Islamic friends of Pakistan.

 Heavy  expenditure on defense  has sapped economy.  Active participation of army is necessary to contain internal violence and social tension, perpetrated by extremists. In a way Pakistan army has an important role to play if Pakistan has to achieve economic stability. Return of Taliban in Afghanistan does not augur well for Pakistan. Mass exodus of Afghan refugees and Pakistan’ s support for a theological state run by violent religious preachers are bound to have negative effect on Pakistan’s economy, it is so because Pakistan is not allergic to modern education for women , this stands contrary to Taliban's attitude towards women.

 Pakistan has a democratically elected government and requires budget proposals being crafted by economists and experts in financial matters. These steps must be the first priority of administration.  Pakistan has made admirable progress in modern communication.  Steps like education of women with no strict codes for women dress has offended a section of religious preachers, but they are not in a position to assault the democratic set up of a theocratic nation. These fanatics are loathed by educated Pakistanis. They are receiving generous fund from well do families not to preach hate but unite the different sections of society. These religious fanatics are chief source of social tensions.

There are sufficient evidences that army and high ups in administration are involved in drug trafficking and money laundering. Smuggling of narcotics by tribal of Waziristan from Afghanistan is a permanent future and even army is unable to tame these tribal, it is so because that there is lack of modern education and these Tribal are fanatics for whom killing and be killed for false dignity is of paramount importance. Construction of modern road passing through Waziristan has failed to improve laws and order situation. Without internal security economic progress cannot be achieved.

 Austerity measures must include stopping further expansion of its meaningless nuclear programmes and complete abanding of ballistic missile launching programmes. India does not pose threat to sovereignty of Pakistan. Resumption and expansion of trade and commerce with India is must if impending economic doom is to be averted. Civil administration of Pakistan is being run by educated men, they are in a better position to realize the importance of friendly relations with India.

It is presumed that Pakistan support to terrorist regime in Afghanistan was motivated by economic gain but there is no modern industries in Afghanistan. Pakistan will have to spend heavily to keep the Talibans in power which in turn will further weaken economy of Pakistan.

Imran Khan is an educated person and democratically elected prime minister, but he is behaving like the Kim Jong Un of North Korea.  There are only two political figures Imran Khan and Kim Jong Un in this world, who glorify nuclear weapons and both of these countries are filled with poverty-stricken people. Extreme poverty in Pakistan is driving people to join the terror groups.

 There are no known remedies for curing the economic illness of Pakistan, but certain measures may be conceived for immediate relief. IMF has refused to render financial help, so internal economic reform with active support of army may to some extent alleviate sufferings of people. Long term planning like Saudi Arabia may be considered for benefit in future. Pakistan’s friends Turkey and Malaysia are facing internal sectarian conflicts, moreover they are themselves are struggling to sustain the economic growth

 It is not proper to call Pakistan a beggar. Italy, Greece and even India during the period of Narsingh Rao faced the same problems. In the case of India, economy globalized and despite of pandemic India is fast emerging as great economic power of modern world.  With strong will, Pakistan may reshape its economy. Long terms plannings are needed. It is seen that power sectors in Pakistan is poorly managed and needs structural reforms, otherwise this power sector may damage economy beyond repair. Weak economy is self-made and promoted by super corrupt politicians and powerful army.

Pakistan has fought expensive battles with India, for which ultramodern weapons were purchased from western countries. These wars further aggravated economic woes of an underdeveloped Pakistan. Modernization and development of Gwador port by China is not going to boost an ailing economy of Pakistan.Under such circumstances, permanent recovery  from a weak economy is difficult if not impossible.Grand ambitions and a tendency to lead or dominate Islamic nations  are likely to create obstacles in the path of recovery.Pakistan has to learn lessons from Saudi Arabia, where the Crown Prince has undertaken well crafted steps to reform both social and economic structures of oil rich kingdom.

FINAL THOUGHT. There is no dearth of economic miracles. Miracles happened in Greece and it may happen in Pakistan.  China cannot perform economic miracles in  Pakistan. Civil administration and army have to work together for achieving the sacred goal—Remove Poverty. Imran Khan is dependent upon army for survival, but army alone cannot indulge in deliberations which demands the participation of experts and not men in uniforms. Various international financial institutions may help Pakistan with strict terms and conditions which will certainly include least role for army  and economic discipline.