THE US AND THE MULTIPLAR SYSTEM

 

By K P Paswan.

The Global economy is multipolar and so too is global politics. The US confronts a new economic power as well as new political ideologies. So, what is the role of the US in new political order? There are two economically weak nations with Nukes and these two countries namely Pakistan and N Korea have greatly contributed to the growth of multipolar world. Pakistan, virtually on the brink of bankruptcy glorifies, religious based terrorism and N Korea is behaving like a Super Power while common people suffer from starvation. Iran Why Iran cannot have nukes if a bankrupt Pakistan can? American diplomats ably exploit such doubts Any country should have the right to obtain nuclear technology or even nuclear arms for deterrence, especially if is being threatened by another nuclear technology But we witness that the US still excels in the multipolar world even if its political and economic position has diminished. The US pioneered the brave new world of information technology is a Mac or an I Phone designed in the US, but manufactured in China, using materials and parts drawn from many places, an American product?

Advanced industrial countries are obsessed with phenomenon of decline. Both the US and Europe recurrently justify the necessity of political and institutional innovations and activism The US politicians always present themselves as  a response to the threat of decline. The reality of decline is however the official published view of the US intelligence community. The 2008 national intelligence community report, entitled GLOBAL TREND2025, made this prediction: The US will remain the single most powerful country but will be less dominant. Its 2012 successor, GLOBAL TREND2030 was more modest about American prospective: ‘’ No country whether US, China or any other country will be a hegemonic power. The empowerment of individuals and diffusion of power among states and from states to informal networks will have a dramatic impact, largely reversing the historic rise of the West since 1750’’. Both reports focuses on the growth of powerful and international active  non state actors like businesses, tribes, religious organizations and  criminal networks.

Modern China as an Economic power is the product of golden handshake between Richard Nixon and Mao in Feb 1972. Mao received Nixon and Henry Kissinger, and after meeting, Richard Nixon declared that the world changed, Kissinger hated the economic prosperity and loved China so much so that Kissinger is like a God. Japan started declining and had to vacate its position as the largest economy in favor of China, Henry Kissinger, the author of Détente was a brilliant strategist but not a brilliant diplomat. Kissinger was not a match of Ellsworth bunker. But Kissinger was more successful than any other American diplomats as he gained prominence when the cold war was at its zenith.

China as an economic power has failed to disturb the balance of power, which is still in favor of the US. The Americans MNCs dominate the Chinese markets. We often hear Trade war between the US and the China, trade war is not a new concept in international trade. India has imposed Antidumping duties upon certain imports by China to India, the idea is to deter China from sending unwanted cheap goods to India. The US has restricted imports of Chinese stuffs which are not needed in the US. In fact Chinese consumer goods have flooded markets of every country of the world. The credit for this goes to Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger ,who hated the economic growth of Japan and were determined to replace Japan with China.

Religion has become ever more popular and politically and culturally influential around the globe The resurgence of religion means the recreation of differences among countries but unfortunately it promotes conflicts more than the hoped for mutual understanding It also means decline of secularism. In a way the US has become one actor among many on a crowded and increasingly violent global stage. It has promoted globalization.Post- Ukraine war gave rise to a new political order in which there are number contries are trying to aquire nukes which pose serious threats to the world, It is no secret that Pakistan not only glorify terror but also export its brand of terrors to different region like India. Likewise Korea regularly  launch missiles, threatening Japan and S Korea. These two countries are rogue nations and a threat to peace. Than we have South Africa, trying to become international policeman. This country has ordered the arrest of Putin and has dragged Israel to international court to face the charges of genocide, S Africa is widely known as a nation of corruption and a large number cases of HIV are found in South Africa. Such countries cannot be allowed to become the living manifestation of destiny, target being the entire human race,

Pakistan. Once closed allies Afghnistan is at logger is facing bankruptcy and patronizing terrorism. Pakistan cannot be bailed out of its recession for a variety of reasons. Organization of Muslims countries are unable to help financially as Pakistan cannot fulfill the conditions for receiving loan. Pakistan has to amend its political and economic structures to secure IMF package. So far Pakistan has sa far promised to introduce reforms but this nation cannot be trusted because of Chinese interference. China and Pakistan are closely bound by certain conditions for the development of Gwadar as port for easy transportation of oil and gas from Iran. Unfortunately there is no love lost between Iran and Pakistan as is seen recently missiles by both sides

 Under such confusions the US still commands respects. Pakistan has been an ally of the US for a long time. The US is in a position to bail out Pakistan, but Pakistan has to change its old political ideology ased upon religious strictures. Afghanistan and Pakistan are at logger heads with each other. Pakistan to some extent is responsible for the belligerence of Taliban,

CONCLUSION. There is no doubt that in the multipolar system , the US has a different role to play, it is a role quite different from the role played before the Ukraine crisis.It is also noticed that the US is trying to adjust as per new global order. This is a much appreciatable stand.

 

TERROR VERSUS TERROR.

 

By K P Paswan.

 Iran regularly hurls rocket to Pakistan, but this time Iran sent missiles inside Pakistan destroying a terror out fit and killing a few civilians. But Pakistan does not give real causality.  Pakistan thought that it was  humiliation and retaliated by missiles inside Iran killing at least nine people. So what is common and uncommon. Both are Islamic nations but with different religious ideology. Pakistan is a self-proclaimed theocratic state and the Sunnis Muslims are in majority. Economically Pakistan is an undeclared bankrupt country, searching for a money lender to borrow more and more money. Iran on the other hand is super rich and a country wherein the Shias are in majority. Pakistan is not an oil producing country but Iran is perhaps is a country with the largest deposit of oil and natural gas.

 Both Iran and Pakistan glorify terror but there is difference. Iran has no poisonous Wahhabi religious ideology to export; this country is funding terror groups which are fighting Israel. But what a surprise, The terror outfits like the Hamas and Hizballah are dominated by the Sunnis and these terror outfits are secretly hated by the Sunnis majority Islamic states. Pakistan, on the other hand thrive on terror and in doing so, it itself became victim of terror. Pakistan is funding stateless terrorists to foment troubles in India and these terrorists are giving night marish sleep to Indian security personals.

Pakistan has Nukes. Des it make Pakistan a strong nation? The answer is big no. Some of the conventional weapons are more devastating than Nukes. Before nuclear talks between the US and Iran in Doha last year, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sent a message to Biden, the president of the US. The Ayatollah asked the mighty president that a bankrupt and beggar like Pakistan and N Korea have been allowed NUKES but the same is being denied to Iran, why? And the American president still has not responded. In the popular mind, attempts to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions also mesh neatly  with the narrative of Western powers holding back Muslims. Why Iran cannot have nukes if Pakistan can?. The rulers of archly Sunni and conservative Saudi Arabia in particular, have long viewed Iran as a dangerous rival. In the 1990s they blamed Iran for stirring unrest among the kingdom’s largest Shia minority and in response helped bankroll Saddam Hussein’s war against the Islamic Republic of Iran. During the recent Israel Hamas war, some Saudi youths made the mistake of sticking the poster of M Nasrullah, the chief of Hezbollah on their windscreens, Saudi police promptly arrested them

American’s invasion of Iraq produced a cascade of responses that bolstered the resistant front in Iran. The intrusion threatened to drive a wedge between Iran and Saudi Arabia It empowered the long – long  disenfranchised Shia majority , a natural bridgehead for Iranian influence. And obviously removed Saddam Hussain’s army, the main military obstacle to the projection   of that influence  farther afield. Iran, unable to bear the Saudi’s hegemony in the Islamic world funded the Houthi radicals in Yemen to revolt against the Sunni President Mr Hadis and as a result the Sunni president was deposed and the Houthis launched attack upon Saudi Arabia.

Few Muslims elsewhere are aware that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, aside from being supreme leader of the Iranian revolution  and running the administration of the country  also styles himself as  Leader of the Islamic world . But this is not acceptable to the Sunni dominated countries.. It is also clear that  a powerful sector ofv  Iranian opinion is  so fundamentally  anti US that it will never change. Islamic countries may be ble to convince the Biden administration that  the best way to ease the tension between a Shia Iran and a Sunni Pakistan is  that the US  itself to be more flexible

So Pakistan’s possession of Nukes is not in the interest of Pakistan and if tension between Pakistan and Iran escalates, Iran may launch pre—empties strike to destroy the nuclear reactors of Pakistan.

Pakistan as a theocratic state tried to lead the Islamic nations, the same dream is also seen by Turkey and both of these Islamic are not reach. Turkey under Erdogan succeeded in reducing poverty but Pakistan’s mismanagement of economy led economic recession which has become economic recession forever. National administration in Pakistan is being controlled by the army. The army has utterly failed to control the terrorists. While in the case of India, Pak army is succeeding in fomenting troubles in J&K  the {ak army cannot match Iranian resistance. It may be noted that Kul Bhushan Jadhav, an Indian citizen being accused of Indian spy was captured by the Iranians and handed over to Pakistan, But this religious bond is going to be a thing of the past. Iran has refused to bail out Pakistan from economic recession., and is no more an ally of Pakistan. Iran is also encouraging the Baloch separatists to cause anarchy in Pakistan. So everything is not well between Iran and Pakistan

 Iran is an overambitious nation. Despite of being ruled by lunatics and religious fanatics, Iran is a modern and developed nation. Progress made by the late King are also the most inspiring achievement of Iran. Restricted freedom of speech with widespread education among women are achievements, not seen in other Islamic nations. The Arab spring failed to make inroads in Iran. And a super rich Iran is justifying to assert its influence beyond its border.

 Conclusion. It is time for the two countries to sort out their differences. China is the trusted ally of Pakistan while the US indirectly is helping Pakistan, but in case of even a small war, Pakistan will suffer badly, neither China nor the US will go against Iran. Iran is causing troubles in Gaza and in the Red sea and no Islamic country would come to the rescue of a beleaguered and bankrupt Pakistan. For India it is an opportunity to explore the possibility of befriending Iran. India is keeping the Taliban in good humor. In the long run, friendship with Iran is going to play an important in the diplomacy of the subcontinent. Pakistan cannot be a friend of India, the reasons are obvious. China has virtually  forced Pakistan to toe its lines. In the course of time, it is possible that Iran may follow the foreign policy of India.

WAITING FOR SLAYERS.

By K P Paswan.

The parallel to the story of man-eating lions which in the past created fear psychosis must occurred to everyone. Man-eating lions, in distant past, stopped the rebuilding of Samaria in ancient Europe. If, we take into account the whole body of lion from the days of Assrian kings to the present era of war, it would exceed in tragedy, in savageness or in sheer insolent contempt for human race armed or unarmed white or black, the story of these brainless and fruitless wars fought in the middle east. But there is no evidence that the old inhabitants of Europe, or Assyria ever killed a man-eating lion. They looked to the king or Chief or some champion  to kill these man-eating lions. It was not the sport but the cardinal duty of kings and was in itself a title to be ruler of men. Theses cleared roads of beasts and robbers. Hercules the killer of lion, St George the Dragon slayer and all the rest owed to this their everlasting fame. When somebody called for the slaying of Putin, and dislodging of Modi the caller must have realized in no common way that it was not to have a hero and deliverer in the days when human race has become lord of the creation. To what a distance the story of man eating lions carries us back, and how impossible it becomes to account for the survival of human being against this kind of foe.

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There are two prominent political figures in this world who are much abused, one by international community while other by his own countrymen.  Putin is being abused by majority of the countries of the world. Call has been issued for his assassination. He is being called a war monger, a psychopath, a devil and what not? If we look over the Cold War era, we know, at the time of Cuban crisis, we escaped devastation. We were really on a hair trigger, and it was only through the responsibility and good sense of President Kennedy of the US and Nikita Khrushchev of USSR and their advisors that we avoided catastrophe. The threat obviously abated at the end of the cold war, but looking a century ahead , we can’t expect  the present  political assignment to stay constant. In the last century Soviet Union appeared and disappeared and there were two World Wars but human race survived and progressed. Human race is exploring the outer space and there is healthy competition to win the race. In the space exploration, there is no question of intense rivalry. So why there is a call for slaying of Putin?

 Modi on the other hand is being called a corrupt, an illiterate, incompetent and above all murderer of democracy. Call has been issued to dethrone Modi by all means. A former Indian diplomat and another a noted lawyer went to Pakistan and sought help to dislodge Modi. The opposition has created a platform I.N.D.I.A, which contains old sinners of all ages, some have spent their good times in jail while others are standing in Q to enter jail with a smile face. Modi is himself an honest politician, nearly three wears back in US, there was a Howdy Modi in which former president of US was present to witness the welcome being given to Modi by Indian diaspora. An obscure US magazine conducted a survey. Question was asked about four honest politicians in the world, names were to be given by participants, there was a Communist head of State, an Hindu Pm, A Buddhist PM and an American Hindu previously a governor of a state. I was one of the participants, a few diplomats also participated. We correctly picked Jinping, the Communist Head of China, Narendra Modi, the Hindu Pm of India, Shinzo Abe, the Buddhist PM of Japan but we lost the quiz when we learned that the American Hindu was Tulsi Gabbard. Any way we were happy to know that an honest politician was holding the post of PM in India. Shinzo Abe has been assassinated and Tulsi Gabbard is silent. Jinping and Narendra Modi are facing each other telling each other, we are sailing in the same boat. But no body has called for the assassination of Narendra Modi. Modi is like any other politician, democratically elected to head a government when a new global order has emerged. There is a need for vibrant, dynamic and   a visionary to lead the country. Such a type of politician needs to be searched as the present generation of politicians whether in opposition or in in the ruling party have outlived their relevance. They cannot think beyond caste, creed and hunger for money, power, and glory. With caste census, apartheid is official in India. A new type of Cold war may emerge in a dangerously polarized society. Every cast will be acting against each other. Marginalized castes like Dalits are likely to be forced to submit to the so-called backward castes as these castes are notorious for committing atrocities against the Dalits. Social unrest and economic disparity are bound to create a killing field in which a few politicians would be there to cheer lead. If Modi is to be replaced by democratic means, he must be replaced by an astute politician and not by a criminal Communal tension is rising everywhere There is one area, India is becoming culturally homogeneous, and we are witnessing the unanticipated decline of secularism. The global economy is multi polar and so too is global politics Under Modi, neither reflects an Initialization of the world. However much the India likes to portray itself as the creator and champion of   civil and political human rights the exclusion of social and economic ones distinguishes it from most other countries in both the developed and developing world. Indian goods, values and practices do not really define other cultures any more, even though they may contribute elements to them.

 FINAL WORDS. Putin and Modi are human beings. Let the slayers realize that life is precious and necessary for   well being of society.

GOLDEN TRIANGLE IN INDIA.

By K P Paswan.

 Here is a small state in the North West region of India which has been virtually abandoned by the PM Narendra Modi. It is a state being governed by bribery and nepotism, practices failing to deliver basic human services, Religion wise. there are two group of people Hinduism and Christianity. Meitei who subscribe Hinduism.  Manipur politics produced a gall that rose like the stench   of the garbage that has accumulated on the capital IMPHAL street because officials cannot figure out where to put it. Indian constitution which guarantees government position all religions was intended to balance the interests and needs of a diverse cosmopolitan nation. But in reality, it provides semi-permanent employment for self-dealing elites in political parties that look after themselves, rather than greater good.  The misrule had sent the state ‘s economy into free fall, and half the residents in Imphal lived in poverty. After Meitei, Kukis are the largest minority group. Mizoram is a Kuki dominated state and except Mizoram Kukis are not welcomed in Nagaland and Meghalya. Kukis in Manipur are illegal migrants of Myanmar, driven away by the aggressive Buddhists.  Mrs. Ang Sui the Nobel in peace was educated in a prestigious college of New Delhi and speaks flawless Hindi. The million-dollar question, why the military rulers of Myanmar are also dead against the Kukis. It is so because they are highly expert in poppy cultivation. It was the first PM of India who tried to become an Iconoclast but became a source for all the evils of the North West. Kukis enjoy the status of Scheduled Tribes and occupy most of the cultivatable land. Top political figures who enjoyed the patronage of Congress  have switched over to the ruling party at the center

HELPLESS BUREAUCRACY.  Officers of Indian Administrative service are posted in these states. A true and interesting incident is narrated. A few I.A.S officers were victims of extortions in these Kukis dominated areas. Three of them resigned and once again appeared in the civil services. One of them became an IPS and is posted in Hindi belt while two others joined private firms. As recently as in 2022 one of the IAS officers shouted at the top of his voice in the capital of a state at “I must have murdered several Dalits in my previous life, that’s why I got this bloody cadre’’.  Who is responsible for this lamentable state of affairs? Unless drastic measures are taken by the central authority nothing can be done. Indira Gandhi bombed a particular state she should have bomb the place to the stone age. Nothing has changed and nothing is going to change,

 Since the Meitei Hindus  are at the receiving end, they also demanded the status of ST and that was guaranteed by the judiciary and this infuriated the illegal migrants who were helped by Mizoram. Mizoram is a small state but launched a war against India for a separate sovereign state and the boldest PM of India Indira Gandhi bombed Mizoram. In my view it should have been bombed to stone age. Later on, Mizos realized the consequences of demanding a sovereign state and unwillingly accepted the Indian constitution but Mizos are being guided by foreign missionaries and non Mizos are looked down as strangers. Kukis were driven by the govt of Myanmar. While they infiltrated into Manipur, several facilities like the status of St to the Kukis were already available.

 Now enter the Golden Triangle a term used most probably by the British it is a group of countries comprising Myanmar and Thailand and which are infamous for poppy cultivation. The famous Opium war in China must be seen in the context of flourishing of Opium trade in Myanmar. But with introductions of the concept of a welfare state along with democratic principles, the Golden Triangle lost its value but the failure of industrialization of Myanmar. Thailand and surrounding countries resulted in unemployment on a large scale. In Thailand tourism assumed the status of an industry but in Myanmar rice, oil and natural gas continued to be the source of income Myanmar is rich in oil and natural gas but the industries are being controlled by foreigners especially the Americans for whom all methods are necessary if you make profit in a big way

There are certain countries in Latin America and Asia infamous for harvesting narcotics. Political structures of entire Latin America centered around certain Drug Cartel notorious for drug trafficking and gang wars. Some of the narcotics are less potent and less profitable but narcotics grown in Afghanistan and Myanmar is highly profitable and much in demand. Some of the influential politicians are involved in harvesting Cocaine.

 Mexico, the neighbor of US is famous for Drug Cartels and former president of Mexico is accused of receiving bribes from drug lords. There is notorious Golden Crescent comprising Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran. Drug addicts and drug trafficking are common in these coiuntries and attempts to end this triangle has ended in failure. It is so because that drug lords enjoy political patronage, in Afghanistan, drug lords decide the political structures of the country. Narcotics grown in Afghanistan are exported illegally throughout the world.

PM of India Mr Modi is maintaining studied silence over Manipur, he has no option but to remain silent. If Modi is replaced by another politician, there will be nothing for him but follow the policy of Modi. The kukis in Manipur are not welcomed except in Mizoram which still dream a separate and sovereign state, Foreign missionaries are very active and with active help from certain political leaders, the Mizos are keeping their agitation alive. If the Meitei are recognized as Scheduled Tribe than it will be blow to the illegal migrants from neighboring countries. Meitei will have equal rights and the poppy cultivation will not be monopolized by the kukis. Some of the influential Meitei are also engaged in cultivation of poppy and they will not share the booty with others. Solutions at this stage is not possible.  India has porous border with Myanmar’s Ang Sui, the popular leader of Myanmar wanted to become a deity of the Buddhist country, instead she is not welcomed by her own people.   Myanmar is  a country where drug trafficking was never dealt with iron hand. The Kukis are in a better position to revive the poppy harvesting in Manipur as per their wish. Both the grand old party and the political party at the Centre are in some way or other are linked with the Kukis. Unless Indian soldiers penetrate deep into Myanmar and destroy the strongholds of Kukis, Revival of golden triangle remain a  possibility. PM Modi cannot do any thing neither the opposition parties who are more opportunists than patriots

FINAL THOUGHT. Bilateral and if necessary trilateral talks consisting of India, China and Myanmar is required to address the situation. China is also supplying weapons to anti nationals to foment troubles in the North East. Oppositions are shedding crocodiles’ tears for certain imaginary atrocities committed by Meities and Kukis against each other. Rapes and killing of rivals are common all over the world if the war is for drug cultivation.  After successful revival of Golden Crescent in Afghanistan, the arrival of Golden Triangle may be slowed but cannot be totally stopped,

SANCTIONS, PAST AND PRESENT

 

By K P Paswan.

 We hear a lot about political, economic and even social sanctions, being used as lethal weapons against certain nations ruled by belligerents’ autocrats or even democratically elected government. This is the age of globalization; no country is completely self-sufficient. A few countries produce oil and natural gas which is essential for the entire world. US still imports fertilizers from Russia despite of sanctions. A small Qatar is being ruled by an autocrat who thinks himself above the mightiest political figure of this plant and the reason is that Qatar has lot of oil and natural gas. A few countries are known for manufacturing drugs necessary for survival for the human race. These drugs are being sold to all the countries. Previously international trade was being regularized by UNCTADE which has been replaced by the famous or infamous WTO. It is difficult to regularize international trade as the money launderers and smugglers have devised way and means to avoid these regulations.

There is no centralized to monitor genuine sanctions. Both N Korea and Myanmar are under house arrest owing to sanctions, while Myanmar is crying loudly, N korea is being supported covertly by China, Russia and Iran. India was sanctioned when the late PM Indira Gandhi conducted nuclear test but sanctions imposed upon India was symbolic. India is not an aggressive state but determined to protect its sovereignty from a greedy rogue neighbor and an overambitious China. With an open democracy Indian economy is witnessing sustained growth despite of sanctions and many ups and down.

  It is difficult say when and who initiated Sanctions but from certain historical facts it appears Sanctions were imposed by certain countries upon their opponents.

 Let us consider the fate of  Athens, the capital of modern Greek 2400 years ago. It decreed trade embargo on neighboring Megara, but the ensuing 27 years struggle left Athenians humiliated and Megara’s ally Corinth, triumphant, this is found in the history of Greek, that may be the first instance of sanctions failing, but there are plenty of more recent cases In the 20^th Century, they were used ever more often, especially by American Presidents.  Japan was sanctioned by Franklin Roosevelt in 1940, Eisenhower smacked them on Great Britain to end the Suez venture. Jimmy Carter punished the Soviet Union in 1980 with a wheat embargo and an Olympic boycott. Ronald Regan imposed them in protest at Martial law in Poland

 Congress in US too came to see sanctions as an easy cheap way of expression. In 1996 for example Belize, Colombia, Italy Mexico, Panama and Venezuela were all under American embargo beastliness to Whales or Dolphins’. In the next five years US imposed 85 new sanctions on foreign states

Sanctions may feel better than nothing, they are less feeble than scolding an Ambassador than sending in the marines. They provide a fission of moral satisfaction. And some times they work --- ending Britain’s Suez foray, for example.

Spotting the failure is easier, The League of Nation’s sanctions did not protect Abyssinia against Italy. The UN did not do better with Saddam Hussein Harsh regimes are still working in Iraq under American embargo. Never mind Myanmar and Sudan and never mind Cuba sanctioned in 1962. Regime change may not necessarily end of sanctions but behavior change may suffice the morality of punishing poor people who live in a boycotted autocracy is dubious. It makes the regime more popular or powerful. Saddam Hussain ensured that sanctions hurt chiefly the innocents. Security provides an excuse for rationing, permits and licenses creating corruptions, favoritism   and a black market which the regime can control. Floridian’s complaints were added to the more familiar ones of American farmers and business man. Whose markets shrink with every wheat embargo or investment boycott. Sanctions in US alone cost near nearly 15 billion dollars and they affected 200000 workers. No wonder that sanctions especially unilaterally imposed ones like America’s ban on trade with Cuba, cause frictions among the allies.

 Sanctions may have other results too. Armed embargo turned South Africa into a huge maker, then exporter of guns and encouraged Pakistan to go nuclear. In Haiti the misery the caused in 1990 washed thousands of refugees up on America’s coast. Sanctions are not necessarily futile They may have some value simply in expressing condemnation. But they work best when clearly defined and with an achievable end. If that is not achieved, as in 1990 when the UNO ordered Iraq, in vain to withdraw from Kuwait than it can at least be argued that using force is justified. It helps too, if a mechanism for ending sanctions is made clear at the outset.; they are easier to impose than to lift, and the sanctioned regime is   unlikely to make even small concessions if these are not greeted with some easing of the boycott. Moreover, after years of ritual blacklisting fatigues set among the boycotters. If they are to work, sanctions must be imposed by as many countries as possible.

The fashion is now for SMART sanctions which try to isolate and hurt the regime and its cronies, not the innocents But the people sanctioned must mind. One other problem arises from the new urge  to isolate odious leaders. Such people already tend to be remote from reality. They are surrounded by yes men  and often ignorant of   other countries Increasing their isolation may be dangerous, It is not farfetched  to argue that  the nastiest  wars of the 29^th century could have been averted  had the aggressor known what would be followed If the part of the blame for two WW, Korean, Falkland and the Gulf wars, lay with the failures of others  to convey the  appropriate message , part also lay with  the isolation and ignorance  on which the aggressors  based their misjudgments.  Arguably offending nations should be brought to closer reality, not driven deeper into   the realm of ghastly fantasy. History holds lesion for the sanctioners as well as the sanctioned.

 FINAL THOUGHT. At present Iran is fearing worst kind of sanctions. Iran’s economy is based upon oil and natural with less manufacturing activities in other fields Iran may face sanctions as this oil rich country is bent upon acquiring Nukes at all cost. It does not fear existential threat but the overambitions of a few religious leaders may put entire Iran under house arrest. Worst fear is that US and its allies may consider a variety of alternative options from cyber-attacks disabling Iranian infrastructures to massive sanctions on third parties doing business with Iran.

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY.

 

By K P Paswan

 What is so special of foreign policy of India? Is Narendra Modi different from the PM of UK or the Chancellor of Germany or the PM of Japan. We will try to find a possible answer.

 Narendra Modi is neither an angel or devil. He is an elected PM of an open democracy. Indian foreign policy also demonstrates economic development.

 Modi is not the last man standing but certainly he is the last of the Mohican. No political figures in power is above criticism and Modi is not an exception.   Change of guard may shape Indian Foreign Policy. New global order is not understood by politicians in the opposition camp. With Caste Census, apartheid is now official in India. India is the only country in the world which survives on the caste-oriented politics. Modi is a popular political figure and to dislodge him from power, the opposition has formed a platform popularly known as I.N.D, I, A. A closer look at this strange platform with strange name reveal that almost every member is old jail bird and old sinner. Some are outside of jail while a good number of politicians are standing in Q to enter jail with smile on his face. NDA led by NarendraModi is also not above board but at least Modi is there to control them. 

There was a minister in the cabinet of Modi named Arun Jetli. He was an excellent English speaker; his honesty was unquestionable but he used to shield corrupt politicians belonging to the Grand Old Party. He was more popular amongst the Modi’s haters than in NDA. If Modi is to be replaced, he must be replaced by a seasoned politician and certainly not by a jail bird belonging to INDIA.

AGE OF HUMILIATIONS. ESSENCE OF INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY

Indian foreign policy has been drafted  as per prevailing international politics. At the time of independence, India was an underdeveloped country  Education was the privelege of a few Indians. Faster Dulles , the Secretary of State of US had a dig at India when he declared that countries which don’t support US are enemies of US. USSR supported India when the first PM introduced Five year plans, Soviet Unions helped India to establish heavy industries but at what cost? Mixed economy was the cornerstone of five-year plans, but it was not properly evaluated or tested. Steels mills were established like Bhilai, Bokaro etc all of them have become sick as new technology was not available in the Soviet Union. Stock market was not in operation and except Tata and Birla no private industries flourished, however small manufacturing units continued to flourish.

 DEVELOPMENT. Pt Nehru described new manufacturing units as new Temples of India, But Mixed economy was total failure. And by 1980 all the manufacturing and public undertaking except Indian Oil Corporation and Steel Authority of India,  were declared as sick. It was only after opening of Indian economy that gradually foreign investment starting pouring into India but not like China wher American investment reached at its zenith.

  Coming to Indian Foreign Policy,a former officer of Indian foreign service is holding the post of Foreign Minister of India. As expected, an experience hand in foreign affairs is in a position to understand the complex diplomacy which has emerged along with new global order. US is still a super power with capacity to explore the outer space  and introduce technology beneficial and destructive to the human race. As an economic power, China has reduced the hegemony of the US  and it is itself trying to expand its undefined political influence. India had cultural relations with China since the dawn of civilization but in modern times cultural relations is no more a binding force. China has humiliated India in 1962 and is still  trying to dictate politics of India. China is funding anti Indian elements who foment troubles for financial gains.  But China  is not in a position to humiliate India. With increase in foreign investment India has  achieved  sustained economic growth. Contrary to popular belief China has not grabbed Indian territory either in Galvan valley or somewhere else. Under such circumstance’s diplomacy may play an important role in averting trouble with China. Shadow diplomacy is undergoing between China and India, US has replaced China as the largest trading partner

  India has border disputes with China and Pakistan. India fought several war with Pakistan, After independence Indian foreign policy was shaped by Pt Nehru who was also the Foreign Minister  of India.  He did not allow Cold War to cloud the Indian politics. Being an underdeveloped country India had no effective role to play between two super powers , India advocated a policy of non-alignment  while Pakistan signed the Bagdad pact under which CEATO a defence organization was formed, it means Pakistan was protected by US. However in the case of China, India faced uncertain diplomacy. While India recognized Chinese suzerainty over Tibet, China was not allowed to draw Line of Control as per its own plan. The result was Indo China war in 1962 in which India lost a large swath in Tibet and in north frontier Agency. So, It was an era of Cold war in which brilliant  diplomats, both foreign and Indian like Else worth bunker Dean Rusk(Secretary of State  of US. S  Nagarkety, Y Gundevia  from India  were playing important roles. But humiliations of India did not end.

With opening of economy after 1990 Indian Foreign Policy was molded as per new  changing dynamics of diplomacy between India and other developed nations. Collapse of USSR mean not only the collapse of  Non Alignment  but also the end of closed economy  and in its place emerging economy in India started influencing foreign policy.

 ECONOMY. Whether Narendra Modi survives the next election or not but he is responsible for the present state of emerging economy, For a country like India beset with caste and creed, he realised that India could not generate a strong voice without an emerging economy. True the economic has returned to growth,  but a big part of it consists of restocking  after a savage down turn  that has left inventeries depleted but for that the brutal virus is accountable. In no point  over the coming decades  will the defecit be below  3-5% of GDP  This is itself a reflection of the economic policy which has shaped foreign policy.   The former Governor of RBI made a mess of Indian banking system. At present Indian banking system is highly praised by World Bank.

If N Modi is replaced than his successor  will inherit a strong economy if at the behest of incompetent economist, he may have the choice of bringing down the defecit to  to a sustainable  which means no more than 3% og GDP.. Taxation has to be increased and all kinds of Freebies are to be removed, No government dared to implement this deadly plan.

So there are indications that India may see humiliation if any change in economic policy pirsued by Modi is initiated, as it will badly impact  a rational foreign policy.

 Final Thought. A sustained growth has influenced foreign policy of India. The days of humiliations are over. Let us hope it will continue.