THE US AND THE MULTIPLAR SYSTEM

 

By K P Paswan.

The Global economy is multipolar and so too is global politics. The US confronts a new economic power as well as new political ideologies. So, what is the role of the US in new political order? There are two economically weak nations with Nukes and these two countries namely Pakistan and N Korea have greatly contributed to the growth of multipolar world. Pakistan, virtually on the brink of bankruptcy glorifies, religious based terrorism and N Korea is behaving like a Super Power while common people suffer from starvation. Iran Why Iran cannot have nukes if a bankrupt Pakistan can? American diplomats ably exploit such doubts Any country should have the right to obtain nuclear technology or even nuclear arms for deterrence, especially if is being threatened by another nuclear technology But we witness that the US still excels in the multipolar world even if its political and economic position has diminished. The US pioneered the brave new world of information technology is a Mac or an I Phone designed in the US, but manufactured in China, using materials and parts drawn from many places, an American product?

Advanced industrial countries are obsessed with phenomenon of decline. Both the US and Europe recurrently justify the necessity of political and institutional innovations and activism The US politicians always present themselves as  a response to the threat of decline. The reality of decline is however the official published view of the US intelligence community. The 2008 national intelligence community report, entitled GLOBAL TREND2025, made this prediction: The US will remain the single most powerful country but will be less dominant. Its 2012 successor, GLOBAL TREND2030 was more modest about American prospective: ‘’ No country whether US, China or any other country will be a hegemonic power. The empowerment of individuals and diffusion of power among states and from states to informal networks will have a dramatic impact, largely reversing the historic rise of the West since 1750’’. Both reports focuses on the growth of powerful and international active  non state actors like businesses, tribes, religious organizations and  criminal networks.

Modern China as an Economic power is the product of golden handshake between Richard Nixon and Mao in Feb 1972. Mao received Nixon and Henry Kissinger, and after meeting, Richard Nixon declared that the world changed, Kissinger hated the economic prosperity and loved China so much so that Kissinger is like a God. Japan started declining and had to vacate its position as the largest economy in favor of China, Henry Kissinger, the author of Détente was a brilliant strategist but not a brilliant diplomat. Kissinger was not a match of Ellsworth bunker. But Kissinger was more successful than any other American diplomats as he gained prominence when the cold war was at its zenith.

China as an economic power has failed to disturb the balance of power, which is still in favor of the US. The Americans MNCs dominate the Chinese markets. We often hear Trade war between the US and the China, trade war is not a new concept in international trade. India has imposed Antidumping duties upon certain imports by China to India, the idea is to deter China from sending unwanted cheap goods to India. The US has restricted imports of Chinese stuffs which are not needed in the US. In fact Chinese consumer goods have flooded markets of every country of the world. The credit for this goes to Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger ,who hated the economic growth of Japan and were determined to replace Japan with China.

Religion has become ever more popular and politically and culturally influential around the globe The resurgence of religion means the recreation of differences among countries but unfortunately it promotes conflicts more than the hoped for mutual understanding It also means decline of secularism. In a way the US has become one actor among many on a crowded and increasingly violent global stage. It has promoted globalization.Post- Ukraine war gave rise to a new political order in which there are number contries are trying to aquire nukes which pose serious threats to the world, It is no secret that Pakistan not only glorify terror but also export its brand of terrors to different region like India. Likewise Korea regularly  launch missiles, threatening Japan and S Korea. These two countries are rogue nations and a threat to peace. Than we have South Africa, trying to become international policeman. This country has ordered the arrest of Putin and has dragged Israel to international court to face the charges of genocide, S Africa is widely known as a nation of corruption and a large number cases of HIV are found in South Africa. Such countries cannot be allowed to become the living manifestation of destiny, target being the entire human race,

Pakistan. Once closed allies Afghnistan is at logger is facing bankruptcy and patronizing terrorism. Pakistan cannot be bailed out of its recession for a variety of reasons. Organization of Muslims countries are unable to help financially as Pakistan cannot fulfill the conditions for receiving loan. Pakistan has to amend its political and economic structures to secure IMF package. So far Pakistan has sa far promised to introduce reforms but this nation cannot be trusted because of Chinese interference. China and Pakistan are closely bound by certain conditions for the development of Gwadar as port for easy transportation of oil and gas from Iran. Unfortunately there is no love lost between Iran and Pakistan as is seen recently missiles by both sides

 Under such confusions the US still commands respects. Pakistan has been an ally of the US for a long time. The US is in a position to bail out Pakistan, but Pakistan has to change its old political ideology ased upon religious strictures. Afghanistan and Pakistan are at logger heads with each other. Pakistan to some extent is responsible for the belligerence of Taliban,

CONCLUSION. There is no doubt that in the multipolar system , the US has a different role to play, it is a role quite different from the role played before the Ukraine crisis.It is also noticed that the US is trying to adjust as per new global order. This is a much appreciatable stand.

 

TERROR VERSUS TERROR.

 

By K P Paswan.

 Iran regularly hurls rocket to Pakistan, but this time Iran sent missiles inside Pakistan destroying a terror out fit and killing a few civilians. But Pakistan does not give real causality.  Pakistan thought that it was  humiliation and retaliated by missiles inside Iran killing at least nine people. So what is common and uncommon. Both are Islamic nations but with different religious ideology. Pakistan is a self-proclaimed theocratic state and the Sunnis Muslims are in majority. Economically Pakistan is an undeclared bankrupt country, searching for a money lender to borrow more and more money. Iran on the other hand is super rich and a country wherein the Shias are in majority. Pakistan is not an oil producing country but Iran is perhaps is a country with the largest deposit of oil and natural gas.

 Both Iran and Pakistan glorify terror but there is difference. Iran has no poisonous Wahhabi religious ideology to export; this country is funding terror groups which are fighting Israel. But what a surprise, The terror outfits like the Hamas and Hizballah are dominated by the Sunnis and these terror outfits are secretly hated by the Sunnis majority Islamic states. Pakistan, on the other hand thrive on terror and in doing so, it itself became victim of terror. Pakistan is funding stateless terrorists to foment troubles in India and these terrorists are giving night marish sleep to Indian security personals.

Pakistan has Nukes. Des it make Pakistan a strong nation? The answer is big no. Some of the conventional weapons are more devastating than Nukes. Before nuclear talks between the US and Iran in Doha last year, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sent a message to Biden, the president of the US. The Ayatollah asked the mighty president that a bankrupt and beggar like Pakistan and N Korea have been allowed NUKES but the same is being denied to Iran, why? And the American president still has not responded. In the popular mind, attempts to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions also mesh neatly  with the narrative of Western powers holding back Muslims. Why Iran cannot have nukes if Pakistan can?. The rulers of archly Sunni and conservative Saudi Arabia in particular, have long viewed Iran as a dangerous rival. In the 1990s they blamed Iran for stirring unrest among the kingdom’s largest Shia minority and in response helped bankroll Saddam Hussein’s war against the Islamic Republic of Iran. During the recent Israel Hamas war, some Saudi youths made the mistake of sticking the poster of M Nasrullah, the chief of Hezbollah on their windscreens, Saudi police promptly arrested them

American’s invasion of Iraq produced a cascade of responses that bolstered the resistant front in Iran. The intrusion threatened to drive a wedge between Iran and Saudi Arabia It empowered the long – long  disenfranchised Shia majority , a natural bridgehead for Iranian influence. And obviously removed Saddam Hussain’s army, the main military obstacle to the projection   of that influence  farther afield. Iran, unable to bear the Saudi’s hegemony in the Islamic world funded the Houthi radicals in Yemen to revolt against the Sunni President Mr Hadis and as a result the Sunni president was deposed and the Houthis launched attack upon Saudi Arabia.

Few Muslims elsewhere are aware that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, aside from being supreme leader of the Iranian revolution  and running the administration of the country  also styles himself as  Leader of the Islamic world . But this is not acceptable to the Sunni dominated countries.. It is also clear that  a powerful sector ofv  Iranian opinion is  so fundamentally  anti US that it will never change. Islamic countries may be ble to convince the Biden administration that  the best way to ease the tension between a Shia Iran and a Sunni Pakistan is  that the US  itself to be more flexible

So Pakistan’s possession of Nukes is not in the interest of Pakistan and if tension between Pakistan and Iran escalates, Iran may launch pre—empties strike to destroy the nuclear reactors of Pakistan.

Pakistan as a theocratic state tried to lead the Islamic nations, the same dream is also seen by Turkey and both of these Islamic are not reach. Turkey under Erdogan succeeded in reducing poverty but Pakistan’s mismanagement of economy led economic recession which has become economic recession forever. National administration in Pakistan is being controlled by the army. The army has utterly failed to control the terrorists. While in the case of India, Pak army is succeeding in fomenting troubles in J&K  the {ak army cannot match Iranian resistance. It may be noted that Kul Bhushan Jadhav, an Indian citizen being accused of Indian spy was captured by the Iranians and handed over to Pakistan, But this religious bond is going to be a thing of the past. Iran has refused to bail out Pakistan from economic recession., and is no more an ally of Pakistan. Iran is also encouraging the Baloch separatists to cause anarchy in Pakistan. So everything is not well between Iran and Pakistan

 Iran is an overambitious nation. Despite of being ruled by lunatics and religious fanatics, Iran is a modern and developed nation. Progress made by the late King are also the most inspiring achievement of Iran. Restricted freedom of speech with widespread education among women are achievements, not seen in other Islamic nations. The Arab spring failed to make inroads in Iran. And a super rich Iran is justifying to assert its influence beyond its border.

 Conclusion. It is time for the two countries to sort out their differences. China is the trusted ally of Pakistan while the US indirectly is helping Pakistan, but in case of even a small war, Pakistan will suffer badly, neither China nor the US will go against Iran. Iran is causing troubles in Gaza and in the Red sea and no Islamic country would come to the rescue of a beleaguered and bankrupt Pakistan. For India it is an opportunity to explore the possibility of befriending Iran. India is keeping the Taliban in good humor. In the long run, friendship with Iran is going to play an important in the diplomacy of the subcontinent. Pakistan cannot be a friend of India, the reasons are obvious. China has virtually  forced Pakistan to toe its lines. In the course of time, it is possible that Iran may follow the foreign policy of India.