CORONAVIRUS IN INDIA.

BY K P PASWAN.

In the month of January 2020 India along with countries like Japan, Germany and Brazil and some other countries was on the threshold of challenging the Chinese economy, but the country had to face unprecedented crisis when by March 2020, the Covid-19 engulfed the entire country. Following the social restrictions as suggested by epidemiologists and experts, the Govt had to impose lock down which resulted in mass migration of unskilled labors working in different parts of the country and manufacturing activities were slowed down.

 It was a race against time. India lost the battle to equalize its emerging economy with an economy of the rogue neighbor based on currency manipulation and undemocratic principles. The first wave of Covid-19 depressed the enthusiasm of every Indian. There were ups and down between March 2020 to March2021. It appeared that pandemic was  dying and the Secretary of Health declared that the Govt never promised free vaccines to every Indian. Vaccines were introduced and two vaccines manufactured in India were permitted for emergency use, but mass vaccination was not possible as there was less production than demand. Common people wrongly thought that the pandemic was over and they lowered the guard against protection like wearing mask and maintaining social distancing. Pandemic was far from over.

  When first wave was breathing heavily,Delta plus variant appeared from darkness and once again India was in the grip of severe Corona virus. Along with new variant, epidemiologists  created confusion by their bizarre predictions. There was acute shortage of vaccines and oxygen, it appeared that the world was going to witness merciless killing of Indians at the hands of brutal virus.  Hoarding and smuggling of oxygen cylinders were reported. Infected persons had to pay bribes for treatment in Govt hospitals.

Antony Fauccy, the US epidemiologist is known for his shifting stand and was hated by the former president Donald Trump. Fauccy suggested complete lock down in India for few months but The PM of India was wise enough to learn lesson from the last lock down which resulted in mass sufferings of Indian. Nothing was mandated and by a series of restrictions, India was able to monitor the infection throughout the country. Vaccination was encouraged  free of costs to every citizen. There was increased production of Indian made vaccines. By Sept 2021 Delta variant was to some extent disciplined,the result is surprising, India is doing well, while rest of the world is facing the wrath of another variant christened by WHO as OMICRON.

 Vaccines manufactured in India  was conceived by Oxford Zeneca in UK,platform was prepared by Ms Sarah Gilbert and proved effective against the Delta variant. Second vaccine Covaxin is actually manufactured and conceived in India but its application on large scale is not seen.

  What caused second wave? Some of the self-styled experts, intellectuals and politicians who also emerged simultaneously with Delta plus are openly accusing the PM of India for resurgence of Corona virus.Nobody on this earth ever anticipated the emergence of Covid--19. In Brazil the variant commonly known as P1 was initially mocked by the president of that country, as this variant was not anticipated by top experts. The former president of US was also in the habit of mocking Corona virus. More Americans died during the period of Joseph Biden, but unlike Trump he is not hated by majority of Americans for some unknown reasons.

 The number of deaths in India looked to be even worse than officials were letting on.  Analysis of crematorium statistics in three cities, Delhi,Mumbai and Madras found that the fatalities released by authorities appear far from reality. The magnitude of that finding is amplified by the fact that India's official statistics are already shattering global records for daily infections. But these figures are far from absolute truth. Rich and poor Indians died in a worst possible manner but unlike China India never tried to hide the figures of causalities which may change in future when normalcy returns to pre-Jan 2020 level. 

The Chief Scientific Advisor to the Govt of India is a man, who is respected and trusted, while briefing the electronic media, he explained in detail the reasons behind surge of infection and we are grateful to him for removing the cloud of suspicion. How do we see the emergence of variants and warning of a third wave? Mr Raghwan is more straight forward than Antony Fauccy. He cleared our misconception of airborne Covid virus, the concept of which is being falsely spread by electronic media.

There is somebody either in Pentagon or in Wuhan in China who is not telling the truth about the origin of Corona virus. The bipolar politics of the world is being led by US and CHINA and both are acting in a strange way, not harming the economic interests of each other. There is no hidden agenda, as both US and China are aware of the brutality of the virus. But while tackling the pandemic, there must not be any dirty politics.

Narendra Modi happens to be an honest politician with down to earth approach. In the beginning of the pandemic, his every step was welcomed and his popularity reached its zenith. When in the beginning of 2021 when pandemic in India was hibernated, conducting election in WB. Tamilnadu Assam and UT Puducherry and opening of Kumbha gathering and permitting Cricket matches, provided stimulus to a dying virus which surged causing panic in the entire country .

 Now it is a hard fact that even without election , large gathering and sport activities, Delta variant was not going to be stopped as is evident from its brutal behavior and speed of transmissible through out the world.Vaccines manufactured in US like mRNA, J&J and Russian Sputnik V were likely to be introduced but economic compulsion was taken into account and only Russian vaccines were permitted for emergency use, Production of Covishield and Covaxin was encouraged and  steps were taken for mass vaccination  with result that India is doing far better than the rest of the world.

 At present there is no shortage of vaccines, in fact a large number of vaccines are lying unused and vaccines are being exported to other countries at moderate cost. If somehow by the end of this year, 90% of people of India are vaccinated then Modi may reclaim his lost glory and it is not hard to achieve the target. But how to inoculate the people?  We know that a large number of criminals belonging to every political party are finding an opportunity to deal in business of death. Rounding of criminals selling certain drugs in black markets bear testimony to the presence of criminals with no feeling for human life The pandemic could be at least temporarily under control in India by December of this year if most people get vaccinated and keep taking necessary precautions. 

 Almost every developed country of Europe is engaged in hoarding vaccines leaving the people of Africa at the mercy of cruel virus. But hoarding of vaccines boomeranged and three advanced countries of Europe UK, France and Germany are reporting death and infection as if vaccination is yet to be started 

 Entire world is fighting like hell.. PM of India is successful as a political figure but he underestimated the behaviors of Corona virus.  Mass vaccination is being carried out with vigor and he is in a position to guide the nation in right direction.

 When we compare situation in US with India we find situation is gradually improving giving a boost to national economy. Infrastructures relating to health has improved and in the event of third wave with different type of variant, India may be in a position to defeat the virus.

Omicron is the latest variant of Coronavirus which was first reported in South Africa and within a short it spread like wild fire in UK and other European countries. This variant is highly transmissible but less brutal than the Delta variant. Nevertheless, this variant is being taken as variant of concern, India is well prepared for this new Omicron which also affect fully vaccinated people but in most of the cases hospitalization is not required except in the case of persons with co morbidity. It appears this Omicron is testing the efficacy of existing vaccines.

 Conflicting opinions by experts and virologists are creating fear psychosis, This is evident when they talk of booster dose and vaccination of  kids. So far kids in India are not showing looming danger. Vaccines for children is likely to be permitted in next year. Booster dose is  surrounded by controversy. In US a large number of people are yet to be  given first jab  but booster dose has been mandated for certain categories of infected persons. In coming months, we may hear second booster and even yearly booster.

 No vaccines is perfect and even in the case of Omicron  experts are advocating vaccination. In absence of data it is premature to conclude that existing vaccines fail to protect against new variant. WHO is not encouraging booster dose for everybody.

Albert Bourla, CEO of Pfizer, Stephen Bansel of Moderna and Mathai Manmman of J&J have refused to tweak their vaccines, as they are convinced that their vaccines may crush Omicron. Technology is changing overnights In 2022 we are going to see new sets of vaccines which may prevent Coronavirus from taking the lives of infected persons.

New variant Omicron may become third wave in India, but it is likely to be short lived. Omicron may not impact Indian economy badly. Expensive oral pills have been introduced in open markets but these drugs are beyond the reach of common people. Vaccination is the last and only alternative

 India is unlikely to suffer as it suffered between May and Sep of 2021. Baring Kerala and Maharashtra, other states are showing promising result of mass vaccination. Credit goes to Govt, health workers and above all general consciousness of the people as is proved by violent protest in Europe and  in Australia against lock down and vaccine mandate. No such protests were reported in India.

 

DIPLOMAT’S EYES. BIDEN AND PUTIN FACES EACH OTHER.

By K P PASWAN,

It is certainly hypothetical question, if there is direct military confrontation between US and Russia. Both are nuclear  powered nations with capacity to destroy this planet many times. Both loved to hate each other and both are afraid of growing military and economic growth of China which is slowly expanding its undefined political and economic agenda all over the world.

In the video conversation, president Joe Biden warned Putin not to invade Ukraine. Biden threatened tougher economic sanctions in case of Russian military adventure in Ukraine. This reflects, reactionary warning of a weak president as Russia will never invade Ukraine.

In the context of Russian massive military build up to warn the Comedian who is now the elected president of UKRAINE to not join NATO. Now expansion of NATO aims at  fighting the growing threat of religious terrorism, unknowingly encouraged by former Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany. If expansion of NATO means inclusion of Ukraine than this country in future may present itself a threat to American political ambitions. Russia will not allow expansion of NATO to threaten the sovereignty of the present Russia. 

Virtual meeting between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin has averted impending crisis as neither US or EU is in a position to invest heavily just to protect Ukraine, famous for all sorts of crimes including arms supply to terrorists and drug trafficking to spend for lavish style.

 Both US and Russia are drifting towards China for different reasons. US is bent upon deriving maximum benefits from trade with China while Russia wants to counter US monopoly over world politics, this is really interesting phase in contemporary international relations.For same reasons both these superpowers will never fight with each other.

 Joe Biden and Putin are aware of Cuban crisis during the period of J Kennedy when Nikita Khrushchev tried to deploy deadly weapons in Cuba which threatened the sovereignty of US. Khrushchev had to withdraw in a humiliating manner. This time situation is different as it is US which is trying to surround Russia with hostile forces in the name of expansion of NATO.

Russia and US are battling the wrath of pandemic which has mocked the destructive nature of nuclear arsenal as the virus is more dangerous than the combined nuclear strength of both of these powers. Both Russia and US will create political and economic problems  for each other but will refrain from direct face off as the collateral damage shall never be repaired and the world politics will easily fall into the hands of criminals.

In recent years US has suffered severe setbacks in different parts of the world, but mainly in central Asia and far and East. US has failed to dislodge All Basar Assad as the president of Syria and the destruction of Iraq in the name of imaginary chemical weapons has tarnished its image, Iran is another headache. Russia may create political problems for US while negotiating new nuclear deal with Iran by US. Iran, being ruled by Ayatollahs is more modern and secular than some of the so-called Sunnis majority states with whom US has strategic collaborations to counter the Russian influence. Both Russia and US know that radicals in Islam cannot be tamed as they are serving the purposes of several prosperous nations.

 In Afghanistan, terrorists carrying heavy rewards on their heads are running the administration with American help and Russia finds itself in peculiar position as in Afghanistan it is China and not US which is involved in dirty politics.

 Russia has also created problems in far and east.  Russia and China has extended all types of support to tiny North Korea which is threatening  to not only  US but Japan and South Korea too. Russia may fish in trouble water by supporting China’s stand on  Taiwan as China has claimed Vladivostok of Russia as its own parts. Russia shall not allow China to create problems for Russia with strategic help from US.

 EU and rest of Europe may witness political and economic upheaval in near future. Germany has always been a prosperous state but badly failed to become a leading military power. Germany played important role in both the world wars only to be defeated and humiliated by winners. With collapse of colonialism, European countries can survive by cooperating both in economic and political fields. EU was created for this purpose but a willy Angela Merker twisted and tailored major decisions taken in Brussels in favor of Germany. By opening border for refugees from war torn countries of the Middle East, entire Europe is clouded with the threat of religious based terrorism. Angela Merkel cared little for other than Germany and her successor may loss the clout enjoyed by Germany. 

 France and Germany never expressed sincere condolence to US after twin tower attack, Donald Trump was aware of complicated international relations and did not pay much attention to terrorist activities in France and Germany as these two countries benefited much from famous NEW DEAL, but in return neither France or Germany proved reliable friends of US. Germany under Angela Merkel developed profitable trade relations with China and Russia, but Putin’s dislike for Angela is a known fact and reasons may be traced back to pre-unification era of Germany, New Chancellor may not be able to follow the policies of his predecessor as Germany cannot sustain economic prosperity by following hostile policy towards China and Russia. 

US is not in a position   to neglect Germany as entire EU has trade relations with China and Russia and any slight pressure upon Germany will adversely affect the economy of entire Europe,

 In the same manner US would use Ukraine a pawn to brow beat Russia but the hostility is unlikely to result in a major conflict with Russia. France has never been an ardent supporter of US and president Macron will not support US’s political ambitions by expansion of NATO  to include Ukraine as France has no enmity with Russia.

 Nuclear deal with Iran was supported by entire EU and was opposed by  Donald Trump  who scrapped the deal. Fed up with economic sanctions rulers of Iran may reach an agreement with US and thereby undermining the influence of EU.

UK is always a trusted friend of US,  post Brexit, UK will have to depend heavily upon US for logistic support.

 Ukraine is one country hated by Russia and disliked by the West, but Ukraine occupies strategic position and US may find an opportunity to humiliate Russia. UK sent the Royal destroyer at the behest of Pentagon in the Black sea immediately after G -7 meeting. UK , once again sent the destroyer to South China sea in the month of September 2021 just to placate US, Constitution of AKUS is nothing but serious attempt to take maximum advantage of trade by adopting hate and love policy to China, Australia refused to buy French submarines at the behest of US and leaving France to realize that it has no role to play where US interest clash with France.

INDIA AND AFGHANISTAN. US is following, too some extent pro-Taliban policy in Afghanistan and is not allowing Russia and India to expand its sphere of influence. Pakistan with its fragile economy may not be able to sustain its political activities in Afghanistan for a long time. Avoiding debt trap, internal borrowing appears to be only viable solution if an impending economic doom is to be averted in Pakistan.  In the name of extending humanitarian aids to Afghanistan, India has unsuccessfully tried to achieve some  political success but has failed. Putin’s visit to Mew Delhi is likely to clear the cloud of suspicion between India and Russia and US would go to any extent in  discourage India to acquire S—400 missile system which is more effective than American missiles that is S-- 35.

 Joe Biden is not a dynamic president, he is facing internal and external problems and is unable to dictate the politics of the world. US has under its possession deadly economic sanction.With this weapon US would not allow Putin and XiJinping to dictate the world. 

 FINAL WORDS, There is no threat of an apocalyptic confrontation between two super powers either in near or even in distant future.