SANCTIONS, PAST AND PRESENT

 

By K P Paswan.

 We hear a lot about political, economic and even social sanctions, being used as lethal weapons against certain nations ruled by belligerents’ autocrats or even democratically elected government. This is the age of globalization; no country is completely self-sufficient. A few countries produce oil and natural gas which is essential for the entire world. US still imports fertilizers from Russia despite of sanctions. A small Qatar is being ruled by an autocrat who thinks himself above the mightiest political figure of this plant and the reason is that Qatar has lot of oil and natural gas. A few countries are known for manufacturing drugs necessary for survival for the human race. These drugs are being sold to all the countries. Previously international trade was being regularized by UNCTADE which has been replaced by the famous or infamous WTO. It is difficult to regularize international trade as the money launderers and smugglers have devised way and means to avoid these regulations.

There is no centralized to monitor genuine sanctions. Both N Korea and Myanmar are under house arrest owing to sanctions, while Myanmar is crying loudly, N korea is being supported covertly by China, Russia and Iran. India was sanctioned when the late PM Indira Gandhi conducted nuclear test but sanctions imposed upon India was symbolic. India is not an aggressive state but determined to protect its sovereignty from a greedy rogue neighbor and an overambitious China. With an open democracy Indian economy is witnessing sustained growth despite of sanctions and many ups and down.

  It is difficult say when and who initiated Sanctions but from certain historical facts it appears Sanctions were imposed by certain countries upon their opponents.

 Let us consider the fate of  Athens, the capital of modern Greek 2400 years ago. It decreed trade embargo on neighboring Megara, but the ensuing 27 years struggle left Athenians humiliated and Megara’s ally Corinth, triumphant, this is found in the history of Greek, that may be the first instance of sanctions failing, but there are plenty of more recent cases In the 20^th Century, they were used ever more often, especially by American Presidents.  Japan was sanctioned by Franklin Roosevelt in 1940, Eisenhower smacked them on Great Britain to end the Suez venture. Jimmy Carter punished the Soviet Union in 1980 with a wheat embargo and an Olympic boycott. Ronald Regan imposed them in protest at Martial law in Poland

 Congress in US too came to see sanctions as an easy cheap way of expression. In 1996 for example Belize, Colombia, Italy Mexico, Panama and Venezuela were all under American embargo beastliness to Whales or Dolphins’. In the next five years US imposed 85 new sanctions on foreign states

Sanctions may feel better than nothing, they are less feeble than scolding an Ambassador than sending in the marines. They provide a fission of moral satisfaction. And some times they work --- ending Britain’s Suez foray, for example.

Spotting the failure is easier, The League of Nation’s sanctions did not protect Abyssinia against Italy. The UN did not do better with Saddam Hussein Harsh regimes are still working in Iraq under American embargo. Never mind Myanmar and Sudan and never mind Cuba sanctioned in 1962. Regime change may not necessarily end of sanctions but behavior change may suffice the morality of punishing poor people who live in a boycotted autocracy is dubious. It makes the regime more popular or powerful. Saddam Hussain ensured that sanctions hurt chiefly the innocents. Security provides an excuse for rationing, permits and licenses creating corruptions, favoritism   and a black market which the regime can control. Floridian’s complaints were added to the more familiar ones of American farmers and business man. Whose markets shrink with every wheat embargo or investment boycott. Sanctions in US alone cost near nearly 15 billion dollars and they affected 200000 workers. No wonder that sanctions especially unilaterally imposed ones like America’s ban on trade with Cuba, cause frictions among the allies.

 Sanctions may have other results too. Armed embargo turned South Africa into a huge maker, then exporter of guns and encouraged Pakistan to go nuclear. In Haiti the misery the caused in 1990 washed thousands of refugees up on America’s coast. Sanctions are not necessarily futile They may have some value simply in expressing condemnation. But they work best when clearly defined and with an achievable end. If that is not achieved, as in 1990 when the UNO ordered Iraq, in vain to withdraw from Kuwait than it can at least be argued that using force is justified. It helps too, if a mechanism for ending sanctions is made clear at the outset.; they are easier to impose than to lift, and the sanctioned regime is   unlikely to make even small concessions if these are not greeted with some easing of the boycott. Moreover, after years of ritual blacklisting fatigues set among the boycotters. If they are to work, sanctions must be imposed by as many countries as possible.

The fashion is now for SMART sanctions which try to isolate and hurt the regime and its cronies, not the innocents But the people sanctioned must mind. One other problem arises from the new urge  to isolate odious leaders. Such people already tend to be remote from reality. They are surrounded by yes men  and often ignorant of   other countries Increasing their isolation may be dangerous, It is not farfetched  to argue that  the nastiest  wars of the 29^th century could have been averted  had the aggressor known what would be followed If the part of the blame for two WW, Korean, Falkland and the Gulf wars, lay with the failures of others  to convey the  appropriate message , part also lay with  the isolation and ignorance  on which the aggressors  based their misjudgments.  Arguably offending nations should be brought to closer reality, not driven deeper into   the realm of ghastly fantasy. History holds lesion for the sanctioners as well as the sanctioned.

 FINAL THOUGHT. At present Iran is fearing worst kind of sanctions. Iran’s economy is based upon oil and natural with less manufacturing activities in other fields Iran may face sanctions as this oil rich country is bent upon acquiring Nukes at all cost. It does not fear existential threat but the overambitions of a few religious leaders may put entire Iran under house arrest. Worst fear is that US and its allies may consider a variety of alternative options from cyber-attacks disabling Iranian infrastructures to massive sanctions on third parties doing business with Iran.

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY.

 

By K P Paswan

 What is so special of foreign policy of India? Is Narendra Modi different from the PM of UK or the Chancellor of Germany or the PM of Japan. We will try to find a possible answer.

 Narendra Modi is neither an angel or devil. He is an elected PM of an open democracy. Indian foreign policy also demonstrates economic development.

 Modi is not the last man standing but certainly he is the last of the Mohican. No political figures in power is above criticism and Modi is not an exception.   Change of guard may shape Indian Foreign Policy. New global order is not understood by politicians in the opposition camp. With Caste Census, apartheid is now official in India. India is the only country in the world which survives on the caste-oriented politics. Modi is a popular political figure and to dislodge him from power, the opposition has formed a platform popularly known as I.N.D, I, A. A closer look at this strange platform with strange name reveal that almost every member is old jail bird and old sinner. Some are outside of jail while a good number of politicians are standing in Q to enter jail with smile on his face. NDA led by NarendraModi is also not above board but at least Modi is there to control them. 

There was a minister in the cabinet of Modi named Arun Jetli. He was an excellent English speaker; his honesty was unquestionable but he used to shield corrupt politicians belonging to the Grand Old Party. He was more popular amongst the Modi’s haters than in NDA. If Modi is to be replaced, he must be replaced by a seasoned politician and certainly not by a jail bird belonging to INDIA.

AGE OF HUMILIATIONS. ESSENCE OF INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY

Indian foreign policy has been drafted  as per prevailing international politics. At the time of independence, India was an underdeveloped country  Education was the privelege of a few Indians. Faster Dulles , the Secretary of State of US had a dig at India when he declared that countries which don’t support US are enemies of US. USSR supported India when the first PM introduced Five year plans, Soviet Unions helped India to establish heavy industries but at what cost? Mixed economy was the cornerstone of five-year plans, but it was not properly evaluated or tested. Steels mills were established like Bhilai, Bokaro etc all of them have become sick as new technology was not available in the Soviet Union. Stock market was not in operation and except Tata and Birla no private industries flourished, however small manufacturing units continued to flourish.

 DEVELOPMENT. Pt Nehru described new manufacturing units as new Temples of India, But Mixed economy was total failure. And by 1980 all the manufacturing and public undertaking except Indian Oil Corporation and Steel Authority of India,  were declared as sick. It was only after opening of Indian economy that gradually foreign investment starting pouring into India but not like China wher American investment reached at its zenith.

  Coming to Indian Foreign Policy,a former officer of Indian foreign service is holding the post of Foreign Minister of India. As expected, an experience hand in foreign affairs is in a position to understand the complex diplomacy which has emerged along with new global order. US is still a super power with capacity to explore the outer space  and introduce technology beneficial and destructive to the human race. As an economic power, China has reduced the hegemony of the US  and it is itself trying to expand its undefined political influence. India had cultural relations with China since the dawn of civilization but in modern times cultural relations is no more a binding force. China has humiliated India in 1962 and is still  trying to dictate politics of India. China is funding anti Indian elements who foment troubles for financial gains.  But China  is not in a position to humiliate India. With increase in foreign investment India has  achieved  sustained economic growth. Contrary to popular belief China has not grabbed Indian territory either in Galvan valley or somewhere else. Under such circumstance’s diplomacy may play an important role in averting trouble with China. Shadow diplomacy is undergoing between China and India, US has replaced China as the largest trading partner

  India has border disputes with China and Pakistan. India fought several war with Pakistan, After independence Indian foreign policy was shaped by Pt Nehru who was also the Foreign Minister  of India.  He did not allow Cold War to cloud the Indian politics. Being an underdeveloped country India had no effective role to play between two super powers , India advocated a policy of non-alignment  while Pakistan signed the Bagdad pact under which CEATO a defence organization was formed, it means Pakistan was protected by US. However in the case of China, India faced uncertain diplomacy. While India recognized Chinese suzerainty over Tibet, China was not allowed to draw Line of Control as per its own plan. The result was Indo China war in 1962 in which India lost a large swath in Tibet and in north frontier Agency. So, It was an era of Cold war in which brilliant  diplomats, both foreign and Indian like Else worth bunker Dean Rusk(Secretary of State  of US. S  Nagarkety, Y Gundevia  from India  were playing important roles. But humiliations of India did not end.

With opening of economy after 1990 Indian Foreign Policy was molded as per new  changing dynamics of diplomacy between India and other developed nations. Collapse of USSR mean not only the collapse of  Non Alignment  but also the end of closed economy  and in its place emerging economy in India started influencing foreign policy.

 ECONOMY. Whether Narendra Modi survives the next election or not but he is responsible for the present state of emerging economy, For a country like India beset with caste and creed, he realised that India could not generate a strong voice without an emerging economy. True the economic has returned to growth,  but a big part of it consists of restocking  after a savage down turn  that has left inventeries depleted but for that the brutal virus is accountable. In no point  over the coming decades  will the defecit be below  3-5% of GDP  This is itself a reflection of the economic policy which has shaped foreign policy.   The former Governor of RBI made a mess of Indian banking system. At present Indian banking system is highly praised by World Bank.

If N Modi is replaced than his successor  will inherit a strong economy if at the behest of incompetent economist, he may have the choice of bringing down the defecit to  to a sustainable  which means no more than 3% og GDP.. Taxation has to be increased and all kinds of Freebies are to be removed, No government dared to implement this deadly plan.

So there are indications that India may see humiliation if any change in economic policy pirsued by Modi is initiated, as it will badly impact  a rational foreign policy.

 Final Thought. A sustained growth has influenced foreign policy of India. The days of humiliations are over. Let us hope it will continue.

SCIENCE AND HINDU SCRIPTURES.

 

By K P PASWAN.

This article is confined to Hindus and their holy scriptures in India with greater emphasis on Hindu festivals.

Indian civilization is very ancient and Indian society is highly polarized. Hindu as we know today is the religion of the majority and like Israel Hindus with different names  are the original inhabitants in India and in case of ethnic cleansing in other countries where Hindus have migrated for different purposes, Hindus will have to return to India. There is no way out. Hinduism is a way of life and there is no centralized authority to control and issue guidance for regularization of social customs of Hindus. Like other respected religions no body introduced Hinduism, however certain learned persons devoted their times to understand the nature of universe and the reasons for the presence of universe are given in different scriptures. Their findings are found in Upanishads which have inspired the leading minds of the world irrespective of their religion. Popularly known as Vedic or Santana religion, we find various sects like Shaivism, followers of which worship Lord Shiv, than we have Vaishnavism who worship Lord Vishnu. There are numerous subsects, but they are bounded by a common thread. In South India we find different type of customs and traditions. Except in Kerala where Hindus are most probably not in majority all other states in South India are dominated by Hindus

Kali puja is a festival and a famous temple dedicated to Goddess Kali in Kolkata in West Bengal. Goddess Kali has tremendous power of destruction and reconstruction. Is there any scientific basis for worshipping a deity known for destructive power? ( true Story) In 1998 a nuclear physicist from India was given an audience by Stephen Hawking, the legendary Cosmologist of the present time.  He was wheeled Chaired from an early age as he suffered from Motor Neuron Disease. The doctors in London gave him only three to five years but he died after attaining 74 years of age. Now coming to conversation between the Indian Nuclear Physicist, the Indian scientist asked Hawking if goddess represent the Blackhole which is known for deadly destructive power. Hawking was not taken aback. After sometimes he remarked that Hindu long ago conceived this idea. The conversation was published in leading journals in UK. The Indian scientist after three days boarded a Tristar British airway, came to Kolkata with his family, purchased a particular type of flowers in large quantity and submitted to the Deity in the famous Kali temple in Kolkata. This Indian Physicist in his early forty studied with me in High School. We are not friends, he simply recognized me in an embassy and recognized by face. He narrowly missed F.R.S If he becomes a F.R.S. than he may be second Indian to become F.R.S at a young age after J H Bhabha who become FRS at an age of 35 or 38 Dirac was the youngest F R S (Fellow of the Royal Society).

In fact, major Hindu festival speak for natural forces. My mentor and not teacher in US happen to be a Nobel laureate in Physics, a devout Quaker he has excellent knowledge of Upanishad. Another Nobel in Physics who happens to be a friend of my mentor is also a borne again Christian with wonderful knowledge of holy Vedas. Nearly three years ago I heard him saying in a seminar that “The verses of Rigveda are the flows of time”. As per Stephen Hawking cosmological time is bounded in the past. For cosmological time there is no difference between past and future.  We remember Robert Oppenheimer for his knowledge of holy Geeta. He was father of American atom bomb. But we forget t Werner Heisenberg, His Uncertainty Principles removes the presence of an omnipotent and omniscient deity. He was awarded Nobel in physics for his theory, He  avoided his assassination as he was trying to manufacture atom bomb for Hitler. He was awarded Nobel in physics. Uncertainty principles convulsed Albert Einstein who reluctantly accepted it. But why we remember Heisenberg because of his profound knowledge of holy scriptures of the Hindus, he was trying to know the nature of cosmological time . He tells us that entire Buddhism is based upon a particular Upanishad, Reasons are obvious. Buddhism is the only religion of the world which postulates Death with time in time. This is not Mind boggling. In Buddhism man dies along with his Soul but dead Soul again is reborn. This is also message of the GEETA. In fact it is this nature of time that certain particular physicists contemplates a Deity  with time in different dimension and this concept does not violate the theory of Relativity.

ATEISM AND THE VEDAS

 We all know about S Chandrashekar the Nobel laureate in Physics. He narrowly missed Black Hole  S Chandrashekar‘s theory postulates that beyond certain point a massive star shrinks to zero. His theory was vehemently opposed by Einstein. Any way Chandra shaker was a South Indian Brahmin, a cast much hated in South India just Paswan is the most hated caste in Hindi belt. Chandrasekhar used to call himself a Nastic (Atheist) Hindu but he observed rigorous Vedic  rituals in US and when he died his last rites were performed as per rigorous Hindu rituals. Why he called himself an Atheist Hindu is beyond the scope of this blog.

 COSMIC DANCE OF LORD SHIVA. This is ridiculed by a section or group of incompetent intellectuals. But we have Carlo Rivoli, the most famous Nuclear physicist of France with excellent knowledge of every Veda and the Upanishads. Every year he is missing Nobel in Physics. In the book titled ‘’ The ORDER of Time “he declares The things of the world interweaves dances made no difference rhythms. If the world is held by a dancing Shiva, then there must be ten thousand such dancing Shivas, like the dancing figures painted in the holy scriptures of the Hindus. Echoing the understanding of my mentor Carlo Rivoli declares it is the hymn of Vedas that is itself the flowering of time.

 Once I met a South Indian Brahmin in Texas, out of curiosity pertaining to creation myth and the Vedas, I asked him a particular question. He remained silent and left, his behavior was very friendly. As stated earlier Paswan is the most hated Dalit in the Hindi belt, so I did not expect positive response. After three months we met again in a park. He recognized and called me.  He told me that the Holy Vedas was silent about creation, I already knew it but he confirmed the creation myth.  Once again I had an opportunity to listen to the best brains in a seminar attended by some philosophers with excellent knowledge of physics and some body mentioned the term Manifestation which is the fundamental of Upanishad in other words manifestation is the central theme and not the creation.

 FINAL THOUGHT. If manifestation is central theme of the Universe than what is the Free Will?  ( He was playing and laughing in the morning but he is not seen in the evening , it is because nobody can fight TIME-- SWETASWATRA) than free will has no relevance or is an illusion simply because Predestation is certain.

CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER.

BY K P PASWAN.

 Israel and Hamas are facing each other. Israel is telling the Hamas ‘’ End of Israel means the death of a civilization and the end of Hamas means death of terror’ ’. Survey finds  that an overwhelming  majority of Israeli Jews and  and a sizeable  majority of Palestinians (Hamas excluded) want their own states. Israel is already a sovereign country and will go to any extent to protect its sovereignty. But as one peace plan  after another  has foundered , the voice  calling  for the two peoples  to live as equal citizens  in one country is  slowly multiplying. Once Golda Mair declared that  there was no such thing as the Palestinian people,  In the light of her statements  there are several political figures who want a primer  on de-legitimizing Israel. But that is virtually impossible. The reasons are blunt. Most of the Islamic nations don’t like Palestinians, they  oppose Israel on the ground of religion

 We often hear that WW3 is knocking the door of human race. There are prophets of doom found in every corner of this planet who predict WW3. They predicted WW3 when the Ukraine crisis erupted, now they are predicting world war in the context of tension in Palestine where Israel is fighting the Soldiers of God.

We are witnessing a new global order and multi bio polar politics. Nearly one hundred years ago there were few industrialized countries and more than half of the world was being ruled by European countries. With the collapse of colonial powers, a large number of countries started taking measures for the development of their countries. There were two super powers engaged in what is known as Cold war. It was not a real war being fought with deadly weapons but it was a psychological war. USSR was known as the Iron curtain from which no information escaped.  There were only two Communists empires Soviet Unions and China, both of them desired to expand Communism by force.  It was USSR and certainly not China which was feared and hated by west but the world was hypnotized by Soviet Union ‘s success in exploring the outer space. It appeared that USSR was going to rule over the world. Its extraordinary success in specs exploration virtually eclipsed the failure of the Communist empire in other fronts namely agriculture and pharma. It also appeared that Cold war was not gong to end. But we cannot hide our failures forever. USSR was an Iron Curtain and not the Black hole from which nothing can escape.  Economic recession and failure to improve the agriculture with new technology  did not augur well for the Communist nation.

NO WORLD WAR. There is no point in discussing the collapse of Communism both in Soviet Union and China.  If we look over the Cold war era , we know we escaped devastation . At the time of Cuban crisis  we were really on a hair trigger, and it was only through the responsibility  and good sense of Kennedy and Khrushchev that we avoided catastrophe The nuclear power of the two Superpowers  had the explosive  equivalent of  one of the  U.S air force ‘s daisy  cutter bombs  for each inhabitant  of the US and Europe . Utter devastation would have resulted, had this all had gone off. The threat abated at the end of the Cold War, but looking a century ahead , we cannot  expect the present  political assignments to stay constant. Within the next hundred years , since nuclear  weapon cannot be  dis invented , there is quite expectation that there will be another stand off as fearsome as the Cold war era , perhaps involving more participants  than just two  and therefore more  unstable. Even if we consider the nuclear threat alone, than there is a severe chance , perhaps 50 percent  chance of some catastrophic setback to civilization. Parallels with Cold war is misleading. Modern Russia  no  longer  has an ideology to export. Communism is dead  and Putin has no intention to revive it.  Moscow glistens  with the bright lights of  of consumerism  and Russian companies  continue to  queue  up to list  their shares  on the London Stock Exchange

 These are extreme pessimism, and the survival of civilization depends upon optimism. There are many countries with nukes. A bankrupt Pakistan and a starving N Korea boast of nukes.  Ayatollah Ali Khamenei of IRAN wants Nukes at any cost but for what and for whom? Iran is one of the richest countries of the world, it is an earthquake prone country and is surrounded by Sunnis majority Islamic states. The rulers of archly and conservative Saudi Arabia  in particular have long viewed Iran  as a dangerous rival.

 Egyptians have never forgiven  Iran’s revolutionary leaders for naming a  Tehran street  after one of the assassins of  peace making president Anwar Sadat.

 Iran is openly financing the Sunni dominated Hezbollah, brandishing a Kalashnikov , and speaking in his  fluent classic Arabic  in a Friday sermon  put the matter more bluntly.  Blasting the critics of Hizbullah as  Crilinging hirelings of  the great SATAN that is US he said that Iranian  funded Hizbullah had made the group so loved that  Muslims everywhere  felt , they have participated in it. This claim is not far-fetched. In far off Brunei, the Sultan issued order for  the obligatory performance of special prayer  for the victory of the Hamas. So all over the world certain groups of people support terror based organization. These people also raise slogan against US. The question is whether US alone is responsible for political tension in different parts of of the world? It is doubt full if without US, peace will prevail in the world. In the past century Soviet Union has disappeared and appeared  without  providing solutions to different problems, Putin may be our man of honors but he certainly  cannot be allowed to become the living manifestation of destiny ,target being the entire world, In the same manner China cannot expect to dictate the international politics simply because no country trusts China.  US never played the role of an international policeman. Certain autocrats in Africa and Central Asia have one political ambition and that is how to remain in power. No democracy can succeed in these countries.

With spread of modern system of communication, globalization is the only way to keep the world together but every country has to be very careful of greedy politicians , who want political power at all cost even if it means genocide or horrendous killing of  innocent citizens. War on local issues must not be allowed to cloud the entire planet. There must be check and balance  otherwise Globalization may become a potential weapon of  destruction.