DONKEY FIGHTS ELEPHANT, AMERICAN POLITICS.(updated)

By K P PASWAN

I am tired of talking of Trump, declares Joe Biden,  Donkey, the party ’symbol of the Democrats and Elephant, the party symbol of the GOP are engaged in a fierce battle for survival and has created a vicious political impact. 

Strange things are happening after 6^th Jan when a few hundreds overzealous supporters of Trump attacked and vandalized the Capitol. Intense rivalry between the Democrats and the Republicans tend not to as vicious as they were under Trump, when Mitch McConnell declared to crush the Democrats with merciless cruelty. Acquittal of Trump is redolent of that time, when a leading Republican declared that they cannot represent Christ of the Bible. Whether the former president Donald Trump was involved in inciting the mob has been examined and thoroughly investigated by the Capitol police. For the first time in America, a defeated president was impeached for a criminal activities.

FIGHT LIKE HELL

A pertinent question remains unanswered, why an impeachment was initiated by Nancy Pelosi, even after knowing that the impeachment was likely to be collapsed in absence of two third majority in the Senate. Contrary to party line, six Senators belonging to Republican party voted in favor of impeachment. But these dissenting Senators including Mit Romany cannot be called defectors. He is an old critic of Trump, while Mitch McConnell appears to be a confused and selfish. 

Election of next presidential election is far away, but both the Democrats and the GOP have started searching potential candidates. Kamla Harris of Democrats and Nikkei Hailey of the GOP, both are without mass following, but are dreaming of becoming, the next president of the mighty nation.

Donald Trump's instructions on illegal immigrants were far more sweeping. The administration was to focus not just on immigrants with criminal convictions, but even on those with unsettled charges.

BILLIONAIRE PRESIDENT .Donald Trump was like any other president, except that he is one of the richest persons in the world, and the first billionaire president of the US .But unlike Woodrow Wilson, he cannot be called as a racist. He was dead against illegal migrants from several Latin countries, who fed up with corruption of politicians in power, tried to flee away to the US and enjoyed the support of Democrats. Alexandria Occasio Ortez belongs to a rich country, but a corrupt Govt has resulted in poverty stricken people fleeing to USA This policy has nothing with racism or untouchability practiced in India by the ruling class. Trump was also against Technical giants of the USA, who established manufacturing units in China and many Latin American countries just to avoid taxes and indulged in money laundering and in the process helped enemies of USA. One of the techno giant who is famous for calling himself as a proud Homosexual of the US was accused of helping China in crushing Uighur Muslims.

BIASED MEDIA.

The previously sycophantic media have starting airing the scenes of attack on the capitol hill on 6^th Jan every five minutes. The best test for Joe Baden is to institute mechanism for freeing America from the criminals drug peddlers, and above all Jihadist, who are not accepted to contribute to the growth of American economy, but to thrive on stimulus packages. But there is little sign of that. Biden was elected defeating Trump, but he has made no pledge to reform the economy. Treasury Secretary is a renowned economics and as Chairperson of the Fed Reserve was admired even by Trump. That makes all other changes look a bit like window dressing. 60 percent Democrats believe that government regulations are necessary to protect the public interest, compared with just 31 percent of Republicans. If Biden goes by this logic, than nothing prevents China overtaking the US economy in a few years, and Biden is unlikely to succumb pressure to the left wing of the Democrats as no Americans worth the name would like migrations of remaining Techno giants to China.

Foreign policy was supposed to overhaul, but no major shift so far has been noticed in foreign policy. Instead the Pentagon is busy in denouncing and threatening economic sanction owing to a military coup in a poor Myanmar, but no warning was issued against China for supporting and perhaps engineering the military take over in Myanmar. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a paranoid president of Turkey dared not to speak hard against Trump, because he feared that Trump was trying to create sovereign nation for the Kurds in Turkey, but now he is accusing Biden administration of supporting the Kurdish terrorists The Republicans have long held the advantage on issue of terrorism, but the strategy got a bit harder this time, as Trump shifted his attention for war in the Middle East, and  the illegal migrants became more toxic. The poll showed a relentless downward trend in the number of people who believed that the Americans did the right thing by going into Iraq, 

The war in the Middle East is one of several underlying factors, fueling the spread of Jihadist movement. Assassination of Iranian’ General Suleimani and eliminating the self styled Caliphate Baghdadi, were supported by Trump's rivals. Does it mean that Trump should be held accountable for anti terrorism’s dirtiest business?. In the same way Biden did not  face an apocalyptic confrontation in Afghanistan, by gradual withdrawal of the American soldiers.

TRUMP AS MAN OF WORDS.

  After Second World War, the US suffered economically, because of prolonged war launched in Korea, Vietnam Iraq Afghanistan. Marshal Plan and New deal reshaped war torn western Europe, but it put the American economy under strain. When Trump tried his best to withdraw American soldiers from war ravaged countries like Iraq and Afghanistan, it was a master stroke of diplomacy. After all the war in Vietnam was started by Kennedy, who was a Democrat. Joe Biden as a Democratic Senator suggested division of Iraq in three parts with separate homeland for the Shia, the Sunnis and the Kurds. It remains to be seen if the president revives those proposals?. That nasty proposal means American soldiers will have to stay in Iraq for a longer.

Coming to Corona Virus, more people have died since 20^th Jan, when Joe Biden was sworn as president, and the situation is to some extent improving owing to mass vaccination and the credit cannot be taken by Biden’s administration, who are busy framing. new criminal charges against Trump, all these charges being investigated in various states are related to finance deals of Trump and are not likely to stand in a court of law.

 STIMULUS PACKAGE. The GOP maintains without justification that stimulus package must not go to illegal Hispanics immigrants, while the Democrats want them for all. Biden fixed the month of July, as the month, when every American would either be vaccinated or the virus would be tamed, so that the next Christmas will be normal, but by July, we  witnessed  mounting casualties as the new variant of the China virus is not likely to show slight mercy to the vulnerable Blacks, Hispanics and people of South Asian origin. If mass vaccination succeeds, than situation may improve making it possible to encourage a depressed economy to emerge as robust.

CRIMES.  White supremacy is the product of mind of both the Democrats and the Republicans. As soon as Biden was declared as winner, demands were raised to appoint brother in law of Kamla Harris, as the new Attorney General of the USA, Kamla Harris's sister Maya Harris is married to a black legal expert, this was surprising because the gentleman proposed for the federal attorney general, does not enjoy much popularity. His name was proposed simply to protect the rights of the Blacks, but barring criminals and drug trafficking, no Black faced discrimination and a large number of Blacks were given b top ranking posts by Trump.

  GUN CULTURE It is difficult to eradicate Gun culture in the US, as there is  no sincere efforts both by the GOP and the Democrats. Headlines like these would suggest that Americans have extra reasons to lock their doors both at night and sometimes at day. Biden’s actions on Guns Culture would be keenly watched. The number of people who are very worried about crimes during Biden’s presidency is up, while number who are not worried is down and for the most parts people are expected to be preoccupied with economy.

Donald Trump was a political giant, who was seen by Biden as direct challenge to his power, but there is little sign that Mr Biden’s leadership has been seriously threatened by Trump. Biden  is  facing more threats to his authority by the disgruntled Democrats, than a divided GOP. In the next four years these Democrats may indulge in devoting time in framing new criminal charges against Trump rather than helping Biden in reshaping the economy and democratic institutions in the USA. 

FINAL WORD.

It appears the ghost of late American political scientist Arthur Huntington is hunting Biden more than Trump.Paramount duty of the new president will be, how to establish a harmonious American society.Coronavirus is damaging the national image of US, despite of best vaccines,manufactured by Giant US Pharmas, a large number of Americans are avoiding vaccination Joe Biden is facing several challenges, and he needs the support of Republicans.  

 

       

SCIENCE,RELIGION AND GOD

BY K P PASWAN

EINSTEIN once remarked ''I would have been sorry for Dear Lord, if my theory of relativity is proven wrong".

 The quotation as mentioned above, was not used as metaphor.Theory of Relativity has neither been replaced or falsified and has become immortal giving rise to speculation that, Theory of Relativity predicts a Creative Agency.

The greatest of physicist of human civilization tried his best to modify Relativity by integrating Quantum effects with relativity, but failed. It is interesting to note that Einstein was awarded Nobel Prize for his discovery of Photoelectric, which comes within the parameter of Quantum physics.Even after a lapse of one hundred years(Theory of Relativity was propounded in 1915), no breakthrough, has been achieved, in integrating Relativity and Quantum effects,  both are poles apart.  Physicists after physicists are trying their best to replace, theory of Relativity by a unifying theory, known widely as theory of Quantum Gravity or Theory of Everything, but their efforts are ending in abject failure.

It is often said that science and religion are poles apart, but in reality, this thinking is far from truth. Many scientists including a large number of Nobel laureates in physics and chemistry are religious by nature, and an Indian scientist and world-renowned physicist and Nobel laureate, the late S Chandrasekhar used to call himself as an ATHEIST HINDU, but he observed all the Hindu rituals.

 At present more than 335, Americans have been awarded Nobel prizes in different subjects, but majority of them are physicists, and contrary to Steven Weinberg, only five have declared themselves as atheist, and none of them are physicists, except Weinberg. Even in the case of Stewen Weinberg, it is difficult to say, whether he was an atheist or a believer. He was a Jew and a supporter of Israel A Reverend Father in London, who is also a qualified physicist, declared sometimes back ‘'Before Big Bang GOD is amazing, but after Big Bang, He has become more amazing".

 Late Stephen Hawking asks in his book, A Brief History Of Time,if there is a GOD, than who created him? It is extremely surprising, because while refusing the existence of GOD, Hawking thinks that the universe is brute force, than on the same analogy, theologians are right in saying that God is a  Brute Force. 

First Cause is the fundamental of western and Christian philosophy. As per Christian belief, GOD created the universe out of free will, that he is above time. This thinking has been examined both by scientists and theologians, while the later sticks to first cause, the particle physicists tries to remove any reason or cause with the help of Quantum physics, but it is a wrong to say, that the First cause has been removed, it stands firmly and is immune from every assault by scientists.

 REASONS OF CONFLICT. Fundamental Science is making tall  claims that they have solved the mystery behind the existence of the universe without God. But this is a farce and misleading. Religion preach  that the universe has been created by an omniscient and omnipotent God. But this thinking was challenged by  David Hume, the great philosopher of 18th century, by his  devastating argument, ‘If the evil and suffering of people are known to God, and he cannot remove these, he is not benevolent, and if the sufferings are not known to him, than he is not omnipotent, so GOD cannot be both omnipotent and omniscient’. 

 Then there is mind boggling question, if God had been content to endure for eternity without a universe,what caused him to make up his mind and create one? There is no answer to this question.

  Newton was very religious, even though his theory of gravitation limited the power of God. Pale,a British theologian propounded Design theory, it was so compelling that it appeared GOD regained lost power, but this glory was short lived as Darwin inflicted a fatal blow to the philosophy of design by presenting theory of evolution. This theory of evolution, suffers from age old conundrum, that is evolution from what and into what? No authentic answer is available. So Pale's designer is back in action.

Twentieth century witnessed more and more study on the presence of a divine power. Theory of Relativity is far better than Newton’s theory of gravitation. An expanding universe is the fundamental to Relativity, it implies that in the paste, the universe must have been compressed to a point smaller or equal to proton, this is known as singularity, which is less understood and still undefined. Singularity led to the emergence of Standard Model or creation of universe in a big bang. Still there was enough scope for a supernatural power to play dice at micro level, as theory of relativity breaks down at singularity.Quantum physicists boast of removing GOD  from this position,but they are not telling the truth, because they are not in a position to unravel the truth.

 Cosmological time has neither past, present and future. If we imagine of a divine power concerned with our well-being, than he must be working in time which means, he is certainly neither immortal nor omnipotent. But it is just an assumption. Theologians and scientists try to solve this conundrum. St Augustine, a theologian of ancient time placed GOD, above time and nearly solved the problems.Still definition of time is needed to create final theory of creation of universe.

 EMPIRICAL CONTENT. Science is about empirical content, but this is not relevant.  There is nothing that is scientifically proven. When theory changes, the content also changes. General Theory of Relativity explains in detail, only the universe from the time, when big bang happened, but before big bang there is undefined moment, and field is open for Quantum physics. If universe is to be explained on the basis of singularity, than Relativity and Quantum physics must be integrated to give rise to Quantum gravity. Scientists have failed so far to merge quantum physics with relativity. If Scientists say they have solved all problems, they are hood winking the world.

STRING. String theory incorporates gravity, but the creation conundrum still persists. So, physicists introduced Quantum loop which is slightly better than string theory, but creation conundrum is not vanished, so there is M membrane and theory of multiverses, which are supposed to remove GOD. M. theory combines in hundred ways Quantum effects with Relativity,  and one is free to draw conclusion, in his own way. Many worlds theory, is based upon Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle. By this theory, attempts are made to remove God by presenting infinite number of self-organized universes, but it is not fully developed or  proved. So a better theory is being searched in the form of Theory of Everything  which according to a world famous cosmologist of Britain will explain nothing.

ROLE OF EQUATIONS. Hawking asks "What is that  breaths fire into equation that make a universe". Here the brilliant   scientist was criticized by several physicists. Even the final laws of nature, shall not create a universe, these equations simply will describe the operations of the visible universe and nothing else. Hawking along with few known physicists, desperately  tried to search God in equations, but failed and than sought the help of controversial Anthropic principles to explain certain natural phenomena, not explained by known laws of physics.

GOD DELUSION. In a book of the same name, a British scientist Richard Dawkins refutes the existence of God. But in the same book, he writes that technically God's presence cannot be denied, but it is impossible.  This is surprising, if anything is technically possible, then it must be further investigated. Multiverses theory is being explored by many physicists,as it is a possibility in Quantum interpretation of initial conditions.

 Dawkins launches a tirade against religion, and he may be right, as we see army of fanatics,in the name of God and religion are masterminding serial blasts and killing innocent people. But misuse of religion cannot be the basis for denying the existence of a super natural power. He describes Einstein as an atheist, but the quotation as given by a famous astrophysicist and mentioned  in the opening  paragraph of this blog contradicts Dawkins conclusion.

Richard Dawkins has no feelings for those highly qualified scientists, who defend their faith in a super natural divine power. Dawkins tries to justify theory of revolution to deny the existence of God, but theory of evolution is not the ultimate theory to explain the origin of this universe.

Martin Rees, a famous British physicist and popular science writer was awarded Templeton award for writing something good about Church and religion. He was condemned by Richard Dawkins and declared that he was surprised that an atheist Martin Rees was accepting Templeton Award. But the fact is that Martin Rees is not an atheist, his books, suggests the presence of a Deity.It is  surprising to see, a large number of believers being declared as atheists by Richard Hawkins in his book GOD DELUSION.

 ROGER PENROSE is a Nobel Laureate in physics and a leading authority on Relativity. He asserts that the present universe emerges from a previous universe, this is like a cyclic universe mentioned in Hindu Scriptures. Problems of entropy( Disorder) in a cyclic universe may be solved by a new set of laws, yet to be discovered. Sir Penrose and late Stephen Hawking are famous for their works on Black Holes.

BLACK-HOLE. Black hole is known only for its destructive powers, but what is its scientific definition?It is defined by global geometry, if there is a single black hole. But due to its destructive nature, and when stars collapse and merges with a black hole, its definition is changed.In such case, there is no fundamental difference between elementary particles and black holes.In other words, we may count every particle as black hole,but that is not correct.

A Hindu scholar once asked Hawking in London in 1997 or 1998 about destructive powers of popular Hindu goddess Kali,  the Hindu scholar wanted to know whether Goddess Kali was an embodiment of Black hole? We do not know the answer,but the Hindu scholar was happy and next day caught flight for India to offer worship to the said Goddess in Kolkata.As per Hindu philosophy manifestation is the central theme and not the creation.This philosophy is more or less supported by some scientists, including legendary Heisenberg and Oppenheimer,

CREATOR CONUNDRUM. Theory after theory is being propounded to explain the universe next theory, may prove better than previous one, but it will not explain the origin of universe All these so called theories from Standard Model to Quantum loop gravity are based upon Relativity.

The universe is evolving and certainly, we  are not the final target.The process of evolution will continue,till the  universe's expansion halts, starts contracting and disappears or bounce back at singularity with new laws. This has been proposed by Roger Penrose.

  FINAL WORDS . Frustration looms large over the human race as the creator, if there is any, is not showing his presence to the faithful, and if there is either no creator or a creating agency, then present laws of physics cannot explain an universe inhabited by intelligent being.

POLITICIAN NOT STATESMAN( ERDOGAN).updated

 

RECEP TAYYIP  ERDOGAN.

(Clever politician,Not a clever  Statesman)

   BY K P PASWAN

SICK MAN OF EUROPE. After world War11 Turkey was declared as sick man of Europe and this sickness is rightly attributed to the corrupt and unpopular Ottoman empire. Kemal Ataturk  who ended the Caliphate  and declared Turkey as a Republic in 1923, had little or no options for undertaking development work on a grand scales , so he devoted his entire career to end the influence of Mullahs in political systems. Without separating religion, he brought all the Mosques under the control of the govt and the holy scriptures were replaced by western system of jurisprudence. 

Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and his followers were influenced by French ways of life and were convinced that religion must be swept away from society. But unlike France there was no separation of Islam from the state. It means separation of Islam from the state was not only difficult but virtually impossible. The great Ataturk introduced  secularism in Turkey, which were unheard in other Islamic states. It was left upon the army to protect secularism, if situation arises.

KURD.  Kurd constitute a sizeable population in Iraq, Syria, and Turkey and are source of trouble for Turkey. Most of the past 70 years since 1970 the  Turkey’s 14 millions Kurds  who identify themselves as a separate nation have been brutally repressed. Now Erdogan thinks that if he recognizes the autonomous province of Turks in Iraq in exchange of peace in Turkey, than it will be the greatest achievement of Erdogan, who is also beset with troubles with Greece, Cyprus and Armenia.

NATO. Strategic importance of Turkey was seen in the formation of NATO. It was concluded that without Turkey, security of the whole of non communist Europe was impossible, as the USSR was fast emerging as a military threat to non-communist countries. But with the collapse of USSR, Turkey lost its strategic importance, and it was not seen as a valuable asset by the West. Erdogan perhaps anticipated the weakening of NATO and prepared himself in a more dramatic way to transform Turkey, strategically importance in a different ways.  Radicalism was to be gradually introduced in a phased manner as the army was custodian of secularism in the country.

RISE OF ERDOGAN. Erdogan meteoric rise to power may be attributed to an overambitious corrupt, but less active army which in the name of protecting secularism, brought all types of decadent western values, unknown to the fundamentalist secularists. Mushroom growth of night clubs, availability of pornographic literature and open consumption of liquor in religious places, presented an attractive platform for a soft-hear ted politician named Recep Tayyip Erdogan to grab power with a hidden agenda. He is the most sought politician in Turkey, so much so that his introductions of rigid Islamic laws, do not matter much so long as poor Turks do not suffer economically. Mr Erdogan and his fellow Islamist have done more to transform and modernize Turkey than any of their secular predecessors except Ataturk and  Turgut Ozal a visionary PM in 1980s.

Many Americans agreed by 2007, that despite of Erdogan conversion to  radical Islamist,  he was the man most, fit to lead Turkey. They recall the protracted squabbles, economic mismanagement and massive corruption of the string of secular coalitions that crippled Turkey before Erdogan advent in Turkish politics. Thanks to his bold diplomacy that without Western support, Turkey become prosperous enough to flaunt the West and the USA on many counts. But radicalization of Turkey with a booming economy was not of importance unless Turkey was admitted to the EU which would give Turkey a dominant role in the Islamic world. Turkey, under Erdogan has become a full fledged Islamic state with little or no scope for  liberal values in a society which ran contrary to philosophy preached by EU. Recently he converted an ancient Church which was a tourist center to a mosque despite of the fact that Turkey  has not recovered fully from hunger and poverty.

RADICALIZATION Erdogan radicalization is not without reasons. Erdogan is not a much trusted man in the White House. In 2003, Turkey disallowed US troops to pass through Turkey to fight against Saddam Hussein. The Kurdish fighters played havoc with ISIS, which was secretly helped by Erdogan The trickiest part of Erdogan policy towards the Kurds is that he  has combined Turkish nationalism with radical Islam. Another trouble with Erdogan is his egocentric image which prevents to remain out of limelight.

 The opposition parties though allergic to even slight hint of army’s intervention, nevertheless have accused Erdogan of being insensitive to basic human rights. With Baghdadi,  death there are two possibilities, being flared off. A new generation of Kurds having gained efficiency in deadly guerrilla war with ISIS, may unleash a series of violence and in that case, Erdogan may convene a constitutional assembly to gain unlimited executive power and remove all his opponents by unfair means including restoring death penalty. Turkey was supposed to fill the vacuum as a result of Brexit but now it is not even a distant possibility.

What is worst is the political philosophy of the main opposition Republican Peoples Party. Nobody knows just what it stands for? The Kurds surely want Erdogan to remain in power as Erdogan talked openly to Kurdish leader Abdullah Oclam. Erdogan shares an Islamic past, he describes himself as conservative democratic, championing religious values and a free market. He declares that Turkey needs a more liberal secularism like America.

ERDOGAN BEING WATCHED. After ISIS defeat Erdogan every step is being watched by the West and above all the hawks in the Pentagon is reporting to a new President. Erdogan effort to befriend Russia and China is being seen as a last attempt by a democratically elected president of Islamic Turkey to show the West that he is not without powerful ally. Biden’s close proximity with Iran must be worrying, not only the Jewish state but also Erdogan as his closeness to Saudi Arabia, once annoyed the secularists within and outside Turkey. Erdogan friendship with the Shiite rulers of Iran do not matter much with the West, as Turkey under Erdogan is in the process of becoming another Pakistan, that does not augur well for the liberals of Central Asia and the West.

It is irony that almost every state in the middle east is facing sectarian divide and is engaged in violent internal conflicts. Muslims are killing Muslims, giving enough reasons and scope to the west to take advantage of the situation much to the detriment to the liberal Islamist. Erdogan has also disturbed the political equilibrium in the middle east.

UNEMPLOYMENT. Erdogan biggest failure has been to create jobs for around 700000 Turks  who enter the labor market every year. Fearing that the sworn enemies of   the sovereign Turkey, the indomitable Kurds would occupy the territories vacated by the ISIS, Erdogan has ordered his army to enter Syria but this time Erdogan demoralized army, met its final match as Peshmerga, who in collaboration with the US are driving the Turkish army from Syria and in the process generating enough sympathy from the West to carve out a sovereign state for the Kurds consisting of swaths from Iraq, Syria and above all Turkey. The booming economy, once again is in mess. Erdogan attempt to befriend Putin is not likely to bear any fruit, Russian’s economy is already in shambles due to tortuous economic sanctions imposed by the West and the USA.

 FINAL WORDS. It is difficult to evaluate a politician like Erdogan, who has survived political turmoil against all odds, for a long period in the middle east, but nevertheless, he is responsible for economic growth of Turkey. His attempt to form a powerful Islamic front opposing Saudi Arabia  with Pakistan and Malaysia has backfired. Every political ruler in this world, barring exceptions are power hungry selfish and corrupt. Recep Tayyip Erdogan is not an exception and may be evaluated as a clever politician but not a clever statesman.

AN AUDIENCE WITH A COVID 19 PATIENT(True Story, updated)

 

(True Story)

BY K P PASWAN

Years ago I was in a position of strength in a large town of India. I needed a Credit card of a reputed foreign bank which operated only in select cities. An executive from the bank visited me, filled the form and put the form for my signature.Since I was not a permanent citizen of a city, served by the bank.I was denied a Credit Card.

AN EXECUTIVE ONCE AGAIN. After six  months a lanky human figure appeared before me, presented his visiting card. He happened to be one Mr. Sharma, a senior Executive of that particular bank. Mr. Sharma, with a degree from California Institute of Technology, appeared, to be a real gentleman per excellence. Any way he informed me, that he was on an inspection visit to the local branch of that foreign bank and that he was paying as a courtesy visit to me.  I was surprised, Sensing my mood he removed my doubt, and the next moment, he gave me a very pleasant surprise. He told me that he was married in  my district town, and that he was the son in law of a person about whom, I was well informed. His father in law owned a chain of vegetable restaurants all over the state . He never mentioned my application to his bank for a credit card.

 LENGTHY TALK. Casually he told me that several members of his in law’s house own the credit cards of that bank, and that if I wanted a credit card, he would provide me irrespective of address. I thanked him and refused the offer. He remained in the city for a week and  met me thrice, impressing me with his experience in various fields including his stay in the world famous education center.

Disappearance.  After six months he came again on an inspection tour, he met me and this time he was more open in his conversation. He was not happy with hard work in banking, he wanted to join some reputed corporate houses. Now it was my turn to speak, I told him to try his luck in Latin American countries, but he countered that most of the countries were poor, than I told  him that a large number of Neo rich Americans were going to Mexico and other countries to establish manufacturing units. They are contributing to the economic growth of these countries, but are also involved in money laundering and evading taxes in their own country.   He listened to me with great attention and departed. After one year I also left the town for another city and almost forgot Mr. Sharma who disappeared from my memory.

       My home district connects different parts of the country . My home town is also well connected by railways, but for visiting big cities I have to go to the district town situated at a distance of nearly sixty kms.I never visited the restaurant owned by the in laws of Mr. Sharma. After seven years I was no longer in a position of strength but after that I traveled widely.  From 2015 to 2019 so many ups and downs were seen in and outside of India. In international politics China emerged as a second economic power and posed a serious danger to American economy.

       SUV. I was holidaying in my home, reading the latest edition of the National Geography, when at about 3 pm I saw an expensive SUV, followed by half a dozen local boys. Sighting of cars are very common in my countryside villages, but the expensive SUV was new to my neighbors, one elderly person was directing the driver of the SUV towards my home and within minutes the SUV stopped just in front of me. A healthy and slightly fat middle age man and a woman with two children alighted from the SUV and greeted me. I was not only surprised, but shocked to see Mr. Sharma as it was after some time that I recognized him. Any way it was a pleasant moment to greet the couple.

 He told me to remember the conversation we had nearly eight years ago. He confirmed that not only Mexico but countries like Panama was swarmed with the Americans business magnets, and both these countries were economically flourishing, that he joined one of the giants of American economy with fat salary and excellent perks. He along with his family were coming after performing puja in an ancient  temple near my home town . A famous Hindi movie in late 1950s was filmed near the temple, and one patriotic song of this movie is still popular and much in demand. After staying nearly four hours Mr. Sharma and family departed.

  A few days later on, we were sitting in a Press Information Bureau of my district, A few  officers were sharing our discussion, Anti Dalit agitation was going on  against reservation and also against a special act which gives superficial protection to Dalits. I started the debate, ‘Let us abolish reservation to remove unemployment in India, to my utter surprise Mr Sharma addressed small gathering of VIPs and declared that with abolition of reservation, India  may witness the emergence of Apartheid in a new form.  Every body was taken aback.

 HOWDY MODI,  I have limited option and resources to undertake foreign travel, but an opportunity presented itself and I was there. My close friends including two officials living in Latin countries and of course Mr. Sharma were present at the venue. Before I proceed further I would like to narrate an interesting evening,  my diplomat friend pointed his fingers to a handsome fellow, belonging to Cow belt in India. This fellow a Brahmin, is married to a girl belonging to an extended family of  the former PM of UK, and is in the habit of abusing his own religion by publishing articles in American magazine This fellow was also present with his  followers to oppose the PM(Narendra Modi).  Than a strange thing was seen, which no body was going to believe even in future. A White American with his wife and a toddler on his shoulder approached us to inform that they had come from a far away place to listen to Rajeev Gandhi, he was unaware, that decades have passed since the late PM was assassinated.  After listening to sad story,the white American with his wife left the venue without listening to Indian PM.

Narendra Modi is an honest politician, CAA,NRC and other measures are necessary if the sovereignty of India is to be preserved. He is a democratically elected PM but not immortal, he replaced Manmohan Singh, and one day he may be replaced by another politician, and we will be listening to him. Than why there is hue and cry about certain actions of the govt, which are necessary for future development of the country. Any way we listened to the Indian PM and left the venue. After few days It was time for my onward journey. I was seen off by my friends and of course Mr. Sharma.

  DOOM AND GLOOM. When we are preoccupied we may not see and realize the change of seasons. In the month of Nov/Dec19(2020) Corona virus emerged from Wuhan Institute of Virology, spread rapidly, engulfing the entire planet, claiming lives without distinguishing rich and poor. In India there was complete lock down, but before that, I was warned in advance by a well-wisher in China. I hurriedly came to my village which is like a small town. With mounting casualties, I began to fear for the worst.  In the beginning very, little was known about this killer virus and this prompted a few world leaders like Donald Trump, Boris Johnson and Bolsonaro to treat the virus like any other flu virus, and this bizarre thinking led to heavy casualties in Italy, Spain, USA, Brazil and almost all the countries of the world. In absence of any established drugs greater emphasis was given to isolate the infected persons with a  traveling history.Very soon community transmission was noticed, and for a while it appeared that the Biblical concept of the Apocalyptic end of the human race was knocking the door. 

    DOOM CROWLLING Large number of panicked laborers working in South Indian states from my  surrounding villages returned, but we were ready to meet such existences A doctor(M.R.C.P) in his early 80 called a meeting of the people, a committee was formed , and war  declared against killer virus. All the labors were kept in isolation in the local middle and primary schools, women were accommodated in separate rooms. Chlorine and Multivitamins were kept ready for use, if situation warranted.  It appeared that Corona was more frightened than the people who were in isolation, they were, singing dancing and merry making. One evening, there was gun shot near a primary school, we rushed to the scene only to find, a large gathering, watching Bharat Nat yam, being performed by some of the male laborers, clad in Saree.

 At the end of isolation period every one was welcomed back in his home. But there was no happy ending in other parts of the state. Corona infected persons were left to die in a worst manner.  I feared lose of my well-wishers and friends, now in future there will be nobody to greet me on arrival and seeing me off on departure.  My two friends posted outside India always reminded me of precautions like wearing masks,maintaining social distance and frequent hand washing.

VOICE FROM THE PASTE. It was frightening to remember near and dear, whose very existence was not known. It was the last week of Sept 20, that in the midst of night, I received a call, it appeared to be a voice from the past, but as soon as I recognized the voice,I jumped from the bed, it was Mr Sharma, calling from the US. He informed that he was infected with Covid 19 and got admitted in an American Hospital, where he was treated with Hydroxychloroquine and multivitamins and that all the physicians and health workers were Americans and very cooperatives, He also informed that the son in law of the extended family of the former PM of UK was  also lying side by side with him and kept a copy of holy GEETA, which was smuggled to hospital by his British wife and kept under his pillow, he also recovered, and  attributed his recovery to his fate, I was not interested in knowing about a hypocrite.

         Mr. Sharma diverted the topic, and my fear disappeared.  From the conversation it followed that HQ Chlorine is widely used drug against Coronavirus in the US and all over the world, and if given in initial stage than almost every patient without comorbidity recovers. FDA has not banned this drug and simply ignored for consideration. Heavy casualties in UK,Spain,Italy and US is attributed to use of expensive drugs for treatment. At the time of writing this blog it was reported that a cheap parasite drug Ivermectin is being used to fight the South African variant of the Corona 19 while the efficacy of vaccines is being questioned and there is a talk of modifying the vaccines.

FINAL WORDS.
There is nothing more to talk except one conundrum. Why a highly educated Pushkarna Brahmin came closer to an educated Dalit? He never tries to misguide me and vice versa. It is a mystery and let it remain a mystery. There is a proverb “You cannot enjoy suspense if you cannot anticipate it” but than who knows?

Saudi Arabia as Defender of Islam

 

 BY K P PASWAN

Saudi Arabia has recently declared itself as the defender of Islam. Saudi Arabia being the custodian of the holy places, is already defending the Muslims pilgrims and enjoys extraordinary popularity among the Muslims all over the world. Any attack on Saudi Arabia may be regarded as attack on their faith .The time of this declaration is of paramount importance. Joe Biden being the president of the USA is under pressure to patch up diplomatic and political differences with another wealthy and rich Islamic state, Iran. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who, is in command of the Shiite nation political system, has already declared Iran as the defender of Islam. Does this means Clash of Titan? Answer depends upon various factors,like response from other Islamic states.

The scions of Saudi Arabia’s moneyed class are unimpressed, they cling to the specter of a battle between Radicals and the reformists. The real worry is shift of wealth from old corrupt elite towards moderates, educated either in the West or USA. Among the reforms undertaken by the young Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, popularly known as MBS is trying to trim the influence of the ultra radicals.MBS focus on issues such as more rights to women, has helped to feed a dangerous anti MBS feeling. In contrast , rights given to women in Iran run contrary to  preachers of hate by the Wahhabi. The last attack by Al Qaeda in May 2003 claiming at the times and afterwards 280 lives and the recent attack on the US embassy in the capital of Saudi Arabia has largely subsided. The authorities in Saudi Arabia have destroyed many of the terrorist’s cell.

OIL BOOM UNDER ALI YAMANI. In the decade of 1970 when oil boom was at its zenith and the ministry of oil was headed by Ali Yamani, the brilliant oil minister, is starting to look threadbare, Ali Yamani had to resign, simply because he did not belong to royal blood. Despite of oil boom  we find down  at  heel suburbs poor Saudis live side by side with Asian and African workers. We don’t find such situation in Iran, wherein equitable distribution of wealth is more apparent and no royal blood is seen any where meddling in political affairs as there is no royal blood left in Iran. Saudis also share the virulent of anti US of other Arabs, a sentiments  fed by the chaos in Iraq. The Wahhabi and Salafism are adept at playing a long game .Even if driven out under grounded for a while they have an unsettling habit of bobbling up later. The Crown Prince’s allies/supporters a coalition of liberal princes and technocrats are  weak by comparison’s rivals  who tend to equate reforms with weakness.

Saudi’s unemployment an oddity in an oil rich country is posing a great danger. The Crown Prince faces danger from two sides, private sectors which employ cheap hard working foreigners than expensive leisure loving Saudis and secondly from conservatives, who  see him as a brash secularists, who has grown to big for his boots, He also faces the opposition of an alliance of powerful  and corrupt senior princes. In Iran such nefarious activities are nowhere seen.

Iran’s overseas terrorist activities seem to confine to certain part of the middle east, It exports terror and not the religious philosophy to punish allies, whether these allies are Muslims majority states little matters to the ruling elite. Iran and some of the former states of USSR are past partners, missile roguery seem bent upon testing the world’s anti nuclear rules to destruction.

Palestine, is divided and afflicted with sectarian conflict. The Hamas controls GAZA and is intolerant to Mahmud Abbas, the real successor of Arafat. The Hezbollah is being supported by Iran to oppose Mahmud Abbas, and endeavor for the formation of an independent Palestine state, but it has become a distant possibility because of rigidity and uncompromising attitude of Hamas, so in future a unified Palestine state is impossible to achieve. With passage of time the Sunni majority states are no longer sympathetic to the cause of Palestine. The stateless Palliation offer nothing unless these citizens give up rigidity. There are reasons to believe that Israel and Saudi Arabia have secret deal.  Jerusalem as new capital of the Jewish state recognized by US has no strategic importance to other countries opposed to Iran. Russians military bases in the Middle East are secure and is causing much concern in Saudi Arabia.Several Sunni states admire Iran’s assertive foreign policy, but they hate Iran's closeness to Russia, which is also building a nuclear power plant in Egypt. France is not lagging behind, with French economy sputtering, the Middle East offers a lucrative market.

TRADITIONAL RIVALRY.

Rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia are based on the form of religion. Religion has never been binding force between man and man. Defender of Islam also means defending  different sects of the same religion, whether they are Sunnis or Shiites. Saudi Arabia is Sunni majority kingdom and all its neighbors are Sunni majority states being ruled by autocrats and  all are oil rich.

  On the contrary Iran is a Shiite majority sovereign, self proclaimed theocratic state. The president of Iran is a democratically elected figure, but for all political activities he is accountable to a religious figure Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who controls the elite the Revolutionary Guards and may supports or reject any proposal of the president. In this world there are few Shiite states, but they are neither rich nor resourceful and are dependent upon Iran for economic support.

SELFISH FRIENDS. Saudi Arabia is a kingdom devoid of any strong political institution, barring municipal corporations for which women can participate in election. Both Iraq and Syria are having large number of Shiite population, but unlike Syria, Iraq was ruled for a long time by a devout Sunni Saddam Hussein, but the paranoid dictator Saddam did not discriminate against the majority Shiites. There are three Islamic states who don’t like the supremacy of Saudi Arabia in Islamic states, these three states are Turkey an industrialized state but without oil or natural resources, Pakistan a self proclaimed theocratic state with nuclear arsenal but heavily  indebted state and is a serious threat to India, third country to challenge Saudi Arabia is Malaysia a conglomerate of Zamindars (Local Muslims Emirs) who  are corrupt and for them religion means preserving their thrones.

ISIS. Is an organization determined to preserve the supremacy of Sunnis and this organization emerged after the execution of Saddam Hussein. One hate preacher Abu Bakr Baghdadi declared himself as the new CALIPHATE and created havoc in the Middle East. This organization received help from practically all the oil rich  kingdoms of the Middle East and when these Sheikdoms felt threatened, the ISIS was downed and the  Caliphate fell into the hands of Trump’s commandos.

 Saudi Arabia has practically lost the expensive and prolonged war in Yemen, which is being helped by Iran, and in a way Iran is directly hurling some of the dreaded missiles into Saudi Arabia. As a richest Islamic state  Saudi Arabia has utterly failed to help  poor Islamic countries of Africa, these countries are rich in natural resources, but are suffering due to bloody tribal conflict, each tribe wants to establish supremacy upon others and religion don’t matter to the warring factions. Simply helping these countries with a dose of Wahhabi and Salafi is not going to help the Saudi kingdom, on the contrary it will help the willy Ayatollah of Iran who has nothing to export in the name of fanatic philosophy but is in a position to export lonely Wolf to attack the Saudi, the Jewish state and USA.

 If Iran acquires Nuclear bomb than it will encourage Saudi Arabia to acquire  bomb with the help of Pakistan, who will go to any extent, if good price is paid. Iran has silently moved towards Russia and China and there by   disturbing power equations in the middle east and is giving a night marish sleep to several European nations and USA. Russia is no longer a super military power but strategically Middle East is importance to counter USA. China being an opportunist, will try its best to preserve its economic superiority. China is helping Iran and Syria to build up a strong firewall to check USA and the West. Saudi Arabia and its allies are also frustrated by the absence of American  leadership, situation is likely to worsen with Joe Biden' policy of no support to Saudi Arabia in Yemen.

 ALLIES OF SAUDIARABIA.

Saudi Arabia may find many modern Islamic states supporting reforms being undertaken by a few in the oil rich kingdom. Morocco being ruled by a king is an ancient kingdom. The present king appears to be a sophisticated ruler and not averse to reforms in social life even if it means antagonizing radicals. The King of Morocco received the Pope in person. Rabat is a city of Monaco where there is no or little presence of radicals. Unfortunately the Moroccans are involved in terrorist activities in France and Belgium. Algeria is another modern country where we find a presidential system of government, deadly opposed to radicals. The country is supposed to help Saudi Arabia  against Iran. TUNISIA is a very rich country which witnessed emergence of Arab spring that washed away secularism prevailed in some form under the Autocrat Ben Ali. Tunisia supplied largest number of terrorists including women to ISIS who were exploited by the ISIS. LIBYA is oil rich country but facing bloody civil war and the country is opposed to IRAN, one section of warring factions are supporting Turkey a potential rival of Saudi Arabia.

NIGERIA has a sizeable population of Muslims, they live side by side with the Christians, thereby giving a opportunity to Bokoharam,  who wants to impose Sharia upon the unwilling people. Chief source of income of the BOKO HARAM is kidnapping of school going boys and girls and releasing them after receiving huge ransom. Nigeria is one of the richest countries with plenty of oil and gas reserves . Nigerian president Mehmet Buhari is a tolerant Muslim politician opposed to BokoHaram and he is unlikely to support Saudi Arabia because of its huge Christian population.

FINAL WORDS  Neither Saudi Arabia nor IRAN are likely to be the real defender of religion. With deadly killing machines at their command, they will threaten each other but they will not fight. The Ayatollah of Iran and the king of Saudi Arabia know that fighting with nuclear arsenals mean annihilation of both.           

 

VACCINES NATIONLIZATION, MYTH OR REALITY

.

By K P PASWAN

This unfortunate planet is still under the grip of Wuhan virus, named by WHO as Corvid- 19. This virus transmits from one human to another so rapidly,the fear of human race extinction was widely circulated. But the frightened human race is on the threshold of colonizing the red planet Mars and establishing human settlement on the Moon. Pharmaceutical Cos accepted the challenge to fight the virus with limited fund.

 There is still no permanent cure and a vaccine is the only hope if human race is to survive the pandemic.  Reputed Pharma Cos succeeded in manufacturing vaccines, based on conventional technology and the technology based on latest mRNA, which may ultimately proved a game changer  for Covid19.

At present we have only three brands of Vaccines approved by FDA and one AstraZeneca by UK. Several vaccines for the Wuhan virus are on different trial stages, allaying the fear of some self appointed experts that development of covid vaccines may take at least five to ten years, little knowing that data analysis is being  achieved by  sophisticated computers with lightning speed. With so many vaccines at our disposal, one particular person who happens to be chief of WHO has raised the concern relating to Vaccine nationalization.

Needless to say that Tedros Adhanom is not a medical professions. He was a  Foreign Minister of Ethiopia, a poor country in the grip of a deadly civil war. As a Health Minister, he effectively shielded the outbreak of Cholera which resulted in heavy casualty. Tedros Adhanom is being accused of shielding China.He declared in the month of Nov/Dec2019 that the virus could not transmit from one human to other, thus assuring the world that there was  no danger to human kind. Later on it was revealed that he presented this theory at the behest of Chinese Dictator Xi Jinping.

WHO. Whether or not the WHO is granted greater independence from politician, the vast sums of money flowing into it demands  close scrutiny. Almost every drug undertaken for Solidarity trial was rated as ineffective and rejected. Adhanom  failed to pinpoint any effective remedy for infected persons. Surprisingly high performing Pharma companies that were granted extra  freedoms to fight the lethal virus including the right to borrow money, did well and introduced two effective vaccines for treating coronavirus. Adhanom hopes that with Joe Biden’s support, his recommendations  will be used  to help patients belonging to underdeveloped countries, choose vaccines. But  are the right things are being measured? Or are these findings show the figment of imagination?

NO BLACK MARKETING. Neither any Pharma Cos nor any Govt on this earth are involved in hoarding the vaccines and vaccines are not being sold in black market. Several vaccines are on the pipelines and positive results for proper distribution may be seen by the end of the current year. No Pharma Cos are selling vaccines at high price to poor countries. The WHO under Adhanom  concerned over new variants of Corona virus. The WHO’s Chief is silent about the type of  patients infected by new variant in South Africa, which is not a poor country, but being ruled by a corrupt Govt. Here is true facts, most of the infected persons are also suffering from HIV and vaccines are found to be slightly less efficient, but still effective enough to neutralize the virus. Vaccines based on mRNA technology is successfully applied in Brazil and US to fight the  new Delta variant,  and unnecessary alarm is being raised by the WHO. New vaccines like Novavax  which is yet to be approved is  effective against new variant of South Africa and US.

HELPLESS EU. It appears that EU find itself in precarious position, because its eagerness to vaccinate the people belonging to the countries of erstwhile USSR which are now members of EU`. The Corona virus is rampant in these countries and there is limited supply of approved vaccines. The Pharma Cos are bound by agreement to supply  agreed quantity of vaccines to countries which ordered in advance. With gradual rollout of vaccines like Novavax and J&J, situation is likely to improve. and Tedros Adhanom needs not worry as UK has already promised 2 billion doses to underdeveloped countries. Moreover only three approved vaccines, nobody can expect equitable distribution  of vaccines among the whole population of the world.

INDIAN VACCINES.  India’s role in helping the poor countries remains unnoticed. India has its own source of vaccines. AstraZeneca and Covaxin manufactured in India, is proving unmatched in efficacy. It may be noticed Germany where vaccines emerged first has decided not to  use  Astra Zeneca vaccines to person above 60 in age, but in India due to trade rivalry AstraZeneca has established an edge over Covaxin.India is also supplying vaccines either free of cost or with minimum prices to its neighboring countries and exporting vaccines to Brazil and a few other countries.

Production Capacities. This serious problems led to artificial shortage of vaccines seen in EU. Belgium has ordered an inquiry as how the AstraZeneca is exporting vaccines manufactured in Belgium to UK without knowing, that UK ordered the supply of vaccines when the EU was not even considering the approval of vaccines by Pfizer. With limited production capacity and with increased demand, surge upon surge of the pandemic is seen in certain countries.

PRICE AND  COMPETITION. At present Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are expensive and in each cases two doses are mandatory. J&J vaccines  is supposed to be less expensive and is based  on a single dose. By the end of  NOVEMBER of this year. Vcurac and vaccines from Sanofi--GSK are going to hit the market. We are going to witness fierce competition and price war. Rich and poor will have an option to choose vaccine as per his/her purchasing capacity and the so called vaccine nationalism will loss its appeal. Sovereign nations will have the power to put a cap on the price of a particular or all of the vaccines. In India's three doses Zydus Cadila, Covax and one mRNA vaccines are supposed to roll out by the end of this year. In this way situation is not bleak for poor nations

CHINESE VACCINES. If Tedros Adhanom is so serious about vaccines nationalism than it is high time for the WHO’s chief to look towards China for immediate help. It is not known whether the expensive Chinese vaccines are killing people or neutralizing the lethal virus. China is the only country, which in the period of pandemic, has earned huge profit to the tune of 2 billion dollars by exporting facial masks and other medical equipment to different countries in the  world. It appears that the Wuhan virus before outbreak warned the Mandarins “ Be careful we are coming” So China can supply free of cost its vaccines to poor countries. Another solution is that Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, in consultation with Mr. Guetress the UN Chief should call an emergency meeting of all political heads of the world to pass. a  resolution ,requesting the Economic super power(China) to supply vaccines free of cost to underdeveloped countries. The resolution is to be ratified by the Security Council, but this is unlikely to be materialized as China enjoys Veto power and China will be more than happy to exercise this veto in the interest of China. 

NEW VARIANTS. These variants are being seen in South Africa,UK,Brazil and several other countries. Some of the Virologists were expecting such variants and some of the experts predict reduced efficacy of vaccines. But existing vaccines are fighting the lethal virus and unnecessary alarms are being raised.In the same manner, there is little scientific evidences of serious side effects of AstraZeneca vaccines,but several countries have restricted its use.

FINAL THOUGHT. Vaccine nationalism is a myth. With limited quantity of vaccines available, it is a question of survival of the rich and poor. Everybody wants to survive. The worsening situation in the EU,UK, US and in a few countries may be described as serious, because the Govt failed to impose guidelines effectively.Present production capacity of vaccines cannot cover the entire world. So necessary guidelines like wearing mask,  maintaining social  and frequent washing of hand are essential, till vaccines are produced on large scale.

LIVE AND DIE. IRAN AS MESSIANIC CULT.

 

 BY K P PASWAN

Years ago a very handsome Jewish youth described Iran, than ruled by Ayatollah Ali Khamenie as the Messianic cult,  the youth was destined to become the prime minister of the Jewish state, but his concept of Messianic apocalyptic cult is proving wrong. The existence of Israel has been recognized by  many Muslims majority states including states, which participated in the war of 1956/57 against Israel. Iran is not in a position to play the role of Messianic apocalyptic cult. It is so because Iran itself fears its own annihilation,  not by Israel, but by a group of Islamic nations.

 NUCLEAR POWER.  Iran is on the threshold of becoming a nuclear power. Pakistan as a nuclear power is posing threat to more powerful India. But Iran’s nuclear arsenal means, threat to weaker Islamic states and the mighty USA. There is another joker on this planet who is obsessed with the idea of annihilating the mightiest power on the earth and  his name happened to be Kim Jon Un  of N Korea.  China is bound to defend N Korea by a treaty of 1963 even if it means direct confrontation  with USA.  But Iran is not N Korea. Iran has the wealth and capacity to defend its sovereignty against all odds, but is afraid of economic sanctions. Iran has defied the Security Council’s direction to stop enriching Uranium and declared war on Iran’s internal reformists, who they suspect are agents of the West. But the dangers are that if  Iran develops nuclear weapons they  might fall into the hands of terrorists.  It has elements of democracy, an elected parliament and an elected president. But ultimate political power lies in the hand of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,  who with elite, but corrupt Revolutionary Guard and a group of corrupt billionaire Clerics are hell bent on shaping the destiny of a prosperous Iran.

Contrary to Saudi Arabia, young people in the street of Tehran and in other town dress themselves in latest fashion, even if the jeans clad women  are obliged by  Mullahs to wear headscarf. But they are  bored by the slogan of a long ago revolution, and impatient to move on. If given an option, educated Iranian women would not mind migrating in large number to Canada and work there as health workers and teachers. It has been developing ever since  the Ayatollahs and his coterie  began to fear that  their revolution would not survive the encroachment of Western ideas, satellite televisions and the rise of a generation that had no direct memory of revolution.

 PROGRESS. Americans say that Iran may have nuclear bomb by the end of 2021 but is it possible? Making and preparing the fuel is the hardest part. Iran may have 3000 centrifuges hooked up by the end of this year and their maximum is up to  5000 centrifuges How to put up  centrifuges into a nuclear weapon  will take time, but some body is keenly watching every step being taken by the Ayatollahs and Mullahs. And that somebody is none other than the man who once denounced Iran as a Messianic apocalyptic cult. Iran has its own nuclear raw materials and possesses much of the relevant technology A further danger is that if , once Iran went nuclear others in the region like Turkey and Saudi Arabia might feel to compel to follow.

 While some of its neighbors  struggle with commodity based economics, Iran is busy reinventing itself as logistic and service hubs. Several things have come together to produce extraordinary boom. Despite of economic sanction , the economy will expand by more than 10 percent, this is faster than elsewhere in central Asia (Source IMF) The late Shah was an autocrat, but cared for general uplift of common Iranian and did not care for the Clerics and the Mullahs. Actually Iran under the ousted king made rapid progress in the field of industries. He created necessary infrastructure for manufacturing activities. Rome was not built in one day and certainly modern Iran was not created by Ayatollah and greedy Mullahs. In religious matters the Shah simply ignored the Clerics and this resulted in general uprising in the only Shiite majority state on the earth.

 The Late Shah Pehlevi also supplied oil to Israel invoking the wrath of other Islamic states. So with the ouster of the Iranian king, the first Ayatollah Khomeini found an Iran already on the path of an emerging economy. The ousted King of Iran also conceived idea of generating nuclear power for peaceful purpose . With the introduction of internet based communication a new dimension was added to economics. With so much oil revenue under his disposal, the first Ayatollahs Rohilla Khomeini was compelled to spread education and create more infrastructures for future economic growth. Study of contemporary Iran revels interesting facts. While prescribing strict dress code for women,they were also encouraged to receive modern education, this run contrary to the philosophy of Wahhabi and Taliban who oppose modern education for women.

 CORRUPTION The present Ayatollahs  is not without scandal free. A handful of families continue to control the national wealth and  most of the high ranking Revolutionary Guards and Clerics are highly corrupt. If Iran’s boom is to propel it swiftly to developed country  over the next decade, it would help, if  it rested  on a strong institutional foundation propel.   The West is not at all convinced that escalation of sanction would help ease the tension, this could simply provoke an embattled Iran to adopt more belligerence towards Saudi Arabia and USA and above all Israel.

 RECONCILIATION. An attempt at reconciliation between The US and Iran sputtered into life with the entry of Joe Biden into White House. Iran’s internationally recognized president Ruhani was but hitherto ineffective president who favored reconciliation, but few experts were betting on success. Reconciliation with Iran means annoying Sunnis majority neighboring states and the Pentagon may resort orthodox methods not to antagonise Saudi Arabia by supplying sophisticated killing machines perhaps more deadly than nuclear arsenals. And that may distract Iran from gaining a nuclear bomb. Donald Trump’s policy War on terror was  a bumper  Stricter but unlikely to be followed by Biden. Situation has rapidly changed in the middle east as is evident from recognition of Israel by its neighboring countries. It appears Biden is no longer a policy   neophyte but he has himself positioned as the voice of his party’s left wing who are generally  anti sematic. Anti West and anti USA. Agitation  in Iran has been  fueled by  a brew of misunderstanding and opportunism that prevails in much of the Middle East.In that sense this anti West feeling in the Shiite nation has resulted in religiously infused brand of democracy in Sunni majority states

.Meanwhile Iran has elected a new hardliner president Ebrahim Raisi, who is popularly known as hanging judge. Ebrahim Raisi has been called as Butcher of Tehran by Israel.

 After change of Guards in the White House,  hectic political activities in Central Asia are being seen. This is not surprising, traditionally, The Democrats are anti Iran and pro Saudis, after all it was democrats who conferred upon China as the most favored nation. We see a different form of political equations in Central Asia. Iran is no more serious of destroying Israel, which is capable of defending itself without the  help of US.  It is doubtful if any Iranian leaders including a neurotic Ahmadinejad and the paranoid Ayatollah, ever talked of destroying the Jewish state, Iranians are simply interested in creating a Shiite Palestine state and is funding terrorist organization like HizBulla and the Hamas .

FEAR OF ATTACK.     CIA never tells a wanted Iranian that you are wanted, just entertain them, befriend them and eliminate them as is evident from killing of Iranian General Soleimani  in an American air raid. But brutal killing of a leading Iranian Nuclear scientist prove that the Mossad is far advanced in applying the principle ‘just eliminate’ them without courting a friendship.

APPLE AND F.B.I. Three years ago there was terror attack by a Lone Wolf in the US in a night club, wherein a large number of Transgenders were merrymaking, more than 50 of these unfortunate persons were killed by an Afghan terrorist, who was also shot dead. Later on the FBI found that the dead Afghan had conversation with some persons by an Apple smartphone. The FBI sought assistance of Tim Cook. who refused to assist in the name of privacy and roared like an African lion ‘I am Proud to be an American Homo Sexual. FBI lost case in a court of law and after searching every nook and corner of the earth, turned to MOSSAD, who cracked the smartphone’s  code and the companions of the Lone Wolf are languishing in maximum security prison. 

In a way Israel has learnt to live with in such a hostile situation, The US may resort to air attack upon the Iranian nuclear manufacturing centers but for Israel, it is impossible to cross 1100km (Iraq and Syria both Iran’s allies). Mossad simply  will go to Iran in groups, cause havoc and slip away. it is called as Dogs of War. Israel  has learned lesson from the Munich Olympic where the German intelligence displayed its incompetence by allowing the Palestinians terrorists to butcher sportsmen from the Jewish state., in a way Indian RAW is more superior than German intelligence Agency. So Iran will never dare to nuke the Jewish state without losing at least 10 millions Iranian. Iran with deadly nuclear arsenals will fight its only rival Saudi Arabia for supremacy

 THE FIRE IN HELL. Saudi Arabia is constantly exporting Wahhabi and Salafis to different parts of Gray Area who preach Jihads, but Iran afraid of being surrounded by hostile elements would simply export its own brand of terrorists only to Gaza and Hamas controlled territory, as Iran has no poison in the form of Wahhabi and Salafis. Joe Biden knows that reconciliation with Iran and not economic sanction may prevent Iran from tilting to China and  Russia and thereby preventing a new variant of Cold War. But what an irony!. Iran has already tilted towards China and Russia and Saudi Arabia losing battle in Yemen has  frightened the Pentagon.

FINAL WORDS.

 The handsome Jewish youth who coined Messianic cult for Iranian regime was PM of the Jewish state. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and BenzamineNetanyaho were sincerely following the principle, Live and Die.